Market News

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 19 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Focus on the ongoing Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy meeting, which concludes today (expected to hold rates at 0.75%), amid Middle East tensions, US inflation data influencing sentiment, and persistent oil supply concerns in the Strait of Hormuz. Escalating US-Iran conflicts kept Brent crude above $100/barrel for days, driving volatility. At the same time, gold prices dropped sharply, nearly 3% intraday, to around $4,840/oz on hotter-than-expected US inflation readings, reducing safe-haven demand.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders should closely monitor today’s key US economic releases and ongoing geopolitical tensions…

US Stocks Sink After Hawkish Fed – Dow Off 1.6%
US markets came under significant pressure overnight as a combination of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a more hawkish Federal Reserve outcome drove volatility across global asset classes. All three major US equity indices closed firmly lower, with the Dow Jones falling 1.63% to 46,225, the S&P 500 declining 1.36% to 6,624, and the Nasdaq shedding 1.46% to finish at 22,152. Sentiment deteriorated as oil prices surged and investors digested a shift in the Fed’s forward guidance. While the FOMC held rates as widely expected, the tone of the update leaned more hawkish than markets had anticipated. Policymakers continued to project just one rate cut for the remainder of…

US Stocks Sink After Hawkish Fed – Dow Off 1.6%
US markets came under significant pressure overnight as a combination of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a more hawkish Federal Reserve outcome drove volatility across global asset classes. All three major US equity indices closed firmly lower, with the Dow Jones falling 1.63% to 46,225, the S&P 500 declining 1.36% to 6,624, and the Nasdaq shedding 1.46% to finish at 22,152. Sentiment deteriorated as oil prices surged and investors digested a shift in the Fed’s forward guidance. While the FOMC held rates as widely expected, the tone of the update leaned more hawkish than markets had anticipated. Policymakers continued to project just one rate cut for the remainder of…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 19 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Overnight U.S. session were dominated by central bank hold expectations (Fed on March 18, BoE at 3.75%) against persistent inflation and oil price surges from Iran tensions, with sparse fresh macro data but echoes of recent hot PPI and soft jobs prints fueling risk aversion; this pressured U.S. equity futures (S&P 500 and Nasdaq down over 1%), weakened the DXY via channel breakdowns, and boosted safe havens like gold/silver to records while oil rallied toward $72 amid U.S. military escalations in the Middle East.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Oil volatility from Middle East conflicts remains the dominant theme, pushing crude…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 19 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Overnight U.S. session were dominated by central bank hold expectations (Fed on March 18, BoE at 3.75%) against persistent inflation and oil price surges from Iran tensions, with sparse fresh macro data but echoes of recent hot PPI and soft jobs prints fueling risk aversion; this pressured U.S. equity futures (S&P 500 and Nasdaq down over 1%), weakened the DXY via channel breakdowns, and boosted safe havens like gold/silver to records while oil rallied toward $72 amid U.S. military escalations in the Middle East.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Oil volatility from Middle East conflicts remains the dominant theme, pushing crude…

• Prior 5.2%
• Employment change 84k vs -4k expected
• Prior 52k
• Average weekly earnings +3.9% vs +3.9% 3m/y expected
• Prior +4.2%
• Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.8% vs +4.0% 3m/y expected
• Prior +4.2%; revised to +4.1%
• February payrolls change 20k
• Prior -11k; revised to 6k

There are quite a few positives to note, one that the BOE can be a little happier with at the balance. For one, the jobless rate is seen keeping steady in January and payrolls in February recorded a positive estimate (alongside a positive revision for January too). Besides that, wage pressures are also seen moderating further with real earnings ex bonus now dropping to +0.5% - matching the three months from April to June last year (which was the softest in two years).

All that…

• Barclays flags strongest stock buy signal in a year as sentiment resets
• Fed set to hold as Deutsche Bank flags geopolitics clouding outlook
• China approves Nvidia H200 AI chip sales as licences granted to multiple firms
• China firms ramp up FX hedging as yuan strength threatens export earnings
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8909 (vs. estimate at 6.8798)
• India is working with Iran to secure safe passage for key fuel shipments through Hormuz,
• Projectile strikes near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant, no damage reported
• Japan exports beat forecasts but lose momentum from prior surge
• Australia leading index steady. Growth outlook softens to below trend on rate hikes & war
• Japan firms set for strong wage hikes as labour shortages persist, outlook…

The FT reports on the matter, noting that US president Trump has given his word that the US would insure commercial vessels seeking passage through the Strait of Hormuz. And the US administration has looked into how to go about that by exploring plans to tie it with government insurance.

To be more specific, it would require the ships that are willing to be escorted by the US Navy to buy insurance from the Development Finance Corporation (DFC). That is the US government's international investment arm so to speak. The insurance programme is said to be one that will be run by the DFC alongside Chubb, a private insurer.

For now, the sources say that it is unclear if Trump will want to proceed with this. But if put into effect, it will be…

• Preview - Bank of England to hold rates as Middle East conflict lifts inflation risks
• The Bank of Japan held its short-term policy rate at 0.75%, as widely expected
• Trump warns of massive retaliation tied to South Pars as energy risks escalate
• Australia jobs surge masks softening as RBA tightening path stays intact
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8875 (vs. estimate at 6.8955)
• Japan warns on speculative FX moves, keeps intervention option in focus
• RBA warns Middle East conflict could trigger global shock and market repricing
• Australian February 2026 unemployment rate 4.3% (expected 4.1%, prior 4.1%)
• U.S. weighs troop deployment to secure Hormuz in major escalation step
• Vessel hit off UAE coast as maritime risks escalate in Gulf
• S&P…

I'll have details and analysis posted separately.

Mixed report this one, big number of jobs added, unemployment rate jumps, more job seekers in the market, full time jobs collapse.

New Zealand Q4 GDP misses expectations, momentum faded into year-end

Summary:

• Q4 GDP undershoots expectations on both quarterly and annual measures

• Growth slows sharply from prior quarter, signalling fading momentum

• Production-based GDP +0.2% q/q vs +1.1% prior

• Annual growth holds at 1.3% y/y, missing forecasts

• Expenditure-based GDP weaker at +0.1% q/q

• NZD briefly volatile, then edged lower on softer data

• Reinforces fragile recovery backdrop and mixed domestic demand signals

New Zealand’s economy lost momentum into the end of 2025, with fourth-quarter GDP data coming in below expectations and reinforcing a softening growth profile that is likely to keep the policy outlook finely balanced.

Headline growth rose just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter,…

New Zealand Q4 GDP misses expectations, momentum faded into year-end

Summary:

• Q4 GDP undershoots expectations on both quarterly and annual measures

• Growth slows sharply from prior quarter, signalling fading momentum

• Production-based GDP +0.2% q/q vs +1.1% prior

• Annual growth holds at 1.3% y/y, missing forecasts

• Expenditure-based GDP weaker at +0.1% q/q

• NZD briefly volatile, then edged lower on softer data

• Reinforces fragile recovery backdrop and mixed domestic demand signals

New Zealand’s economy lost momentum into the end of 2025, with fourth-quarter GDP data coming in below expectations and reinforcing a softening growth profile that is likely to keep the policy outlook finely balanced.

Headline growth rose just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter,…