China meets trade pledge with surge in US soybean purchases, but keeps Brazil option open

China’s rapid US soybean buying meets a near-term trade goal, but future demand hinges on price, politics and Brazilian supply.

Summary:

• China bought about 12m tonnes of US soybeans in three months

• Purchases met a key trade pledge made in November

• Buying largely by state firms for strategic reserves

• Tariff cuts and eased restrictions enabled imports

• Focus shifts to whether buying continues toward 2028 target

China has sharply increased purchases of US soybeans over the past three months, buying an estimated 12 million tonnes and fulfilling a key trade commitment made to the Donald Trump administration in November, according to traders familiar with the flows.

The buying marks a notable shift after months of relative avoidance, with most of the volumes reportedly sourced by state-owned firms and directed into strategic reserves rather than immediate commercial consumption. Traders say the surge was enabled by Beijing’s decision to reduce tariffs and lift import restrictions, clearing the way for US cargoes to move again after a prolonged lull.

The purchases appear designed to meet near-term political and strategic objectives, while giving Beijing flexibility over future sourcing. China has committed to buying 25 million tonnes of US soybeans annually through 2028, and the recent surge means it has already completed nearly half of that implied yearly target in a short window.

Attention is now turning to whether China maintains the pace. Traders note that Chinese buyers have already begun booking new-crop soybeans from Brazil, a reminder that South America remains a critical alternative supplier and a key lever in China’s broader procurement strategy. Seasonal availability, pricing differentials and freight costs will likely shape the balance between US and Brazilian supply in coming months.

For the US, the renewed demand offers support to soybean prices and export volumes after a volatile period marked by trade tensions and shifting policy signals. For China, the purchases help bolster food security and strategic reserves while keeping diplomatic commitments intact without fully locking in future buying behaviour.

The episode highlights Beijing’s continued preference for diversification and timing flexibility in agricultural imports. While the 12 million tonnes bought so far satisfy an immediate pledge, the larger test will be whether China sustains US purchases at scale alongside Brazilian imports as it works toward the multi-year target through 2028.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.