Market News

Fed Governor Christopher Waller gave markets a more dovish message this morning, and traders responded by pushing yields and the US dollar lower while lifting stock futures. But with the major currency pairs reaching key technical levels, the next question is: Can traders extend those moves, or will support and resistance slow the momentum?

In the video above, I look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD and explain how those levels help traders judge control, identify targets and define risk.

Speaking to Reuters, Waller said he is finally seeing signs of disinflation and would be inclined to leave rates unchanged in September if August’s inflation data shows continued progress. For newer traders, disinflation means prices are rising more…

The US trade deficit widened significantly in July, with a sharp increase in imports and a decline in exports that could weigh on economic growth in the third quarter. The goods and services deficit rose to $88.6 billion in July from $71.2 billion in June. The increase was driven primarily by a surge in goods imports, particularly computers, computer accessories, and semiconductors. Exports fell by $6.6 billion to $310.7 billion, while imports increased by $10.8 billion to $399.3 billion.

The trade balance measures the difference between what a country exports and what it imports. Exports represent demand for domestically produced goods and services. Imports represent spending on foreign-produced goods and services.

Because Gross Domestic…

Fed's Waller is speaking and although he is keeping the door open for a tightening is also encouraged by signs of disinflation.  Waller says:

• Open to leaving rates unchanged at the September meeting if inflation cools.
• Finally seeing some signs of disinflation in recent data.
• Communicating his reaction function helps the public plan.
• Would consider a September rate hike if August inflation data comes in hot.
• Inclined to support holding rates steady at the September 15–16 meeting if August inflation data shows continued progress.
• It may not take much acceleration in inflation to support tighter policy.
• If August inflation data shows progress has reversed, a “small adjustment” to the policy rate would help ensure progress resumes.
• GDP…

• Prior week 204K
• initial jobless claims 206K versus 205K estimate
• 4 week moving average 207.25K versus 205.75K
• continuing claims 1.779 million versus 1.790 million estimate. Prior week 1.7719

The claims data continues to show steady employment in the US. There is not a lot of hiring. There is not a lot of firing. 

Key takeaways from today's WTI crude oil reversal

• The original bearish scenario reached its first target at $89.58, but did not continue to the second target at $88.67.
• The move to $89.57 failed quickly, with the same 30-minute candle closing back near $90.55.
• The bullish tradeCompass scenario later activated above $90.90.
• All four bullish targets at $91.14, $91.28, $91.80 and $92.46 were reached.
• WTI subsequently extended to $93.14, approximately $2.24 above the bullish activation level.
• The directional score has shifted from -4 to +5 on a -10 to +10 scale.

This follow-up refers to the original WTI crude oil tradeCompass analysis, which mapped both a bearish scenario below $90.00 and an opposing bullish scenario above $90.90.

What happened to…

Headlines:

• USD/JPY extends fall today in drop back below 158, what's next?
• Bond yields pull back from the highs as focus turns to US jobs report next
• WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis: Bears Favored Below $90
• Gold upside remains limited by Fed rate hike risks and Iran war; traders await US CPI for next direction
• Nasdaq's fate hinges on US CPI and Middle East conflict as growth expectations deteriorate
• Swiss inflation nudges up in August amid higher energy prices
• Euro area business activity keeps steadier in August, reaffirms ECB policy pathway

Markets:

• JPY leads, USD lags on the day
• WTI crude up 2.2% to $93.02
• US 10-year yields down 2 bps to 4.774%
• Gold up 1.3% to $4,443
• European indices mixed; S&P 500 futures flat
• Bitcoin up 0.6% to $77,897

The big mover…

We've all been there before. When you're in the market, trading often times creates the pressure to act. It's just how it is.

Prices move ever so quickly in markets and headlines flash across the screens in an instant. You then see big moves on the charts and people talking all about it everywhere. Even more so in this day and age when everything is amped up by social media, dialing things up from zero to ten in no time and promoting the fear of missing out.

It creates an impression that if you are not buying or selling something, you are falling behind.

However, it's always important to take a step back or perhaps even to just take a walk. Step away from the screens and just remember, trading is not a competition of who can press buttons…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

The recent rally in oil prices has been driven by a sharp re-escalation in the Middle East, involving once again the Strait of Hormuz. The US carried out new strikes against Iranian targets after alleged attacks on commercial shipping and US personnel, while Iran has threatened to disrupt Gulf oil exports and has taken a more aggressive posture in Hormuz.

The move higher was about the increase in risk premium, specifically about the perceived time extension of the conflict. As you recall, at the beginning of August, it looked like things were finally starting to ease and military actions were set aside. This week, the expectations changed as a…

Global bond markets are facing one of their sharpest repricings in years. The selloff accelerated on Tuesday, September 1, and extended into Wednesday as investors confronted a combination of renewed inflation risks, higher oil prices, deteriorating fiscal positions and expectations that central banks may have to keep monetary policy tighter for longer.

The scale of the move is striking. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.81%, close to a three-year high, with a move toward 5% increasingly viewed as possible. Japan's 10-year government bond yield moved above 3%, its highest level in 30 years, while Australia's 10-year yield reached 5.198%, a more than 15-year high. In Europe, German Bund futures fell to their lowest level…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 03 September 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Stronger Chinese services activity and Japanese services growth have provided a positive macro backdrop, but the biggest currency story remains the Japanese yen’s sharp appreciation as markets increasingly price the possibility of additional BoJ tightening. At the same time, U.S.–Iran tensions continue to keep crude oil near $95, maintaining an inflation risk that could influence global central-bank expectations. Asian equities have consequently recovered from Wednesday’s selloff, while gold retains safe-haven support.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

The European session will be heavily influenced by Eurozone inflation at 3.3% and…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Gold erased completely the Treasury buyback announcement gains after Fed Chair Warsh retightened financial conditions with his hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Since yesterday, we’ve started to see pullbacks across many markets as the hawkish repricing run its course and things stabilised.

The US CPI report next Friday remains the key risk event that could influence interest rate expectations and decide the next direction for gold. As of now, traders are seeing a 58% chance of a rate hike in September.

I think only a soft CPI could bring the probabilities below 50% and deter the Fed from hiking at the upcoming meeting. If the probabilities…