Market News

●         Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.91%, Shanghai Composite down 0.24% Hang Seng down 1.11% ASX up 0.02%

●        Commodities : Gold at $4,452.26 (-0.54%) Silver at $66.463 (-0.43%), Brent Oil at 97.03 (0.77%), WTI Oil at 92.24 (0.82%)

●        Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.795, UK 10-year yield at 5.1345, Germany 10-year yield at 3.3376

●        (USD)     Average Hourly Earnings m/m    0.3% to 0.3%  expected

 Asia-Pacific markets opened broadly higher on Monday as investors remained focused on escalating tensions in the Middle East, with the United States and Iran continuing to exchange strikes.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained nearly 1%, while the Topix rose 0.55%.…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 07 September 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Stronger-than-expected U.S. economy colliding with persistent inflation and geopolitical energy risks. The 162K payroll gain and 55.4 ISM Services reading strengthened the case for the Fed to keep policy restrictive and potentially hike rates in September, pushing Treasury yields and the dollar higher while putting pressure on gold and U.S. equities. At the same time, escalating U.S.-Iran tensions kept crude oil strongly bullish, with Brent near the mid-$90s and supply concerns around the Strait of Hormuz adding inflationary risk.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

The combination of persistent Middle East supply risks, OPEC+’s decision to leave…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 07 September 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Asian stocks are benefiting from the strong U.S. jobs report, while the yen is strengthening on rising BOJ hike expectations. At the same time, escalating U.S.–Iran tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are keeping Brent and WTI firmly supported near multi-month highs, creating a significant inflation risk. China’s large financial-sector capital injection is providing an additional positive catalyst for Chinese equities.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

The U.S. session will be unusually quiet because of Labor Day, but traders should still monitor the dollar and Treasury-yield reaction to last week’s strong jobs report. The biggest market…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US dollar spiked to the upside on Friday after the US NFP report showed job growth in August almost tripling the consensus estimate of 56K. The dollar gains didn’t last long, though, as most of the NFP-driven moves got faded thereafter.

This happened because the market focus was not on the NFP report, but on the CPI. The market pays attention to the data that the central bank is focused on, and the Federal Reserve is currently focused on inflation.

In fact, just a day before the NFP report, Fed’s Waller mentioned that he would support keeping interest rates unchanged at the upcoming FOMC meeting, but a hot CPI would…

Here's a look at how European indices are faring at the open as we get into the new day/week:

• Eurostoxx -0.1%
• Germany DAX -0.2%
• France CAC 40 -0.1%
• UK FTSE -0.1%
• Spain IBEX -0.1%
• Italy FTSE MIB +0.2%

The more cautious tone comes despite a stronger tech-led session in Asia, as investors have to contend with another push up in oil prices, relatively hawkish central bank expectations, and still lingering US-Iran tensions.

Of note, WTI crude is trading up 0.5% to $91.95 with Brent crude up 0.8% to $97.05 currently. That comes as US and Iran exchange more strikes near the Strait of Hormuz with the latter also preparing for restrictions along the waterway.

The moves to start the day are relatively light, and limited by mixed signals from US futures. S&P…

US Stocks Slip as Strong Jobs Data Revives Fed Hike Expectations

US equities finished lower in trading on Friday as stronger-than-expected employment data pushed expectations for a further Federal Reserve rate hike higher. Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 162k jobs in August, significantly above economists’ expectations for a 56k increase, with markets now pricing the probability of a 25-basis point rate hike in September at around 60%.

The Dow Jones fell 0.51% to 53,414, while the S&P 500 declined 0.38% to 7,718 and the Nasdaq eased 0.29% to 26,506. The stronger employment data also drove Treasury yields higher, with the US 2-Year yield rising 3.0 basis points to 4.366%, while the 10-Year yield increased 1.4 basis points to 4.782%.

The…

USD/JPY is now down 0.4% to 155.60 levels today, with the currency pair looking heavy again as the new week gets underway.

The sharp drop last week is still fresh on the minds of traders, even if there was a bit of dip-buying on Friday after the US jobs report. The non-farm payrolls data was hot and that led to a bid in the dollar on the initial reaction but that was quickly shot down. USD/JPY saw a whipsaw from a high of 156.75 to a low of 155.35 in about a half-hour before a volatile end to the week.

As we get into the new week, we are seeing more of the same with the pair having initially tested waters above 156.00, with the high earlier today touching 156.27. All that before a sudden slump in the past hour or so, dropping to a low of…

• Germany July industrial production -1.1% vs +0.1% m/m expected
• Prior +0.2%; revised to 0.0%

The breakdownThat's a big miss on estimates as the weak July print was driven heavily by a sharp albeit partly temporary auto-sector slump. That being said, the broader industrial picture was also soft on the month.

Of note, the auto sector posted a decline of 9.2% m/m - partly due to a multi-week production pause.

But looking elsewhere, the production of capital goods also fell by 3.4% and consumer goods by 2.2% on the month. To make matters worse, the only lift on the month came from energy production - which rose by 4.7% mainly from stronger wind and solar generation.

If excluding energy and construction, German industrial production for July…

There is just one standout expiry to watch out for in the day ahead, as highlighted in bold below.

That being for USD/JPY at the 155.75 level. Under normal circumstances if USD/JPY does trade down below 156.00, the large notional amount could contribute to a stickier or more pinning-type of price action and congestion around the strike as expiry approaches. In essence, it may behave somewhat like a magnet zone but it is not inherently bullish nor bearish and should not be treated as a guaranteed target.

The fact that the expiry level does not coincide with any key technical levels also lessens the impact of potential pull of the expiry towards price action for the time being. The next major support level for USD/JPY is only seen closer to…

It'll be a quieter session up ahead in the US today as we will see key market closures in observance of the Labor Day weekend. Both the NYSE and Nasdaq are shut, so there will be no regular trading in US equities today. Besides that, the options market is also closed for the holiday with normal trading only resuming on Tuesday tomorrow.

In addition, the bond market is effectively closed as well. So, that means all dollar-denominated fixed-income securities such as Treasuries, mortgage-back securities, high-yield corporate bonds, municipal bonds and parts of the money market will be shut.

Why does this matter?

To put short, when US cash equities and Treasuries are absent from trading, it means that liquidity across global markets is typically…