No opinion today on tariffs from the US Supreme Court

The waiting continues.

The US Supreme Court works in mysterious ways. The announced on Tuesday that this would be a ‘decision day’ but the court always has a large number of decisions to make and they don’t pre-announce which one it will be.

They technically have until June to make the tariff decision but because it was an expedited hearing with important economic effects, it’s expected in January or February. As for the exact date, there is a large amount of work before the Supreme Court in the week beginning January 19, so that’s a good bet.

Until then, we will continue to wait for ‘decision day’ announcements and then prepare accordingly.

For stocks with large tariff exposure, this is a tough trading paradigm because we don’t know what’s coming. For what it’s worth, the administration sounds pretty confident that it can quickly reconstitute tariffs but whether those hold up may depend on what the Court says about these tariffs and the reasoning, particularly if they rule it’s a ‘major question’, which is something that needs to go through Congress.

“Our ‌expectation is that ⁠we’re going to ​win, and if we don’t win,
then we know that we’ve got other tools ​that we could use that get us
to the same place,” Hassett said in an ⁠interview on CNBC earlier today.

Hassett specified that Section 301 would be part of the mix and that Greer is leading it (itself a bit of a clue). They’ve previously said it could also include Section 122 tariffs. See: How the White House will pivot if the Supreme Court strikes down current tariffs

Ultimately, I think this was a good dress rehearsal but if this continues into February, it’s going to get tiresome for markets as it adds unnecessary uncertainty.

The decision that was rendered today was on Bowe vs United States and the court ruled that federal prisoners are not barred from filing “do-over” claims in second or successive postconviction motions and that the Court has the jurisdiction to review such certification decisions.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.