Market News

• Poor weather conditions have hampered economic recovery
• Limited usable transport routes on major rivers likely to impair industrial output, export growth
• The low water levels are noticeably impacting overall economic activity in the third quarter
• ECB rate hikes are also dampening sentiment on corporate investment
• Inflation could rise even higher temporarily but outlook still largely dependent on Middle East conflict
• No evidence yet of second-round efects on inflation through wages at least

For some context, months of dry weather have left the Rhine and a number of rivers in Germany with shallow waters - to the point that vessels have been unable to sail fully loaded. In turn, that has increased shipping costs and also result in slower transport…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 20 August 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Australia’s unexpectedly weak July employment report, with employment falling 15.8K instead of rising 11.7K and unemployment increasing to 4.5%. This has put immediate pressure on the Australian dollar, particularly AUD/USD and AUD/JPY, while reinforcing expectations that the RBA may be more cautious on further tightening. At the same time, Asian markets are trading against a powerful global backdrop of falling U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar following the Treasury’s expanded bond-buyback programme, which is supporting gold and weighing on the USD/JPY. Oil remains supported by geopolitical risks involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, leaving…

Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.11%, Shanghai Composite up 0.18% Hang Seng up 0.75% ASX up 0.24%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,550.64 (0.13%) Silver at $67.243 (2.21%), Brent Oil at 91.81 (0.15%), WTI Oil at 84.35 (-0.04%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.633, UK 10-year yield at 5.0484, Germany 10-year yield at 3.2625

News & Data:

• (USD)    Crude Oil Inventories   4.4M  to 0.2M  expected

Markets Update:

U.S. stock futures were little changed Wednesday night after Wall Street posted a winning session, supported by a pullback in Treasury yields. S&P 500 futures rose about 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.3%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 19 points, or 0.04%.

Asian markets traded…

The dollar continues to keep in a vulnerable spot after the US Treasury announcement yesterday, with traders still digesting and weighing up the impact of it all. While we're not seeing the greenback fall off that much more so far this session, EUR/USD is one that is looking to keep the run going at least.

The currency pair is up a little over 0.1% to 1.1690 levels now, its highest in over three months. That comes despite some mixed moves across other dollar pairs, with the greenback holding slight gains against the likes of the yen and franc.

The break yesterday had a lot of technical backing to it, thus likely exacerbating the ongoing momentum we're seeing.

The pair had been a bit cagey in and around the 100-day moving average (red line)…

US Stocks Edge Higher After Treasury Bond Update – S&P up 0.2%

US equity markets edged higher in trading yesterday, with the Dow Jones gaining 0.22% to close at 53,463, while the S&P 500 added 0.21% to finish at 7,707. The technology-heavy Nasdaq also moved into positive territory, rising 0.16% to 26,331, as traders responded to the US Treasury’s decision to double the size of its buyback operations in the longer-dated bond market.

The announcement helped drive Treasury yields lower, particularly further along the curve, with the benchmark 10-year yield falling 5.9 basis points to 4.645%. The 2-year yield was comparatively stable, easing 0.9 basis points to 4.162%. The move from the Treasury appeared to outweigh the more hawkish…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 20 August 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Falling Treasury yields and broad USD weakness following the Treasury buyback announcement, which created strong bullish momentum in gold and silver and helped equities. The FOMC minutes were hawkish, but had less impact than the Treasury announcement, while the 4.4M-barrel EIA crude build was bearish for oil, although Middle East supply risks continued to support prices.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

The key Asian-session event is Australia’s employment report. With employment forecast to slow sharply from 76.3K to 11.7K while unemployment is expected to remain at 4.4%, the result could generate significant volatility in the AUD pairs,…

Key takeaways for investors and traders today

• Treasury buybacks: Lower bond yields are supporting technology and other growth assets.

• Semiconductor test: SK Hynix and Samsung are rebounding sharply, but U.S. chip stocks still need to confirm the recovery.

• Moderna re-rating: MRNA’s 177% surge reflects major new clinical information, not merely a sector rebound.

• Crypto participation: Bitcoin is nearing $70,000, while Ethereum’s breakout suggests the rally may be broadening.

• Main risk: The latest FOMC minutes show that higher interest rates remain possible if inflation does not continue falling.

At approximately 03:15 ET, regular U.S. premarket trading had not yet begun. Nasdaq futures were around 0.4% higher, while S&P 500 futures were up…

From overnight: Trump vows crushing new economic operation against Iran, warns allies

The threat by Trump pretty much underscores that we are still nowhere near any deal between the two sides. And after trying to brute force his way to getting Iran to concede, Trump is now having to find a different way of achieving that goal.

But considering how US sanctions have not worked in the past, I'm not sure how much more they can push the issue from an economic perspective. So, we'll see.

In any case, Iran remains unfazed with foreign minister Araghchi saying that:

"The so-called “Economic D-Day” is a diversion from America's own crisis: unprecedented debt & surging interest costs. Doubling down on failed policies will only bring further…

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1650 level. The expiries don't tie to any technical significance, so I wouldn't attach too much impact on them for the day. That being said, we could still see the expiries limit any downside price extensions in the session ahead. That as traders are still digesting and figuring things out on the US Treasury decision to double buybacks at the long-end of the curve yesterday.

The announcement there is still the main driver of trading sentiment at the moment, with that having impacted the dollar mood heavily. The greenback fell hard on the headlines, as Treasury yields also fell off significantly at the same time.

Still, it is…

• July producer prices +1.1% vs +0.7% m/m expected
• Prior -0.3%
• July producer prices +3.0% vs +2.7% y/y expected
• Prior +1.8%

German producer prices continue to move up again in July but owes much to another jump in energy prices. Of note, energy prices rose by 3.4% in July compared to the month before with prices for petroleum products in particular seen 6.6% higher than in June. That contributed much to the headline monthly estimate, as producer prices only rose by 0.1% if you strip out energy prices from the equation.

Looking at other key categories, prices for intermediate goods were seen 0.1% higher in July compared to June. Prices for capital goods also showed a slight increase on the month (+0.2%) and the same for consumer goods (+0.3%).

So,…