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A stronger-than-forecast export print would extend China's reliance on external demand to offset a sluggish domestic economy, a dynamic that has held even as it pushes trade tensions with major partners further into focus. Import strength, if it also beats forecast, would be read more constructively as a signal of firmer domestic demand rather than just re-exported components, and tends to carry more weight for commodity-linked currencies including the Australian dollar. A miss on either side would reinforce concerns that August's still-subdued manufacturing PMI reading is the more accurate signal of underlying momentum than the trade headline.

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The trade data will show whether exports can keep carrying an economy where domestic demand…

An upward capex revision would firm up already-elevated odds of a BOJ hike this month, reinforcing the yield differential story that has kept the yen from sliding further despite its recent softness. JGB yields, already at multi-decade highs, would likely extend gains on a stronger print, squeezing valuations across rate-sensitive pockets of the Nikkei even as exporters benefit from a firmer growth narrative.

A miss on the revision would cut the other way: hike conviction would soften, yen weakness would likely resume, and equities could see a short-term relief bounce on reduced tightening risk.

Either outcome keeps USD/JPY and Nikkei futures reactive through the release window.

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Today's GDP revision is less about the headline number…

GDP data from Japan and the trade data from China due today. I'll have more to come on both of these separately, previews, posted soon. 

The preliminary GDP from Japan was three weeks ago, quite a solid miss on this:

• Japan Q2 GDP growth undershoots forecasts, complicating BOJ's hike timeline

• Crude oil technicals: Buyers test key resistance near $93.50
• European major indices close mixed on the day
• Copper reaches a new record high on the LME
• Kickstart the North American FX session. The USDJPY is the big mover. The EUR and GBP are down modestly
• investingLive European session wrap: Oil climbs, yen surges amid US holiday

The US dollar moved mostly lower in holiday-thinned trading, led by a sharp decline against the Japanese yen. US markets were closed for the Labor Day holiday, but that did not stop USDJPY from extending its recent move to the downside.

The pair fell 1.22% to 154.33 after reaching a low of 154.07—the lowest level in about six months. The yen has now strengthened by roughly 3.4% over the last five trading days.

The…

Crude oil futures are trading higher, with the current price up $1.27, or 1.39%, at $92.75. The high price reached $93.29, while the low was at $90.87.

Technically, the price moved lower earlier today, but the decline stalled near the rising 100-hour moving average, currently at $91.04. Holding that moving average gave buyers the go-ahead to push the price back to the upside.

The rally extended above the 50% midpoint of the move down from the April 2026 high to the July low. That retracement level comes in at $92.47. However, buyers have so far been unable to extend above the swing highs going back to June 10 near $93.50.

That makes the area between $92.47 and $93.50 the key technical barometer for buyers and sellers going forward.

A…

European shares are ending the day mixed in relatively quiet trading, with the U.S. markets closed for the Labor Day holiday.

Higher oil prices provided support for energy shares, but there is another side to that story. Rising energy costs can keep inflation elevated and increase the pressure on central banks to raise interest rates. That concern helped push European yields higher and limited the enthusiasm in the broader equity markets.

The major indices are closing:

• Germany’s DAX: -0.15% at 26,006.53

• France’s CAC 40: +0.33% at 8,306.15

• U.K.’s FTSE 100: -0.08% at 10,822.13

• Spain’s Ibex: -0.14% at 20,021.80

• Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.25% at 52,230

The pan-European Stoxx 600 finished near unchanged at 649.90.

Energy shares were among the better…

The AUDUSD is extending higher, helped by rising commodity prices and renewed strength in copper, which reached another record high today.

Australia is a major commodity exporter, particularly of iron ore, coal and liquefied natural gas. It is also one of the world’s leading copper producers. As a result, the Australian dollar is often viewed as a “commodity currency.”

When commodity prices rise, Australia’s export revenues and terms of trade can improve. That does not guarantee the Australian dollar will strengthen, but it can provide a fundamental tailwind. Today, that tailwind is helping the AUDUSD extend to its highest level since the middle of May.

Buyers test the next technical ceiling

The AUDUSD has reached 0.7224, taking the pair into…

Copper’s surge is being driven by a powerful combination of increasing structural demand, constrained supply and speculative market flows.

AI demand extends beyond the data center

The growth of artificial intelligence and the rapid construction of data centers are important parts of the demand story. However, the copper requirements extend well beyond the wiring used inside the data centers themselves.

These facilities consume enormous amounts of electricity, which requires additional power generation, transmission lines, substations, transformers and broader upgrades to the electrical grid.

That distinction is important. When traders talk about AI-related copper demand, they are not simply talking about copper going into computer equipment.…

Sometimes, traders prepare for an economic release, the data comes out largely as expected—or even better than expected—and the subsequent price action still disappoints.

That is exactly what happened in the USDCAD following Friday’s US and Canadian employment reports.

The two reports showed sharply divergent employment pictures:

• US nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, well above the 56,000 estimate. Prior months were also revised higher.

• Canadian employment fell by 41,700, compared with expectations for a gain of 15,100.

The initial reaction made perfect sense. Stronger US data and weaker Canadian data sent the US dollar higher and the Canadian dollar lower. As a result, the USDCAD moved sharply to the upside.

However, that rally did not…

Gold futures trade idea: A patient long at $4,431.5, with three profit targets

investingLive’s gold setup waits for a pullback rather than chasing a recovery, with a defined stop and a plan to reduce exposure as profit targets are reached.

Analysis date: September 7, 2026. Reference instrument: December 2026 COMEX gold futures. This is a conditional trade plan based on the analysis snapshot, not a report of an executed trade.

Today’s gold futures trade idea is straightforward: wait for a fresh pullback to 4,431.5, place the initial stop at 4,407.5, and take profits in stages if a recovery develops.

The distinction is important. This is a countertrend long, meaning an attempt to capture a rebound against recent weakness. Our assessment of the…

Happy Labor Day to those traders in North America.

Although the US stock and bond markets are closed (and in Canada too), the forex market is up and alive.  The overall bias is to the downside with the USD is moving lower led by an oversized decline vs the JPY of -1.15% leading the declines. Some catalysts for the move: 

• BOJ rate-hike expectations: Markets increasingly expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates by 25 basis points next week, with another potential increase later this year.
• Narrowing yield spreads: Japanese yields are rising relative to U.S. yields. A narrower U.S.–Japan interest-rate advantage makes holding dollars against the yen less attractive.
• Intervention concerns: Japan’s recent record yen-buying intervention remains…

Headlines:

• Reminder: US markets are closed for Labor Day - what traders need to know
• USD/JPY tumbles lower, breaks below 155 for the first time since February
• Oil prices climb as US-Iran missile strikes keep Hormuz risks elevated
• Saudi Aramco facility attacked again; extent of the damage still being assessed
• Gold erases Waller-driven gains as rate hike odds rise after hot NFP; all eyes on US CPI next
• China’s gold buying spree rolls on as reserves climb again in August
• Germany factory output slumps in July as autos hit the brakes
• Eurozone investor confidence jumps to four-year high
• Eurozone Q2 GDP gets a trade boost as growth accelerates to 0.6%

Markets:

• WTI crude oil up 0.9% to $92.30
• USD/JPY down 1% to 154.65, lowest since February
• Gold down 0.8% to…