Market News

• Bailey: US-Iran war has led to higher energy prices, they could be higher still
• Bailey: Ukranian attacks on Russian refineries also boosting energy prices
• Taylor: I judge holding bank rate at moderately restrictive level provides insurance against external risks
• Taylor: Remain alert to risk of persistent energy-price rises and how they could alter wage and price setting
• Taylor: Policy would have to respond forcefully but evidence scant
• Greene: The length of time oil prices has been high worrise me about second round effects
• Ramsden: Domestic inflation position is relatively benign
• Ramsden: Global inflationary picture is much more upside inflation risk
• Ramsden: UK wages have come in below what we expected before conflict

There is a consensus under…

Bitcoin’s technical picture is starting to shift back to the downside after buyers failed to extend the recent rally through an important area of resistance on the daily chart.

Daily chart: The recovery runs into resistance

Starting with the broader daily chart, as a review Bitcoin’s rebound higher accelerated after the price moved back above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages back on August 19. That breakout gave buyers the technical go-ahead to push higher.

However, the rally stalled within a key swing area between $80,560 and $82,833 toward the end of August and into September too. That zone has repeatedly attracted sellers since that time. The swing area was defined by swing lows and highs going back to November 2025.  

Just above…

The trade escalation between the US and Canada ratcheted up over the weekend. Trump made a series of inflamatory posts, including this hockey-related one with Trump saying "Get up Governor". That culminated in Trump announcing a ban on Bombardier planes. The maker of Challenger and Global business jets was in Trump's crosshairs last year as well after the slow certification of US jets in Canada.

It was a bizarre move given that Bombardier has more than 2,800 US suppliers. According to Bloomberg, tts Global 7500 jet has wings made in Texas, avionics made in Iowa and motors made in Indiana.

In any case, Canada's counter tariffs on US goods went into effect today, with rates of 15-50% targeting hundreds of products.

Another strange move from…

The USD is trading mixed and little changed against most of the major currencies as North American traders return following the Labor Day holiday.

The forex market was open yesterday, but the U.S. and Canadian stock and bond markets were closed. As a result, liquidity and trading activity were lighter than normal. That changes today as U.S. and Canadian traders return to their desks.

The largest move in the forex market is in the NZDUSD, which is down around 0.60%. The other major currency pairs are all within 0.30% of yesterday’s closing levels.

The USDJPY is trading modestly lower after yesterday’s sharp decline. That move was triggered by a technical break below last week’s lows and the early August low near 155.20–155.29. Once that…

The US entered Labor Day with average gasoline prices at $4.14 a gallon, almost $1 higher than a year ago, while diesel hit a record $5.85 as the Middle East crisis drags on.

Despite the US president claiming full control over the Strait of Hormuz in early August, only about 10 commercial vessels a day have passed through the strait over the past 10 days, the lowest level since May and down from more than 15 just days earlier as attacks in the area picked up.

Moreover, Yemen’s Houthis attacked energy facilities and cities in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, prompting the Saudi Energy Ministry to say that operations at some energy facilities had been suspended.

And then there’s the Russia-Ukraine war, with Ukraine continuing to target Russian…

Headlines:

• Bitcoin swings wildly as volatility in Fed expectations increases ahead of US CPI and FOMC decision
• Today's trade idea for oil traders
• Bitcoin has already won its battle, whereas Ethereum is only starting its own
• How oil prices influence inflation, inflation expectations and monetary policy
• The bond market continues to tighten the screws, and everything else is feeling it
• Oil prices extend gains as Yemen's Houthis threaten broader Saudi operation after attacks hit energy sites
• A-Book vs B-Book: How Brokers Actually Manage Your Trades
• USD/JPY selloff extends further as Yen hits seven-month high; US CPI and BoJ in focus next
• European stock market open: A sluggish start as oil and rate concerns continue to stick
• French trade deficit grows…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Bitcoin had a volatile end to last week. On Thursday, the price spiked to the upside after some dovish Fed’s Waller comments. Since he deviated from his usual hawkish stance, it triggered a dovish repricing in interest rate expectations which lowered the probabilities for a September rate hike.

On Friday, bitcoin erased most of its Waller-driven gains as the US NFP report showed job growth in August almost tripling the consensus estimate of 56K. This triggered a hawkish repricing which saw the probabilities for a rate hike in September returning to pre-Waller levels.

This week, all eyes will be on the US CPI data. Unless, we get some…

Quick answer

The usual explanation is simple. An A-book broker hedges a client trade with a liquidity provider, while a B-book broker keeps the exposure and may benefit if the client loses.

That explanation is useful as a starting point, but it is not how most established CFD brokers manage risk in practice. A CFD broker remains the client's contractual counterparty. Separately, the broker may offset opposing client positions, hedge some or all of its net exposure externally, or retain a limited amount of risk within defined controls.

In practice, many established CFD brokers use some form of hybrid or portfolio-level risk management. They manage the combined exposure…

Crude Oil Trade Idea: Wait for 94.14 to Break Before Considering a Short

Instrument: CL October 2026 crude oil futuresCurrent area at analysis: approximately 94.17-94.20Directional bias: Neutral for now, with a conditional bearish setup developing

Crude oil has staged a powerful rally from the low-92s into the 94.60-94.70 area, but the latest price action is beginning to show signs that buyers may be losing some control near the highs.

That does not yet justify chasing a short.

The better trade is to wait for the market to confirm that the recent rejection is turning into a genuine pullback rather than simply a pause within the broader uptrend.

The trade idea

Conditional short entry: 94.20-94.30, only after price first breaks below…

When it comes to cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum are two of the major household names.

The former has spent more than a decade in answering one fundamental question: Can cryptocurrencies really become an institutional asset class?

And the answer to that seems to be increasingly a yes.

But for Ethereum, the challenge is very much a different one.

The cryptocurrency has enjoyed a good summer, outpacing Bitcoin in terms of gains. In fact, the ETH/BTC ratio has climbed back above 0.031 - the first time in four months. Adding to that, money is beginning to also follow the price.

US spot Ether ETFs attracted around $1.85 billion in August, their strongest month in about a year. That adds to yet another flashpoint where investors are not quite…

Oil prices are among the most important variables for inflation. A sustained rise in crude prices can push headline inflation higher directly, but its impact can extend beyond energy prices by influencing inflation expectations. One useful market-based measure of those expectations is the breakeven inflation rate.

What are breakeven inflation rates?

A breakeven inflation rate is the difference between the yield on a conventional Treasury bond and the yield on an inflation-protected Treasury of the same maturity.

For example, taking the 10-year breakeven, which is generally used as benchmark: 

10-year breakeven = 10-year Treasury yield − 10-year TIPS yield

The result represents the average annual inflation rate that would make an investor…