General Market Analysis – 14/01/26

US Equities Fall Despite Weaker Inflation Data – Dow down 0.8%
US equity markets moved lower overnight, with stocks retreating despite a slightly softer-than-expected Core CPI reading. Bank stocks led the decline as new credit card law proposals weighed, pushing the Dow Jones down 0.80% to 49,191, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.19% to 6,963 and the Nasdaq eased 0.10% to 23,709. In rates markets, Treasury yields finished the session little changed. The 2-year yield edged 0.2 basis points lower to 3.533%, while the 10-year yield rose marginally by 0.4 basis points to 4.179%, reflecting a cautious but stable rates outlook. The US dollar regained momentum, with the DXY rising 0.28% to 99.17, recovering most of the prior session’s losses. Commodities were mixed. Oil prices extended their rally as traders continued to price in Iranian supply risks, with Brent crude climbing 2.43% to $65.42 per barrel and WTI rising 2.69% to $61.10. Gold pulled back modestly from record highs, easing 0.24% to $4,586.52, though prices remain elevated amid lingering geopolitical and policy uncertainty.

Trump Set to Influence Markets Strongly Again in 2026
There is no doubt that the President of the United States has significant power to move markets, given that they run the biggest economy in the world, but most investors and traders will also confirm that President Trump has probably been the most market-moving President in history. If the first couple of weeks of 2026 are anything to go by, that pattern looks set to continue in the trading year ahead. Since we hit the new year, we have already seen US actions in Venezuela and Iran heavily contributing to moves in petro products and overall risk, while proposed new legislation and legal threats have weighed strongly on local US markets. In addition to this, we have a potential Supreme Court ruling coming out later today on the President’s controversial tariff measures and their legality, which is also guaranteed to see strong reactions across financial markets. In short, for most traders, it has been a case of: hope you enjoyed your December holidays, strap in for another volatile ride in 2026.

US Session in Focus Again for Traders
Looking ahead, the macroeconomic calendar remains quiet through the Asian and European sessions once again; however, geopolitics should ensure that the market remains lively. This is especially true in the Asian session, where traders will be monitoring political updates throughout the day in Japan as to whether a snap election will be held. The yen saw some strong moves on the back of this yesterday, and traders are expecting more today. The main calendar focus for the day will again be on the New York session, where markets will digest a heavy US data slate, including Producer Price Index (exp +0.2% m/m and Core +0.2% m/m) and Retail Sales figures (exp +0.5%, Core +0.4% m/m) early in the day. This is followed by Existing Home Sales (exp 4.21 mio) data, and we will also hear from several Federal Reserve officials, including members Miran, Bostic, Williams, Kashkari, and Paulson.

Explore all upcoming market events in the Economic Calendar.

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