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EUR/USD Analysis: Oscillates between pivotal Fibo. levels ahead of Eurozone/US PMIs
EUR/USD Analysis: Oscillates between pivotal Fibo. levels ahead of Eurozone/US PMIs

EUR/USD Analysis: Oscillates between pivotal Fibo. levels ahead of Eurozone/US PMIs

178005   October 22, 2021 12:29   FXStreet   Market News  

  • A goodish pickup in the USD demand prompted some selling around EUR/USD on Thursday.
  • The risk-off impulse, elevated US bond yields acted as a tailwind for the safe-haven buck.
  • The downside remains cushioned as investors await Friday’s release of Eurozone/US PMIs.

The EUR/USD pair struggled to capitalize on its modest intraday uptick and once again met with some fresh supply near the 1.1665-70 region on Thursday. The downtick was sponsored by a pickup in demand for the US dollar, which drew some support from the cautious market mood. Worries about contagion from China Evergrande’s debt crisis resurfaced after the heavily indebted developer was forced to abandon proposed asset disposal. The development could result in a formal default when the grace period on one of its dollar bonds expires on Friday.

Apart from this, a fresh leg up in the US Treasury bond yields turned out to be another factor that underpinned the greenback. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond rose to 1.683%, or the highest level since May 13 amid expectations for an early policy tightening by the Fed. Investors seem convinced that the Fed would be forced to adopt a more aggressive policy response to contain stubbornly high inflation. The speculations were reinforced by comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, saying that the US central bank may have to act faster if inflation remains too high.

The greenback was further boosted by better than expected US macro releases – Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and housing market data. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment-related benefits dropped to 290K, or a 19-month low during the week ended October 15 and pointed to a tightening labour market. Separately, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index fell to 23.8 in October from 30.7 previous, though was offset by a surge in Existing Home Sales to an eight-month high in September. The data remained supportive of the bid tone surrounding the greenback and dragged the pair to the overnight swing lows.

The overnight downfall, however, lacked any follow-through amid a subdued USD price action during the Asian session on Friday. Investors also seemed reluctant to place aggressive bets, rather preferred to wait for the release of flash Eurozone/US PMI prints. The data will draw plenty of attention on the last day of the week and infuse some volatility around the major. Apart from this, the US bond yields and the broader market risk sentiment, will influence the USD price dynamics and further allow traders to grab some short-term opportunities.

Technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the recent recovery move from YTD lows, so far, has been capped near a resistance marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the 1.1909-1.1525 downfall. Moreover, technical indicators on the daily chart – though have been recovering from the bearish territory – are yet to confirm a positive bias. This makes it prudent to wait for a strong follow-through buying beyond the mentioned barrier before positioning for any further appreciating move.

That said, any subsequent move up might confront a stiff resistance near the 1.1700 confluence region, comprising of 50-day SMA and the 50% Fibo. level. A sustained strength beyond will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pus the pair towards the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the 1.1765 region. The momentum could further get extended and allow bulls to aim back to reclaim the 1.1800 round-figure mark.

On the flip side, the 23.6% Fibo. level, around the 1.1620 region, now seems to have emerged as immediate support. A convincing breakthrough, leading to a subsequent slide below the 1.1600 mark, will negate any near-term positive bias. The pair might then turn vulnerable to slide back towards challenging YTD lows, around the 1.1525 area. Some follow-through selling below the key 1.1500 psychological mark will set the stage for the resumption of the recent downtrend from September monthly swing highs.

fxsoriginal

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China Evergrande makes $83.5 million bond interest payment
China Evergrande makes $83.5 million bond interest payment

China Evergrande makes $83.5 million bond interest payment

178004   October 22, 2021 12:29   FXStreet   Market News  

The risk appetite is returning to Asia this Friday after China Evergrande makes a payment of $83.5 million in lieu of the bond interest, Reuters reports, citing China’s Securities Times.

The indebted Chinese property development giant made the payment on Thursday, October 21.

Further, Reuters reports, citing a source, that Evergrande wired funds to a trustee account for a bond interest payment, which was due on September 23.

The payment of the bond interest rescued the property giant from a formal default, helping save the face of the Chinese authorities ahead of the country’s biggest annual political event.

Another $45m payment is due on October 29, which was also due late September with a 30-day grace period. 

Market reaction

Investors cheered this encouraging news, as the Asian stocks extended the gains while boosting the riskier currencies across the fx board.

AUD/USD jumped to test daily highs at 0.7490, adding 0.25% on the day. The S&P 500 futures post small losses so far this Friday.

