Here we go again … WSJ: US seeks Cuba regime change after Venezuela precedent

The Trump administration is quietly pressing for regime change in Cuba, betting economic fragility and internal pressure can succeed where decades of US coercion failed.

Summary:

• WSJ reports US seeking Cuba regime change by year-end

• Strategy follows Venezuela leadership removal

• Focus on economic pressure and internal defections

• Oil supply and medical missions targeted

• Transition risks seen as higher than Venezuela

According to reporting by the Wall Street Journal (gated), the Trump administration is actively seeking to engineer regime change in Cuba by the end of the year, emboldened by its recent operation to remove Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and convinced that Havana is now more economically vulnerable than at any point in decades.

US officials cited by the Journal believe Cuba’s economy is nearing collapse, largely due to the loss of subsidised Venezuelan oil that has underpinned the island’s energy supply since the early 2000s. With that support fading, Washington is attempting to identify insiders within the Cuban government who might be willing to negotiate an off-ramp from Communist rule, which has dominated the island for nearly 70 years.

The administration does not yet have a detailed blueprint for political transition, but senior officials see the Venezuela operation as both a template and a warning. The January 3 raid that led to Maduro’s capture was reportedly aided by a defector from within his inner circle, a precedent US officials hope could be replicated in Cuba. While there has been no public threat of military action against Havana, officials privately describe the Venezuela raid as an implicit signal of US capability and intent.

President Donald Trump has publicly urged Cuban leaders to strike a deal “before it’s too late,” warning that no further oil or financial support would be allowed to reach the island. Behind the scenes, officials have also targeted Cuba’s overseas medical missions, a critical source of hard currency, through visa bans and sanctions aimed at those accused of facilitating the program.

US intelligence assessments reportedly paint a bleak picture of Cuba’s economy, citing chronic shortages of fuel, food and medicine, alongside frequent power outages. Officials believe cutting off remaining Venezuelan oil flows could bring the economy to a standstill within weeks.

However, the Journal notes that Cuba presents a more complex challenge than Venezuela. Unlike Caracas, Havana lacks a legal opposition movement, regular elections or a broad-based civil society, raising questions over how a transition could be managed and who might replace the current leadership. Even some Trump allies privately acknowledge the risk that regime collapse could trigger instability and humanitarian strain — outcomes the administration sought to avoid in Venezuela.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.