Place your bets on what Congress will cobble together on the weekend

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There are no good bets on Congress

There are no good bets on Congress

Equity markets are paring losses late. One of the reasons people are pointing to is talk that Microsoft is in talks to buy TikTok’s US operations. I’m not sure I buy that given that shares of MSFT are only up 1% on the reports but it might be some kind of good news for China-US relations.

I’m more inclined to think that month-end flows are the story.

In any case, what I’m more sure of is that Congressional meetings on the weekend about a coronavirus aid package will determine how Monday’s trade goes. Meadows, Pelosi, Schumer and Mnuchin will meet again Saturday morning.

I hate to make any kind of bet on Congress. Sure, we all assume they’ll come up with something eventually — just like the debt ceiling — but it’s a game of chicken and there’s a lot of ground to cover in two days.

There’s also the risk that a deal leaves consumers far short of $600/week or expires at a time (lame duck or pre-election) that sparks a real benefits cliff.

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