Market News

Bitcoin forecasts for 2028: One speculative fractal scenario maps a $148,000 peak

Bitcoin could approach $145,000-$150,000 around summer 2027 under one long-range chart scenario. The projection combines a repeated historical price pattern with an extended resistance line drawn across three major Bitcoin tops. However, this is a low-confidence scenario, not a trade plan or a claim that Bitcoin must follow the projected path.

Key takeaways from this Bitcoin forecast

• Projected peak: Approximately $148,000, potentially during summer 2027.
• Bitcoin price when the chart was created: Around $73,400 on August 21, 2026.
• Distance to the projected peak: Bitcoin was trading at roughly half the forecasted high, meaning the scenario implies approximately…

The plan as described would target the two main routes shippers have used to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia's Yanbu pipeline and the UAE's Fujairah terminal, which together handle roughly 5.5 million barrels a day. Combined with a push to fully shut the roughly 5 million barrels a day still moving through the strait via the US backed shadow fleet, a successful campaign would remove a significant share of the alternative capacity that has kept some Gulf oil flowing despite the broader blockade. Given Brent is already trading near 93 dollars a barrel on existing tensions, any credible move against Yanbu or Fujairah would likely be read by traders as a materially larger supply shock than the disruptions seen so far, given the scale…

This leans mildly inflationary at the margin, though it's a narrower, more targeted pressure than the oil and Treasury stories.

The canal handles a meaningful share of global container and LNG traffic between the US East Coast and Asia, so tighter daily slots typically show up as higher transit premiums, longer queues and route diversions (via Suez or around the Cape), all of which raise shipping costs. That's a similar transmission mechanism to the 2023-2024 drought, which pushed up freight rates and spot charges without triggering a broad based inflation shock. The scale here (35 to 32 transits) is a smaller cut than during the worst of the 2023 drought, and the delayed draft restrictions actually ease pressure in the near term, so the…

Trump's comments add another data point to the market's ongoing assessment of how much longer the Iran conflict, and the associated oil price premium, is likely to run. His characterization of Iran's economy as being in severe distress, with triple digit inflation and a collapsing currency, feeds a narrative that Tehran's capacity to sustain the standoff is eroding, which could support expectations of eventual de-escalation and a corresponding pullback in the geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in Brent and WTI. At the same time, his reaffirmation that Iran will not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon signals no near term softening in the underlying US position, meaning traders are unlikely to price out the conflict risk…

Japan July 2026 CPI

2.0% y/y, will be enough to keep BoJ September rate hike expectations on the boil

• vs. expected 1.9%, prior 1.6%
• 0.4% m/m (prior 0.3%

Core CPI 1.8% y/y

• expected 1.8%, prior 1.6%

CPI Ex-Food and Energy 1.8% y/y

• expected 1.9%, prior 1.7%

I'll have more to come on this separately, detail and implications etc. 

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Background to this:

• Preview: Japan core CPI seen hitting six month high, lifting bets on BoJ September hike

New Zealand trade data, July 2026

• Trade balance NZ$-1.95 billion (prior 23mn)
• Imports NZ$+9.34 billion (prior 8.07bn)
• Exports NZ$+7.39 billion (prior 8.09bn)
• New Zealand July annual trade balance NZ$-5.24 billion (prior -3.75bn)

The upside surprise, a rise to -14 against a Reuters poll consensus for a decline to -18, adds to a run of stronger than expected UK data and could feed into expectations for firmer household spending in the months ahead. The jump in the major purchases sub-index to its highest since December 2021 is the most consequential detail for retailers and durable goods sectors, since that measure tends to lead actual big ticket spending more directly than the headline gauge. The improvement is corroborated by a cluster of other confidence surveys, including YouGov/Cebr, BRC-Opinium, Barclays and LSEG/Ipsos, reducing the chance this is noise in a single dataset. Still, GfK's own note that inflation is back on the rise, alongside ongoing Middle…

The composite reading's slip to 52.5 from 53.2 still points to a third straight month of private sector expansion, keeping the growth narrative intact even as the pace moderates. The more telling signal for policymakers is the reacceleration in input price inflation, the first pickup after three months of easing, concentrated more heavily in manufacturing where fuel, freight and raw material costs rose. That firms responded by slowing their own charge inflation rather than passing costs through in full suggests margin compression is building, a dynamic that could show up in corporate earnings before it shows up in headline inflation data. The six month high in business confidence and the pickup in new export orders offer some offsetting…

The pace of the rally is prompting banks to revisit both their timelines and their ceilings, with the metal already through a target that had been pencilled in for later in the year. Softer expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening are seen reviving exchange traded fund demand after a period of outflows, while central banks continue to use price dips as buying opportunities to build reserves. Analysts are also pointing to an unusual decoupling between gold and long-term real yields, suggesting the metal is responding more to concerns about fiscal sustainability than to the level of yields themselves. Positioning risk is building on the other side of the ledger, with short interest on COMEX already thin, leaving less scope for…

The on month decline snaps an 11 month run of gains and points to some near term easing in the pipeline pressures that feed into consumer prices, though the year on year rate remains elevated at 7.7 percent. The mix within the data is notable, with industrial goods and utility costs providing the disinflationary pull while agricultural, livestock and fisheries prices moved in the opposite direction on weather related supply disruption. That split suggests the relief is concentrated in energy and administered prices rather than reflecting a broad based cooling in cost pressures. The steeper 1.8 percent monthly drop in the domestic supply price index, which folds in import prices, points to imported cost relief as the primary driver, a…

The remarks land as traders sharply pare bets on a September rate increase, with pricing falling to around 30 percent from more than 70 percent at the end of July. Daly's comments suggest a voting bloc within the Fed sees little urgency to act preemptively despite the bond market turmoil, which could reinforce the recent repricing lower in near term hike odds. Musalem's undecided stance, paired with his stated preference for a July hike, keeps a hawkish tail risk alive and may limit how far yields retrace even if Daly's view proves more representative of the committee. Both officials pushing back on credibility concerns, while attributing the selloff instead to fiscal financing needs and AI related capital demand, could ease the most…

It's a busy data agenda ahead, with the eyes mainly on the CPI data from Japan. 

I'll have a preview to come on this separately (ADDED, here it is), inclduing implications for the Bank of Japan's next policy meeting.