The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 05 January 2026

Again, as expected, it was a relatively quiet, holiday-interrupted trading week last week; however, overall stock markets managed to hold on to their annual gains into the first trading day of 2026. News of US strikes against Venezuela over the weekend could see a lively start to the trading week at the Monday open, and traders will be keeping a close eye on updates from that region as the week progresses.

This week sees the return of ‘normal’ trading conditions for markets and the first ‘Non-Farms Friday’ for a few months. The major focus will be on US jobs data, with four major updates due during the week, and given the Fed’s focus on the US job market, traders are expecting to see plenty of volatility around the releases.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

It is a relatively quiet start to the first Monday of the New Year, with little in terms of data on the calendar for the first couple of sessions of the day. However, geopolitical updates over the weekend could see some moves on the Asian open. The New York session does see the first major US data release of the year in the form of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices data shortly after the open; however, expect data later in the week to have more of an impact.

Tuesday looks to be the quietest day of the week on the macroeconomic calendar, with nothing of note scheduled across all three trading sessions. We do have an update from the Fed’s Thomas Barkin later in the day, but once again, data later in the week should keep markets relatively quiet.

The data kicks off in earnest on Wednesday, with the initial focus in the Asian session being on Australian markets, with key CPI data due out early in the day. The London session sees the release of the latest Flash Eurozone CPI numbers, but the New York session is likely to be livelier. The first jobs numbers out of the US come out early in the day when the ADP Non-Farm data is released, and this is followed by the JOLTS Job Openings data and the ISM Service PMI numbers. Canadian Ivey PMI numbers are also scheduled, as well as the usual weekly US Crude Oil Inventory data, so traders are expecting a busy final session of the day.

Thursday looks to be a bit quieter again this week. There is nothing major scheduled in the Asian session; however, key Swiss CPI data out early in the London session will likely see volatility in the franc. The New York session has the latest Weekly Unemployment Claims numbers due out, but most players are expecting a quieter session ahead of Friday’s big employment data drop.

It’s the first Non-Farms Friday for a few months, and traders are expecting a very lively last session of the week. The Asian session does see the release of Chinese CPI and PPI data early in the day, but the real focus will be on the key US data due out shortly after the New York open. Canadian employment data is due out at the same time, but these are expected to be superseded by the release of the US Non-Farm Payroll, Average Hourly Earnings, and Unemployment Rate data releases.

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