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD advances toward $1,790 amid softer USD

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD advances toward $1,790 amid softer USD

178002   October 22, 2021 12:26   FXStreet   Market News  

Update: Gold prices remain on the path for weekly gains on Friday, following the previous four sessions’ upside momentum. The selling pressure in the US dollar keeps the precious metal on the gaining spree. The greenback trades below 94.00 since the beginning of the week despite higher US Treasury yields. Lower USD valuations make gold attractive to the other currencies holders.

Investors remain skeptical about the US rate hike bets. New York  Federal Reserve (Fed) President John Williams said long-run inflation expectations are in line with the central bank’s 2% goal. Few other Fed members played down rate hike prospects but remained affirmative on reducing the bond-buying measures.

The improved risk sentiment, following China’s Evergrande payment news, kept the gains limited in the bullion. Evergrande made a payment of $83.5 million in lieu of the bond interest on Thursday.

Gold (XAU/USD) refreshes intraday high to $1,787 during the four-day run-up amid early Friday. The yellow metal witnessed pullback the previous day amid firmer US dollar, on relation fears, but the latest sentiment-positive headlines seem to have favored the gold buyers.

Among the positive headlines were US President Joe Biden’s optimism for the infrastructure deal during the CNN town hall event and Evergrande news. Also favoring the risk appetite could be the vaccine news.

“President Joe Biden said on Thursday he was close to striking a deal to pass major infrastructure and social spending measures, after weeks of intraparty bickering among his fellow Democrats,” per Reuters.

On the other hand, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) tried to soothe the Evergrande-led jitters while citing the company filing with the Hong Kong stock exchange. “China Evergrande rival Hopson Development Holdings Limited, which had sought to buy half of the embattled developer’s property management unit, still considers the purchase agreement ‘legally binding’ despite Evergrande rescinding the sale on October 12,” said SCMP.

Additionally, China’s Securities Times came out with the news suggesting Evergrande paid an $83.5 million bond interest payment.

It should be noted that Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that the next few months will be critical to see whether inflation is transitory, as reported by Reuters. Before that, Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester highlighted inflation fears. Even so, mixed US data questioned pessimists but also didn’t allow the equity bulls to dominate further.

Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 Futures pare early Asian losses, down 0.07% at the latest, whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields remain firmer around 1.70%, recently up 1.9 basis points (bps) near 1.694%. Further, the US Dollar Index (DXY) keeps the previous day’s rebound near 93.75 by the press time.

Moving on, risk catalysts may entertain the gold traders ahead of the preliminary reading of October Markit Manufacturing PMI, expected 60.3 versus 60.7 prior. Given the fears of inflation, any further strength in the key data and/or details can propel the US dollar and weigh on the gold prices near the short-term key hurdle.

Technical analysis

Gold buyers battle inside a monthly rising wedge bearish chart pattern amid mixed signals from the MACD histogram and RSI line. Though, the 200-SMA and support line of the stated chart formation offers a tough nut to crack for the sellers around $1,769.

On the contrary, recovery moves need to post a clear run-up through the monthly horizontal resistance surrounding $1,790 to call back the gold buyers.

Following that, the monthly peak of $1,800 and the upper line of the wedge, close to $1,806, will precede the mid-September high of $1,808 to entertain the gold bulls. However, any further upside will need validation from the key $1,834 hurdle that stopped advances in July and September.

It’s worth noting that a downside break of $1,769 will theoretically trigger the south-run targeting the sub-$1,700 area. During the fall, multiple supports around $1,747 and $1,732 can test the gold sellers.

Overall, gold prices fade upside momentum but the bears need clear signals for entry.

Gold: Four-hour chart

Trend: Pullback expected

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US public pension fund pours $25 million into Bitcoin and Ether

US public pension fund pours $25 million into Bitcoin and Ether

178000   October 22, 2021 12:21   FXStreet   Market News  

  • A pension fund in the United States has decided to allocate $25 million to cryptocurrencies.
  • The Houston-based pension fund invested in Bitcoin and Ether through a partnership with the NYDIG.
  • The chief investment officer of the HFRRF believes that this allocation is a method of managing the fund’s risks. 

Institutional interest in cryptocurrencies continues to rise as a pension fund in the United States has made a substantial purchase in Bitcoin and Ether as the leading cryptocurrencies recently reached new all-time highs. 

Crypto became an asset class the fund ‘could not ignore’ 

The Houston Firefighters Relief and Retirement Fund (HFRRF), which has over $4 billion in assets, recently invested $25 million in Bitcoin and Ether through the New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG), a subsidiary of asset management firm Stone Ridge.

