Market News

• Container ship damaged off UAE, hit by suspected projectile near Strait of Hormuz
• Westpac lifts RBA peak rate forecast to 4.35%, sees RBA hiking rates in March and May
• Australian bank analysts are piling on to forecast an RBA rate hike next week
• Weak yen and oil shock cloud Japan inflation outlook -- PPI recap
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.8917 (vs. estimate at 6.8824)
• Goldman Sachs February CPI preview signals gradual inflation slowdown, not everyone agrees
• The IEA is weighing a record oil reserve release to calm markets after Hormuz disruption
• Japanese wholesale prices +2.0% y/y in February (2.1% expected)
• ICYMI: Debate grows over political influence on Bank of Japan policy
• ICYMI: RBA’s Hauser warns oil price risks could intensify rate…

Japan’s wholesale inflation cooled in February but rising oil prices from the Iran conflict threaten to push price pressures higher again.

Summary:

• Japan’s corporate goods price index (CGPI) rose 2.0% y/y in February, below the 2.1% forecast.

• Wholesale inflation slowed from January’s 2.3% rise, marking a third straight month of easing.

• Government fuel subsidies helped offset rising commodity costs, cushioning price pressures.

• Import prices jumped 2.8% y/y, the fastest pace since July 2024, reflecting a weaker yen.

• Economists warn the Middle East oil shock could soon push wholesale inflation higher again.

Japan’s wholesale inflation slowed for a third consecutive month in February as government fuel subsidies helped cushion companies from rising…

Goldman Sachs expects February CPI to show easing core inflation as autos and shelter moderate.

Data due at 0830 US Eastern time on Wednesday, March 11, 2026.

Summary:

• Goldman Sachs expects February core CPI to rise 0.17% m/m, below the 0.2% consensus.

• The forecast implies 2.42% year-on-year core inflation, versus 2.5% consensus.

• Headline CPI is projected to rise 0.18% m/m, also below expectations.

• Softer used car prices and auto insurance are expected to help ease inflation pressures.

• Shelter inflation is forecast to moderate further, while tariffs could push some categories higher.

Goldman Sachs expects U.S. inflation to show signs of cooling in February, with softer price pressures in several key categories likely to keep the overall CPI…

Japan PPI for February 2026, AKA corporate goods price index (CGPI), measures the price companies charge each other for their goods and services:

-0.1% m/m

• expected 0.2%, prior 0.2%

2.0% y/y

• expected 2.1%, prior 2.3%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

North Korea tested a cruise missile designed for naval deployment while backing Iran and condemning U.S. and Israeli military actions.

Summary:

• North Korea conducted a strategic cruise missile test on Tuesday, according to state media KCNA.

• The missile was designed for deployment on a naval destroyer, highlighting Pyongyang’s expanding naval strike capability.

• Leader Kim Jong Un said destroyers must be equipped with supersonic weapons, signalling continued military modernisation.

• North Korea also voiced support for Iran’s political process to select a new supreme leader.

• Pyongyang condemned what it called “illegal” U.S. and Israeli military attacks against Iran.

North Korea said it had conducted a strategic cruise missile test designed for use…

Japan wholesale level inflation indicator, the PPI, is due today. Expected just a loittle softer.

Still, the most focus for markets will be on the war makers.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• Iran has laid 'a few dozen' mines in the Strait of Hormuz - report
• Trump: We have no reports of Iran placing mines in the Hormuz Strait
• US intel sees signs that Iran is preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz - report
• US Energy Sec removes video saying the US Navy escorted a tanker through Strait of Hormuz
• US February existing home sales 4.09m vs 3.89m expected
• The U.S. Treasury sold $58 billion of 3 year notes at a high yield of 3.579%
• US February NFIB small business optimism index 98.8 vs 99.6 expected

Markets:

• WTI crude oil down $7.95 to $86.85
• Gold up $60 to $5196
• US 10-year yields up 1.8 bps to 4.15%
• S&P 500 down 0.3%
• Bitcoin up $1013 to $70,015
• AUD leads, EUR lags

Oil is the tail that's wagging the dog at the moment and what it mess it was…

Do you ever get the sense that someone is playing games?

CNN reported just minutes ago that Iran has placed a few dozen mines in the Strait of Hormuz. They cited "according to two people familiar with US intelligence reporting on the issue", who were unnamed but they were no doubt sourced (and not made up).

Now Trump is saying there are no reports of mines?

If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY! If for any reason mines were placed, and they are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before. If, on the other hand, they remove what may have been placed, it will be a giant step in the right direction!…

Oil prices are rising once again after a CNN report said Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

"Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint that carries about one-fifth of all crude oil, according to two people familiar with US intelligence reporting on the issue," CNN writes.

The report says that only 'a few dozen' are in place so far but that Iran is using small boats 'in recent days'. This echoes the prior report from CBS that said Iran was 'preparing' mines but takes it a step further.

The report from CNN said Iran could deploy hundreds more mines and the CBS report said it had 3-6000 mines.

The issues is that de-mining is a time-intensive task at best and that could…

• High Yield: 3.579% vs 6-month avg. 3.563%

• WI level at the time of the auction 3.568%

• Tail 1.1 bps vs 6 month average of -0.6 bps

• Bid-to-Cover 2.55X vs 6 month average of 2.69x

• Dealers 19.5% vs 6 month average of 10.5%

• Directs 20.7% versus 6 month average of 25.3%

• Indirects: 59.8% versus 6 month average of 64.3%

AUCTION GRADE: D

Not a good auction as the dealers were saddled with 19.5% while above the 10.5% 6 month average. The tail was 1.1 basis points which was also well above the -0.6 basis point average. Both domestic and international demand was well below the averages. The only reason it indicated a grade of F, is the auction did not fail. That is, there was enough bidders to buy it. However, for a 3 year note auction, the demand was tepid…