AUD/USD Forecast: Eyes on Australian inflation figures

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AUD/USD Current Price: 0.7507

  • Australian annual RBA Trimmed Mean CPI is seen at 1.8% in Q3.
  • The poor performance of Wall Street limited AUD/USD advance.
  • AUD/USD is technically bullish and could break through its monthly high in the near term.

The AUD/USD pair seesawed between gains and losses, adding a handful of pips on Wednesday to settle just above the 0.7500 threshold. The pair peaked at 0.7524 during the European session as US stocks futures jumped to unexplored territory, later retreating as American indexes pulled back. Nevertheless, the pair holds near the upper end of its monthly range, retaining its bullish potential intact. Gold prices were sharply down, but the aussie held on to modest gains, another sign that bulls are in control of the pair.

Australia is opening its macroeconomic calendar on Wednesday, publishing Q3 inflation figures. The Consumer Price Index is seen steady at 0.8% QoQ, while the annual comparison is expected at 3.1%, down from the previous 3.8%. The annual RBA Trimmed Mean CPI is seen at 1.8% in the quarter, up from 1.6% in Q2.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

The AUD/USD pair is posting gains for a second consecutive day but remains below the high posted last week at 0.7545. The bullish potential is intact, according to the daily chart, as the pair keeps developing below a bullish 20 SMA, which aims to cross beyond the 100 SMA. At the same time, technical indicators have resumed their advances after correcting extreme overbought conditions, reflecting strong buying interest.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the pair offers a neutral-to-bullish stance. It has been meeting buyers around a flat 20 SMA, as the 100 SMA keeps advancing beyond the 200 SMA, both below the current level. Technical indicators have bounced modestly from around their midlines, reflecting the absence of selling interest.

Support levels: 0.7490 0.7450 0.7400  

Resistance levels: 0.7550 0.7590 0.7625

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