The chief investment officer of the HFRRF, Ajit Singh, stated that the recent investment in the top two cryptocurrencies by market capitalization was a tool to manage risks and that it has a positive expected return with little correlation to every other asset class.

Singh added that he preferred direct tokens rather than investing in futures-related products. He expects that with more institutional adoption in the crypto market, there would be an increase in dynamics that develop for supply and demand. He further stated that holding the physical assets would give the fund the possibility of income generation potential.

The firm has been studying the new asset class before adding Bitcoin and Ether to its investment portfolio. Singh concluded that cryptocurrencies became an asset class that the fund “could not ignore anymore.”

JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists believe that inflation concerns acted as the main fuel behind the crypto rally, driving Bitcoin and Ether to all-time highs rather than the hype generated by the first BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) launch in the United States.

The strategists added that the perception of Bitcoin as a better inflation hedge than gold is the main reason for the recent cryptocurrency surge, as investors have shifted away from gold ETFs into BTC funds since Q3.

Ethereum price retraces following all-time high

Ethereum price is searching for a foothold following its new all-time high that was reached on October 21. The prevailing inverse head-and-shoulders pattern projects a 25% rise from the chart pattern’s neckline, with a bullish target at $4,639.

The first line of defense for Ethereum price is at the support trend line at $3,974. Further support will emerge at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,793. Slicing below this level may see ETH tag the neckline of the technical pattern at $3,690.

ETHUSDT

ETH/USDT 12-hour chart

However, the bullish outlook would be ruined if Ethereum price falls toward the 50 twelve-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 100 twelve-hour SMA at $3,545 and $3,463, respectively.

Ethereum price must climb above the resistance level at $4,369 to put the optimistic target on the radar. 

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EUR/GBP defends 0.8400 ahead of critical EU/UK data
EUR/GBP defends 0.8400 ahead of critical EU/UK data

EUR/GBP defends 0.8400 ahead of critical EU/UK data

177999   October 22, 2021 12:05   FXStreet   Market News  

  • EUR/GBP trades marginally higher on Friday in the Asian trading hours.    
  • UK Retail Sales, Eurozone/ German PMIs remain the talk of the session.
  • UK Prime Minister Johnson cools down to compromise Brexit-led NI protocol terms.

EUR/GBP extends the previous session’s gains on Friday. The cross-currency pair managed to bounce higher after testing the yearly low at 0.8422 in the US session. At the time of writing, EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8431, up 0.07% for the day.

The shared currency gained some momentum against the British pound for the past two sessions on the expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will turn less dovish in the near future. The ECB policymaker Pierre Wunsch favored a gradual exit from the central bank’s expansionary monetary policy, as per Reuters. The Market anticipates that ECB could push forward interest rate hikes in 2022 against its early estimates of 2024. On the economic side, the Eurozone Consumer Confidence fell -4.8 in October from -4.00 in the previous month.

On the other hand, the sterling seems to enjoy the hawkish Bank of England (BOE) and the Brexit-lead optimism. BOE Chief economist Huw Pill said that UK inflation is likely to hit 5% in early 2022.

In addition to that, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson expressed his readiness to compromise terms relating to the Northern Ireland (NI) protocol to overcome the deadlock in Brexit talks. The gains were limited, following the dismal UK’s GfK Consumer Confidence data, which came at -17 in October as compared to -13 in the previous month.

It is worth mentioning that, S&P 500 Futures are trading at 4,537, down 0.09% for the day.

As for now, traders are waiting for the UK’s Retail Sales and the German/ EU PMIs data to gauge market sentiment data.

EUR/GBP additional levels

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USD/CNH Price Analysis: Thursday’s Doji keeps sellers hopeful

USD/CNH Price Analysis: Thursday’s Doji keeps sellers hopeful

177997   October 22, 2021 12:02   FXStreet   Market News  

  • USD/CNH reverses early Asian losses following a bearish candlestick formation.
  • MACD conditions, short-term falling trend line also favor sellers.
  • Bulls need validation from 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, September’s low.

USD/CNH picks up bids to $6.3955, recovering early-day losses ahead of the European session on Friday.

The offshore Chinese currency (CNH) pair printed a bearish Doji candlestick the previous day,  challenging a continuation of the rebound from a four-month low flashed earlier in the week.

Also favoring the sellers is the quote’s sustained trading below a downward sloping trend line from October 12 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) level of May-July upside amid bearish MACD signals.

