Market News

• Prior month 7.182 million
• JOLTs job openings for July 7.271M vs 7.300M estimate. 

Details from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Job openings: Little changed at 7.3 million in July, with the openings rate steady at 4.4%. Durable goods manufacturing openings increased by 76,000.
• Hires: Little changed at 5.1 million, with a hiring rate of 3.2%. Professional and business services hiring fell by 188,000, a softer detail.
• Total separations: Little changed at 5.1 million, with a rate of 3.2%. No significant changes across industries.
• Quits: Little changed at 3.1 million, with the quits rate at 1.9%. Quits in other services declined by 46,000. Workers showed no increased willingness or ability to leave their jobs.
• Layoffs and discharges: Little…

• Prior month 53.9
• Preliminary estimate for manufacturing PMI 53.2
• S&P global manufacturing PMI final 53.9

Details from S&P Global on the survey report:

• S&P Global US manufacturing PMI held at 53.9 in August, signaling another solid expansion in operating conditions.
• Production increased for the 15th consecutive month, but growth slowed to its weakest pace since February as higher prices and tight supplies weighed.
• New orders rose at a solid pace, little changed from July, with demand largely driven by the domestic market.
• Export orders declined for the 14th consecutive month. Tariffs weighed on foreign sales, although some firms reported improving demand from Europe.
• Supply pressures persisted, with delivery times lengthening markedly. Firms…

Fed Governor Michael Barr’s comments:

• Inflation remains too high.
• Favors holding rates steady if confident inflation is moderating.
• The labor market is stable, with low unemployment.
• The economy is growing solidly, boosted by artificial intelligence investment.
• If inflation does not moderate soon, it will be time for an interest rate hike.
• Persistent inflation above target creates risks.

Fed Governor Michael Barr’s comments lean more hawkish, with a rate hike on the table if inflation does not moderate soon. Although he would favor holding rates steady if inflation is moving lower, his warning that persistent above-target inflation creates risks puts the burden on the data to show improvement.

Meanwhile, solid economic growth, AI…

ECB's Nagel is speaning and says:

• Despite tensions in the middle east, the global economy remains on a growth trajectory.
• Easing in core and services is good news and not seeing second-round effects
• He welcomes coordinated intervention on the JPY
• He expects consultations on future intervention measures

The USDJPY remains above its 100 day moving average at 160.01.

For the EURJPY, it has been trading above and below its 100 and 200 hour moving averages near 185.57 and 185.63. The converged moving averages are begging for the next a shove. On the downside, the 100 day moving average comes in at 185.099. Below that and the 100 and 200 hour moving averages on the 4 hour chart are near 184.85 in 184.76 followed by the 200 day moving average of…

The USD is higher against all the major currencies as September trading gets underway. US yields are mostly higher, crude oil is extending its gains, and gold and silver are moving lower. In the morning Kickstart video, I take a look at the technical picture for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD, outlining the levels that define the bias, the risk and the next targets.

The USD’s gains against the major currencies are:

• EUR: +0.19%

• JPY: +0.21%

• GBP: +0.09%

• CHF: +0.22%

• CAD: +0.17%

• AUD: +0.28%

• NZD: +0.30%

The USD is the strongest of the major currencies, while the NZD is the weakest. The GBP is holding up the best against the greenback.

The low-to-high trading ranges are:

• EURUSD: 1.1589 to 1.1624 — 35 pips.

• USDJPY: 159.65 to 160.14 — 49 pips.

• GBPUSD: 1.3530 to…

Why Are Global Bond Yields Rising? A Step-by-Step Guide to Bonds, Interest Rates and Stocks

Global government bond yields are climbing because investors want more compensation for inflation, expected interest-rate increases, heavy government borrowing and the uncertainty of lending money for many years. The move may look orderly, but it can still raise borrowing costs and reset valuations across bonds, stocks, mortgages, currencies and other investments.

Key takeaways for investors and traders

• A bond is a loan: Buying a government bond means lending money to that government.

• Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions: When existing bond prices fall, their yields rise.

• Higher yields have mixed effects: They hurt some existing…

• S&P 500 analysis (with video) shows bears are back but where is the next bounce?
• Bitcoin at crossroads after hawkish Warsh: traders waiting for 77K-80K range break
• Euro area inflation climbs above 3% in August on higher energy prices
• UK mortgage borrowing slows in July, though consumer borrowing continues to hold up
• Euro area factory growth continues to expand in August, driven by Germany - PMI data
• USD/JPY continues to test the waters at the 160 mark
• France manufacturing confirmed to pick up a little in August - PMI data
• Stock Movers to Watch Today: PCG and EIX Plunge as RBLX, CRWD, TSLA and SLB Rally. Notable earnings reporters later today.
• Italy August preliminary CPI +3.3% vs +3.3% y/y expected
• UK August final manufacturing PMI 51.7 vs 51.5…

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Bitcoin dropped on Friday after Fed Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The key passage was him saying "I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive". The market interpreted that as him leaning against the recent easing in financial conditions and, therefore, retightened them.

As you recall, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, rallied strongly on “debasement” fears following the US Treasury buyback announcement to suppress long-term yields. Warsh’s speech has triggered a reversal in the "debasement" trades, with gold and the US dollar returning to pre-US…

S&P 500 Futures Outlook: Broken Bear Flag Puts the 7,600 Zone Back in Focus

S&P 500 futures have broken below an upward-sloping consolidation and rejected two attempts to recover the lost channel. That keeps the short-term structure cautious near 7,650. However, the approaching 7,600-7,620 zone may provide an important test of whether this remains a controlled pullback or develops into a deeper correction.

Key takeaways for S&P 500 traders and investors

• Short-term structure: Sellers have the advantage after the upward channel broke and two recovery attempts failed.

• Main area to watch: The 7,600-7,620 region combines a major round number with an important former resistance area.

• Overhead pressure: The former channel and recent rejection zone…

• Prior 51.3

Key findings:

• Renewed decline in output amid faltering demand conditions
• Steepest drop in new orders in almost a year-anda-half
• First fall in production volumes in seven months
• Cost pressures ease as purchasing activity drops sharply

Comment:

Eleanor Dennison, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

"The impact of unfavourable demand conditions rippled through the Italian manufacturing sector in August. There was evidence of particular weakness in the domestic market, with export sales falling to a comparatively softer degree. This drop in new orders was sufficient enough for firms to lower their production volumes for the first time in seven months and to sharply reduce their input purchasing.

"The external environment…

• Prior +2.9%
• HICP +3.2% vs +3.4% y/y expected
• Prior +2.9%

Italy's inflation rate accelerated in August 2026, driven primarily by a sharp increase in energy costs. The Consumer Price Index rose by 0.5% compared with July and increased by 3.3% on an annual basis, up from 2.9% in the previous month.

The main driver behind the acceleration was the energy sector. Prices for non-regulated energy products climbed 16.9% y/y, accelerating from 11.4% in July. Meanwhile, regulated energy products rose 18.8% annually, compared with 14.8% in the previous month.

The strong rise in energy prices contributed significantly to the monthly increase in the overall index. Regulated energy products increased by 3.2% compared with July, while non-regulated energy…

• Eurozone August preliminary CPI +3.3% vs +3.3% y/y expected
• Prior +2.9%
• Eurozone August preliminary core CPI +2.4% vs +2.5% y/y expected
• Prior +2.5%

No surprises there as headline annual inflation jumps back up above the 3% mark again - the first time since May. This is largely led by a surge in energy price inflation, which clocked in at 14.3% in August. That is seen way up from 10.3% in July.

Even on the monthly estimate, energy prices were seen shooting up by 2.9%. That is what is pushing up monthly headline inflation by 0.4% in August. Besides that, services inflation was up 0.1% on the month while food price inflation was flat.

The only surprise in this report was that core annual inflation was seen easing just a little bit more to 2.4%.…