investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Trump said, again, war will be over soon

• Samsung Electronics union to strike Thursday after South Korea mediation talks collapse
• Citi bull case Brent hitting $150 near term as oil markets under-price disruption risk
• Oil slips a little on Trump peace talk but supply fears keep prices elevated
• EU strikes provisional deal to cut US tariffs ahead of Trump’s July 4 deadline
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.8397 (vs. estimate at 6.8072)
• The People’s Bank of China has left its Loan Prime Rates (LPR)s unchanged for the 12 month
• Preview: Australia April jobs data eyed as AUD rally and RBA rate path hang in balance
• China to scrap SME loan targets in shift toward market-driven credit, report says
• More from Fed’s Paulson, says risks are super-elevated and hike on table if growth surges
• Japan manufacturers’ mood edges up in May but outlook darkens, Tankan shows
• Paulson says current Fed policy appropriate but markets right to price in hikes
• ECB’s Nagel says bank may have to act in June as Iran energy shock spreads
• BOJ may slow or pause bond taper at June meeting, analysts say
• War ICYMI – Trump briefed on Iran strike options after pausing attack, officials say
• US Senate advances war powers vote to curb Iran strikes without Congress (doesn’t matter)
• ECB’s Kocher warns June rate hike unavoidable if Hormuz stays shut
• Oil: Private inventory survey shows a headline crude oil draw much greater than expected

Summary:

• US crude inventories fell for a fifth straight week, with API data showing a 9.1 million barrel draw for the week ended May 15, alongside a 5.8 million barrel gasoline draw and a 1 million barrel distillate decline; an SPR drawdown of nearly 10 million barrels will dominate Wednesday’s EIA report
• Two Chinese supertankers carrying 4 million barrels of Middle East crude exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday after waiting in the Gulf for more than two months, the first notable passage through the chokepoint in some time
• ECB Governing Council member Kocher said on Austrian prime-time television that a June rate hike is unavoidable if the Hormuz Strait remains closed, delivering a notably more unconditional signal than his hedged comments to specialist media a week earlier
• Philadelphia Fed President Paulson said in prepared remarks that current policy is appropriate but called it healthy that markets are pricing in an extended hold or further hikes; in follow-up comments she described risks to both inflation and the outlook as super-elevated and put a rate hike explicitly on the table
• China held its one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged for a twelfth consecutive month at 3.00% and 3.50% respectively, in line with market expectations
• Samsung Electronics faces a Thursday strike by over 47,000 South Korean workers after mediation talks collapsed, with the union blaming delays in management decision-making; Samsung shares fell on the news
• Asia-Pacific equities declined on a weak US handover, with the Nikkei off 1% and Hong Kong and mainland China each down around 0.5%, weighed by higher yields, the global bond rout and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty

Wednesday’s session was dominated by the familiar tug of war between diplomatic optimism and supply reality, with crude markets ultimately siding with the latter as the weight of inventory data and central bank hawkishness kept the broader tone cautious despite Trump’s latest assertion that the Iran war will end very quickly.

On the supply side, the numbers continued to tell their own story. API data showed US crude stocks fell by 9.1 million barrels in the week ended May 15, a fifth consecutive weekly draw, with gasoline inventories down 5.8 million barrels and distillates off by around 1 million barrels. The gasoline figure in particular will be watched closely ahead of the EIA report due at 10.30am Eastern on Wednesday morning, with a draw of that size carrying the potential to rattle RBOB sellers who had been leaning the other way. The distillate number edges the market closer to the psychologically significant 100-million barrel mark, and an SPR drawdown of nearly 10 million barrels of crude will dominate the headline EIA print. The drain of US petroleum inventories is not slowing.

Against that backdrop, some tentative relief emerged on the physical supply side. Two Chinese supertankers carrying a combined 4 million barrels of Middle East crude exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday after waiting in the Gulf for more than two months, the first notable movement through the chokepoint in some time. It is a data point rather than a trend, but markets will be watching for any sign that passage is becoming possible again.

On the central bank front, the session produced some of the most pointed hawkish signals of the week. ECB Governing Council member Kocher, speaking on Austrian prime-time television, delivered what amounted to an unconditional warning: if the Hormuz Strait remains closed, there is no way around a rate hike at the June 11 meeting. The setting and the directness of the language marked a clear escalation from his more carefully hedged comments to specialist financial media just a week earlier. Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed President Paulson moved in a similar direction, first saying in prepared remarks that current policy is appropriate and that it is healthy for markets to price in an extended hold or further hikes, then going further in follow-up comments to describe risks to both inflation and the outlook as super-elevated, and putting a hike explicitly on the table if growth moves above potential.

China, for its part, held its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a twelfth consecutive month, with both the one-year and five-year LPRs left at 3.00% and 3.50% respectively, and the seven-day reverse repo rate, which now anchors LPR pricing, also unmoved this year.

In equities, Samsung Electronics weighed on regional sentiment after its South Korean union confirmed a strike for Thursday, with over 47,000 workers set to walk out following the collapse of mediation talks. The union said management’s failure to respond to the mediator’s proposal in time ended the process, and while it left the door open to a deal even during the action, the breakdown sent Samsung shares lower. Asia-Pacific markets took their cue from a weak US handover, with the Nikkei off 1% and Hong Kong and mainland China each down around 0.5%, as a higher yield environment, the ongoing global bond rout and the volatile geopolitical backdrop continued to weigh on sentiment.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.