That being said, the USD/CNH prices may initially test the $6.3800 area during fresh downside ahead of challenging the monthly low of $6.3685.

Following that, the yearly low marked in May, around $6.3525, will be in focus.

Alternatively, the stated resistance line and the key Fibo. level, respectively near $6.4135 and $6.4200, will challenge the quote’s recovery moves.

It should be noted, however, that the USD/CNH bulls should remain cautious until the quote stays below September’s low of $6.4245.

USD/CNH: Daily chart

Trend: Further weakness expected

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EUR/USD: Inflation fears defend bears above 1.1600, Eurozone, US PMIs eyed
EUR/USD: Inflation fears defend bears above 1.1600, Eurozone, US PMIs eyed

EUR/USD: Inflation fears defend bears above 1.1600, Eurozone, US PMIs eyed

177996   October 22, 2021 11:56   FXStreet   Market News  

  • EUR/USD reverses pullback from weekly top, sidelined of late.
  • Market sentiment dwindles even as ECB, Fed policymakers cite inflation fears.
  • US stimulus, China’s Evergrande and Sino-American trade deal news probe risk-off mood.
  • Preliminary readings of October’s Markit PMIs will be the key amid escalating reflation woes.

EUR/USD struggles to extend early Asian recovery moves around 1.1630 heading into Friday’s European session.

The major currency pair snapped a six-day uptrend the previous day on concerns that escalating price pressures in the US and Eurozone may push the respective central banks towards faster monetary policy normalization. However, sentiment-positive headlines challenged the sellers afterward.

While Fed Governor Christopher Waller followed Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester to highlight the inflation fears, New York Federal Reserve (Fed) President John Williams is the latest one to reiterate the phenomena. The same could be observed in the US inflation expectations, per the 10-year breakeven inflation rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, as the gauge jumps to a nine-year high.

On the other hand, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said on Thursday that supply bottlenecks are starting to weigh on the Italian economy and added that they could last for longer than expected, per Reuters.

It should be noted that the inflation chatters help the US Treasury yields to poke the key 1.70% level, a break of which triggered the US dollar rally in the past.

Following that, news concerning US President Joe Biden’s optimism over striking a deal to pass major infrastructure and social spending measures and chatters surrounding the Sino-American phase one trade deal tamed the pessimists. Additionally, Evergrande’s ability to pay a bond coupon and hopes of getting assets sold, despite prior rejection from Hopson, challenge the risk aversion wave.

While portraying the mood, stock futures recover and the US Dollar Index (DXY) fades the previous day’s rebound from a three-week top. Though, the US 10-year Treasury yields remain firmer around 1.69% and keep EUR/USD buyers hopeful ahead of the key PMI data for October.

October’s preliminary activity data for Germany and Eurozone will be the key after Italy flagged risk of heating inflation. Following that, the US Markit PMIs will be crucial to follow for fresh impulse. Given the firmer US Treasury yields, strong US data may recall the EUR/USD bears. Also important will be speeches from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly.

Technical analysis

EUR/USD formed a double top bearish chart pattern around 1.1665-70, also comprising 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of September 22 to October 12 downturn. Descending RSI line and sustained trading below 200-SMA (on the four-hour chart) also favor the pair sellers. However, the support line of a two-week-old ascending trend channel joins 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the stated short-term moves, also 23.6% Fibo. level of a decline from early September, restrict the quote’s immediate downside around 1.1620-15.

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AVAX breaks out of strong resistance, Avalanche path to $100 becomes clear
AVAX breaks out of strong resistance, Avalanche path to $100 becomes clear

AVAX breaks out of strong resistance, Avalanche path to $100 becomes clear

177995   October 22, 2021 11:56   FXStreet   Market News  

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

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GBP/USD eases below 1.3800 amid steady USD, UK Retail Sales eyed
GBP/USD eases below 1.3800 amid steady USD, UK Retail Sales eyed

GBP/USD eases below 1.3800 amid steady USD, UK Retail Sales eyed

177994   October 22, 2021 11:49   FXStreet   Market News  

  • GBP/USD pares initial gains on Friday in the Asian trading hours.
  • Higher US Treasury yields shield the underperformance of the US dollar.
  • Mixed play of US debt deal, Brexit headlines, and critical UK/US data set the tone for the day.

GBP/USD remains muted on the last trading day of the week. The pair remained pressured near 1.3830 as it failed to cross the level for the past few sessions. At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3794, up 0.02% for the day.

