Market News

Projectile hits near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant, raising risks without immediate damage.

Summary:

• IAEA says a projectile struck the Bushehr nuclear power plant site

• No damage to the facility and no injuries reported

• Strike occurred near, not within, critical nuclear infrastructure

• Bushehr is Iran’s only operational nuclear power plant

• Incident highlights rising risk to nuclear facilities amid conflict

• Adds to geopolitical risk premium despite no immediate escalation

A projectile struck the premises of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant on Tuesday evening, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), marking a concerning escalation in the proximity of military activity to critical nuclear infrastructure. Iranian authorities…

Japan swings to trade surplus as exports beat expectations despite weak China demand.

Summary:

• Japan February exports +4.2% y/y (exp. +1.6%, prior +16.8%)

• Imports +10.2% y/y (exp. +11.5%, prior -2.5%)

• Trade balance +¥57.3bn (exp. -¥483.2bn, prior -¥1.15tn)

• Exports to China -10.9% y/y, US -8% y/y

• Exports to EU +14% y/y, Asia +2.8% y/y

• Data shows mixed external demand with sharp regional divergence

Japan’s trade balance unexpectedly returned to surplus in February, with Ministry of Finance data showing a surplus of ¥57.3 billion, sharply beating expectations for a ¥483.2 billion deficit and improving significantly from the ¥1.15 trillion deficit recorded in January.

The surprise surplus was driven in part by stronger-than-expected export…

Australia’s leading index holds just above trend, but momentum is fading as headwinds build.

Summary:

• Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index held at +0.08% in February (unchanged from January)

• Down from +0.13% in September, signalling moderating momentum

• Growth remains slightly above trend but losing pace

• Financial components (ASX cooling) offset by commodities and hours worked

• RBA rate hikes and Middle East conflict expected to weigh further

• Westpac sees GDP slowing to ~2.0% in 2026 (from 2.5% in 2025)

Australia’s growth outlook is showing early signs of softening, with the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index holding steady at +0.08% in February on a six-month annualised basis, unchanged from January but down from stronger readings late…

Russia has been expanding its intelligence sharing and military cooperation with Iran, providing satellite imagery and improved drone technology, according to the WSJ.

The report says "Russia is trying to keep Iran in the fight".

That makes total sense from Russia's perspective as it:

1. Boosts oil prices
2. Gives the US a taste of its own medicine from Ukraine
3. Limits weapons that can be sent to Ukraine
4. Protects a market for its weapons exports
5. Provides a testing ground for its weapons, particularly naval weapons

I can't see any reason why Russia would give up this strategy which is what scares me regarding a prolonged conflict. The echos of Ukraine are extremely strong.

The only downside for Russia is that exporting weapons to Iran right now could…

Data releases today are unlikely to have much of an immediate impact on financial markets.

I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• Trump was informed most "allies" won't help with Hormoz. Says US doesn't need help anyway
• Trump on the war: A couple of weeks, not much longer
• Trump: NATO is making a foolish mistake. They should have been there.
• U.S. Treasury auctions of $13 billion of 20 year notes at a high yield of 4.817%
• US February pending home sales +1.8% vs -0.5% expected
• US Director of the National Counterterrorism Center resigns over Iran war
• DAL stock up 4%: Delta Airlines sees booming demand for travel despite oil price spike

Markets:

• S&P 500 up 20 points to 6716
• Gold down $4 to $5000
• WTI crude oil up $2.78 to $92.23
• US 10-year yields down 2.3 bps to 4.196%
• AUD leads, CAD lags

Today was the first day since the start of the war where stock markets and oil didn't move in…

Trump says the Iran campaign is "way ahead of schedule" and expects it to conclude "in a couple of weeks" and "not much longer".

At the outset, he said 4-5 weeks and we're not two-and-a-half weeks into it so a couple of weeks isn't exactly "way ahead of schedule". My fear -- and the one of most people watching energy -- is that Trump doesn't get to decide the timeline, Iran also does.

Trump called it a short-term excursion and that it will take 10 years for Iran to repair damage, but that it must be made permanent.

With all these timelines, it makes sense for Iran's military to hide out and wait out Trump. Then they can take control of Hormuz and regain some mobility once the US backs away.

Also notable is that in his message today, Netanyahu…

• High-yield 4.817%
• WI level at the time of the auction 4.824%
• Tail -0.7 bps versus 6 month average of 0.0 basis points
• 2.76X versus 6 month average of 2.63X
• 9.24% versus 6 month average of 10.9%
• Directs 21.58 vs 6 month average of 27.0%
• Indirects 69.18% vs 6 month average of 62.1%

AUCTION GRADE: A-

The international buyers were strong taking nearly 70% of the issue. The bid to cover was stronger than the average. The tail showed a willingness to pay up to get the issue. The domestic buyers were lower-than-expected as they were outbid by the international buyers. Overall a solid auction.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Don't need any help excorting ships through Strait of Hormuz
• NATO is making a foolish mistake. They should have been there
• Great support from Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain on Iran.
• Israel has been very, very strong
• Iran has been acting up for 37, 47, 48 years.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

• Don't need any help excorting ships through Strait of Hormuz
• NATO is making a foolish mistake. They should have been there
• Great support from Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain on Iran.
• Israel has been very, very strong
• Iran has been acting up for 37, 47, 48 years.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump started a war without consulting any allies and then asked for their help. Evidently, they mostly told him they don't want to send ships to Hormuz despite his weekend pleas.

Now he's angry but says the US doesn't need help anyway.

The United States has been informed by most of our NATO “Allies” that they don’t want to get involved with our Military Operation against the Terrorist Regime of Iran, in the Middle East, this, despite the fact that almost every Country strongly agreed with what we are doing, and that Iran cannot, in any way, shape, or form, be allowed to have a Nuclear Weapon. I am not surprised by their action, however, because I always considered NATO, where we spend Hundreds of Billions of Dollars per year…

Trump yesterday hinted that France would ultimately get involved in a Hormuz operation and now we're seeing signs that's true, though with some strange caveats:

• Once strikes have stopped, we are read to take the responsibility of an escort system in Hormuz
• Any role in Hormuz would be only if there is an end to hostilities
• Any such Hormuz mission would need Iranian coordination

This is a tough position to make sense of as it implies Iran would be involved rather than fighting it. Perhaps that makes sense if Iran splinters and a central government seeks peace while commanders near Hormuz continue to wage war? Or maybe it's Macron trying to walk a fine line where he doesn't really want to get involved while not directly rebuking Trump.

Oil is…