The US Dollar (USD) has started to gather strength against its major rivals mid-week amid a negative shift witnessed in risk perception following Tuesday’s uninspiring performance. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the USD’s valuation against a basket of six major currencies, turned north early Wednesday and reached its highest level since mid-March above 104.50 before retreating modestly.
The USD’s performance is likely to continue to be impacted by risk perception in the second half of the day with investors keeping a close eye on headlines surrounding the debt-limit bill.
On Tuesday, the House Rules Committee advanced the debt-ceiling bill to the House by an uncomfortably close vote of 7 to 6, causing investors to adopt a cautious stance. Several Republican lawmakers voiced their oppositions against the bill, which will be debated in the House floor and voted on Wednesday before moving to a final Senate vote.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) managed to close above the key technical level of 104.00 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the November-February downtrend) on Tuesday, reflecting buyers’ willingness to defend that support. In case the DXY starts using 104.50 (static level) as support, it could target 105.00 (psychological level, static level) and 105.60 (200-day SMA, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) next.
On the downside, 104.00 stays intact as key support. A daily close below that level could attract USD sellers and open the door for an extended slide toward 103.00, where the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is located.
It’s also worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart stays near 70, suggesting that the DXY could correct lower in the short term before the next leg higher.
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%.
If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank.
If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure.
Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.