The market seems to be  fully discounted the  Bank of England’s (BOE) rate hikes expectations in November. Nick Bennenbroek, International Economist at Wells Fargo said after the initial November hike, there is expectation for another 25bps increase in May, 2022 and a further 25 bps in November 2022, which means ending the BOE’s policy rate cycle ending next year at 0.75%.

The Brexit-led optimism failed to uplift the sentiment surrounding the sterling, following the positive comments from the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson on the NI protocol.

The greenback managed to hold near 93.70 with minimum losses, tracing the higher US T-bonds yields at 1.68%. The US President Joe Biden remained positive on the passage of the major infrastructure and social spending measures. 

Mixed US data weighs negatively on the US dollar. The Existing Home Sales jumped 6.29 million units in September with a growth of 7% on monthly basis. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell 23.8 in October as compared to 30.7 in September. The US Initial Jobless Claims came lower at 290K below the market expectations of 300K.

As for now, traders keep their focus on the UK Retail Sales, and US Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data to gauge market sentiment.

GBP/USD additional levels

 

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Axie Infinity must close above $150 to continue its uptrend
Axie Infinity must close above $150 to continue its uptrend

Axie Infinity must close above $150 to continue its uptrend

177993   October 22, 2021 11:49   FXStreet   Market News  

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

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China’s State Planner says its studying measures to prevent coal firms from seeking excessive profits
China’s State Planner says its studying measures to prevent coal firms from seeking excessive profits

China’s State Planner says its studying measures to prevent coal firms from seeking excessive profits

177992   October 22, 2021 11:45   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

The National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China (NDRC)

Continuing efforts to lower coal prices.

Says it’ll be sending teams to major coal production provinces to investigate the cost of coal production and circulation. Will punish strictly practices of gaining exorbitant profits. 

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IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 22 October 2021
IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 22 October 2021

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 22 October 2021

177990   October 22, 2021 11:33   ICMarkets   Market News  

What happened in the US session?

The plan to increase corporate taxes is unlikely to be included in the US reconciliation bill. The deal is expected to be sealed today.

As expected, the major currencies inherited the bias from the earlier session, with commodity currencies witnessing profit-taking, safe havens trading mixed while risk currencies saw range bound trading.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Profit-taking activities are likely to continue for the antipodeans against the greenback at key technical resistances going into the weekend.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Fed Chair Powell Speaks, 1500 GMT

Treasury Currency Report, Tentative

What can we expect from DXY today?

Fed’s Bostic expects elevated inflation to last into 2022 and the central bank would be in a position to raise rates in the second half of next year, while counterpart Waller wants to see a reduction in the balance sheet.

Central Bank Notes:

  • Tapering likely to start in November, December; end in mid-2022
  • Pace of reduction is $10b in treasuries and $5b in mortgage-backed securities
  • Sees one hike in 2022, three hikes in 2023
  • Next meeting on 3 November

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Gold today?

The upcoming speech from Fed Chair Powell is likely to focus on inflation being less transitory than expected and a likely solution to combat price increases through raising rates.

Since the textbook opportunity cost of holding gold depends on real interest rate, which is the difference between nominal interest and the inflation rate, the precious metal is likely to hold its ground as the US central bank is not likely to raise rates above the inflation rate in the near term.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The latest speech from RBA Governor Lowe did not see a significant deviation from his previous comments and the directives from the central bank. The spill over rally on the Aussie, from the Kiwi, is likely to abate as traders close out for profits near a prior technical resistance with the weekend approaching.

Central Bank Notes:

  • Asset purchase programme intact until February 2022
  • Unlikely to raise current record low rate of 0.1% until 2024
  • Next meeting on 2 November

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

With no upcoming currency-specific data releases, profit-taking from the inflation-induced rally on the Kiwi is likely to continue at a prior technical resistance zone as the weekend approaches.

Central Bank Notes:

  • Official Cash Rate hiked by 25bps on 6 October, stands at 0.5%
  • Will continue to reduce monetary policy stimulus
  • Future moves contingent on inflation and employment.
  • Next meeting on 24 November

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Should Fed Chair Powell reiterate the gap in the continuity between the tapering and a rate hike, the current profit-taking activities on USD/JPY is likely to continue into the weekend.

A removal of the emergency COVID loan scheme is reportedly being discussed at the Bank of Japan as infection rates in the country eases.

Central Bank Notes:

  • Lowered assessment on exports and output amid supply bottlenecks in Asia
  • Willing to ease monetary policy further without hesitation, if required
  • Next meeting on 28 October

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

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