Market News

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 09 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Disappointing February jobs report revealing 92k payroll losses and 4.4% unemployment, fueling recession concerns, while surging oil prices from U.S.-Iran tensions exacerbated inflation worries, triggering sharp declines in stocks (S&P 500 -1.33%, Dow -0.95%), VIX spike to 29.49, and mixed Treasury yields with the 10-year at 4.14%; energy commodities rallied strongly, underscoring stagflation risks ahead of Fed decisions.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders face a high-volatility open driven by escalating Middle East tensions disrupting oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent crude toward $93 per barrel…

US Stocks Crash on Non-Farms Miss and Conflict Concerns – Nasdaq down 1.6%
US stocks took another big hit on Friday after US employment data came in a lot lower than expected while the conflict in the Middle East rolled on with no signs of slowing. The Dow Jones declined 0.94% to close at 47,501, while the S&P 500 fell 1.33% to finish at 6,740. The technology-heavy Nasdaq led the losses, dropping 1.59% to close at 22,387. In fixed income markets, US Treasury yields finished the session relatively steady as competing forces influenced trading. Treasury yields closed near flat as the impact of the weaker employment data was offset by continued inflation concerns. The US 2-Year fell 1.6 basis points to 3.561%, while the 10-Year edged slightly…

• Prior +7.8%; revised to +6.4%

When you exclude large orders, overall factory orders in Germany were just 0.4% lower than in December last year. Once again, it reflects the volatile swings in large orders mostly with December recording a major jump - its highest level since February 2022. The less volatile three-month comparison for new orders show a 1.5% increase overall instead, that is once you exclude large orders as well.

Looking at the details, the orders for the manufacture of metal products showed a 39.4% drop in January compared to December (which increased by 29.7%). So, that makes up for a large chunk of what we're seeing with the headline figure.

Besides that, there were also declines in mechanical engineering (-13.5%) and in…

• Prior -1.9%; revised to -1.0%

The drag here also comes after a more positive revision to the December numbers, so keep that in mind. Still, German industrial output was much weaker in January amid a steeper drop in production in the manufacture of metal products (-12.4%). Looking at the breakdown, the production of consumer goods fell by 4.2%, the production of intermediate goods by 2.6%, and the production of capital goods by 1.6%.

The year-on-year reading shows overall German industrial production dropping by 2.6% after adjusting for calendar effects.

That as the report notes that preparations are now being made in anticipation of a prolonged de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

For some context, there are ten national oil stockpiles in Japan. And they are either managed by the Japan Energy and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) and privately operated stockpiles. The government has now instructed these storage bases to prepare for release.

That as it would seem to line up with the reported joint release and coordinated effort with the IEA earlier here.

The full Nikkei report can be found here (may be gated).

• Hard to say how the conflict in the Middle East could affect Japan's economy
• Many citizens are worried about rising gasoline prices
• The government is scrutinising to see what steps it can take
• Any steps taken to mitigate the impact won't likely involve changes to the fiscal year 2026 budget

In just a week, Japan has had to pay ~70% more dollars to secure the same amount of oil it needs to run the economy. And that really stings for a country that is ever so heavily reliant on energy imports.

Amid the surge in oil prices, Japan is one of the biggest losers tied to the conflict. The country risks running a further deficit and to think about subsidies to help, that will increase debt pressures even more. And that comes at a poor time amid heavy…

It is being reported by Reuters that there is thick smoke rising from the direction of Bahrain's Bapco oil refinery. This is one of the oldest and most strategic energy hubs in the region, with Bahrain even investing heavily to modernise the facility and infrastructure.

For some context, the energy accounts for roughly 70% of Bahrain's GDP and much of that is anchored by Bapco. Think of it as the Aramco to Saudi Arabia but for Bahrain.

In terms of output capacity, Bapco's refinery hub produces about 405,000 barrels per day and that is no small amount. To put things into perspective, Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura facility - also disrupted by Iran's drone strikes - does about 550,000 barrels per day.

The Reuters' witness says that the smoke…

What a scintillating start to the new week this is. Oil prices have surged by well over 20%, poised for its largest one-day gain on record. And we're talking about prices near $120 again after having initially hesitated to get above $80 last week.

I mentioned last week already that the $80 mark was the key barometer for the temperature in the room:

"The $80 mark is a key line in the sand now. A push above that suggests that traders are growing ever more nervous about the Middle East conflict. Keep below and it leans more towards simmering tensions with hopes that things will settle down soon enough. If traders get around the idea of holding above $80, I'm afraid we might get a rush to much higher levels and even see talks about triple…

• Trump unhappy about Israel's Iran fuel strikes - report
• Iran chooses Khamenei's son as new Supreme Leader
• China February CPI +1.3% vs +0.8% expected
• Japana January current account surplus 941.6B vs 960B expected
• Japanese January labour cash earnings +3.0% vs +2.4% prior
• Trump: Oil will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over
• Lindsey Graham: The liberation of Cuba is upon us
• China's gold buying spree continues as reserves climb for a 16th straight month

Markets:

• WTI crude oil up $22.15 to $113.10 per barrel
• US 10-year yields up 6.8 bps to 4.20%
• Gold down $73 to $5097
• USD leads, EUR lags
• Gold down $69 to $5100
• Nikkei down 7.0%
• Kospi halted after 8% decline
• ASX 200 in worst day since covid, down 4.3%

The weekend war news wasn't…