Market News

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.05%, Shanghai Composite up 0.04%, Hang Seng up 1.77% ASX down 1.20%
• Commodities : Gold at $5,144.01 (1.28%) Silver at $84.630 (2.97%), Brent Oil at $84.47 (-1.08%), WTI Oil at $79.99 (-1.26%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.139, UK 10-year yield at 4.5440, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8535

• (USD) Unemployment Claims  K  to 215K  expected

Asian stock markets are trading mixed on Friday following broadly negative cues from Wall Street overnight, as investors remain cautious about the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Concerns over supply disruptions pushed crude oil prices above $81 a barrel, although gains in energy stocks…

We're starting to see oil prices approach the highs from yesterday and most notably, WTI crude oil is wanting to hold above the crucial $80 mark. Despite all the volatility and a couple of downside spikes here and there, it's been an otherwise one-sided push higher mostly for oil prices all through this week.

Right now, we're seeing WTI crude oil be up 0.7% on the day to $81.70 while Brent crude oil is up 0.6% near the $86 mark. All of this will just continue to reinvigorate talks of prices potentially hitting triple digits next.

The way I see it, the oil market is basically a translation of the vote of confidence from broader market participants towards the US-Iran conflict. And with weekend positioning risks to consider, traders appear to…

US Indices Fall as War in the Middle East Rolls on – Dow down 1.6%
US equity markets moved lower overnight as the conflict in the Middle East entered its sixth day. All three major US indices closed the session in negative territory. The Dow Jones declined 1.61% to finish at 47,954, while the S&P 500 fell 0.56% to 6,830. The Nasdaq proved comparatively resilient, easing 0.26% to close at 22,748. The US dollar continued to strengthen, with the DXY rising 0.29% to 99.08 as investors sought relative safety in the greenback. US Treasury yields also extended their recent move higher, recording a fourth consecutive daily gain. The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 3.2 basis points to 3.579%, while the 10-year yield rose 4.0 basis points to…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 06 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

U.S. markets on March 5 dipped amid surging oil prices from U.S.-Iran conflict fears, despite steady jobless claims at 213K bolstering labor stability; equities like S&P 500 (-0.27%), Dow (-0.52%), and Nasdaq (-0.31%) were hit hardest, while oil rallied sharply on supply risks, underscoring geopolitics’ dominance over macro data.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Ongoing Middle East tensions are driving oil price swings and fragile equity rebounds. Key watchpoints include South Korea’s Kospi, which surged 10% on Thursday after steep losses, supported by stabilizing oil and strong memory chip demand from Samsung and SK Hynix, though…

• Prior +0.7%

Slight delay in the release by the source. UK house prices continue to edge up in February, with the average property price now touching £301,151 - marking a new record high. The annual growth for house prices also accelerated further to 1.3%, its strongest in four months.

Halifax notes that:

"The housing market built on its steady start to the year in February, with average prices rising by +0.3%, following an increase of +0.8% in January. Annual growth also picked up to +1.3%, its strongest rate for four months. Since the start of the year, average prices have increased by around £3,000, with a typical property now costing £301,151.

These latest figures suggest the market has regained some momentum after a softer end to…

• Japan has not fully exited from deflation
• Compiling extra budget would of course be an option as said before
• Government ready to take steps in a timely manner to combat economic impact from US-Iran conflict
• Markets are making big moves so we will respond nimbly while closely communicating with peers

With all the focus on the Middle East, we may get some added volatility from Japan before the week comes to a close. USD/JPY is bordering at the week's highs near the 158.00 level, threatening its highest levels since the 'rate check' at the end of January.

The main issue plaguing the currency is still the Takaichi trade for the most part. But amid the US-Iran conflict, higher oil prices are also weighing heavily on the economic outlook. And that…

• China hopes to convince Iran to allow LNG to pass through Hormuz
• Gulf states could review overseas investments - report
• Fed's Goolsbee: Institutions are facing a crisis of trust
• US admiral: Iran's ballistic missile attacks have decreased by 90%
• Trump says Iran is contacting them seeking guidance on negotiating a deal
• Costco beats on earnings but little reaction from shares

Markets:

• Gold up $57 to $5133
• WTI crude oil down 96-cents to $80.04
• AUD leads, USD lags
• Nikkei up 0.5%
• US 10-year yields down 1.2 bps to 4.14%

The US gave Iran a 30-day sanctions waiver to buy Russia crude in a move that's seen as an indication that the US has a limited appetite to continue to push oil prices higher. China is also pressuring Iran to allow ships carrying its energy…

Reuters is reporting that China is in direct talks with Iran to secure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for crude and Qatari LNG vessels. They cited three three diplomatic sources who are unnamed.

We're on day six of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran and the Strait is effectively closed for business, with about a fifth of global oil and LNG supply bottlenecked. Crude tanker transits collapsed from an average of 24 per day to just four on March 1. Around 300 tankers are sitting inside the Strait right now with nowhere to go and others can't get in to load once those ones leave.

Crude is up 15%+ since this kicked off and it's wildly bullish if the straight stays closed.

China gets roughly 45% of its oil through the Strait so Beijing…

The FT reports that pressure on the Arab Gulf states’ finances could cause them to review their overseas investments and commitments. The cost of the war is beginning to mount as Iran strikes at US allies and US bases in the region.

This report is undoubtedly aimed at putting pressure on the US to either subsidize their defense or seek peace in Iran. The countries have evidently held joint discussions about pressure on budges and may reassess how they manage the economic pain, including pulling overseas investment commitments.

Those commitments have been a signature achievement of Donald Trump's Presidency and this report was likely floated to get his attention.

Any move to pull back Gulf investment from the US and Western assets could put…

The mood is improving in Asia.

The steady selling of risk assets and flight to the US dollar has given way to some optimism in Asia and that's reflected in decent bids in the Australian dollar and broad USD weakness. That's come with some oil selling as the US floats more measures to stop the runaway rise in crude prices.

Notably, gold remains strongly bid as it has all week in Asia-Pacific hours. It just hit a session high, up $31 to $51.06.

S&P 500 futures are fractionally higher but the Nikkei's early bounce has given way to selling and it's down 1.3%, falling below the initial opening levels.

As for the Australian dollar, it's been a challenging week to trade as it's mostly been bounced around by war and oil sentiment. Early this week,…

The mood is improving in Asia.

The steady selling of risk assets and flight to the US dollar has given way to some optimism in Asia and that's reflected in decent bids in the Australian dollar and broad USD weakness. That's come with some oil selling as the US floats more measures to stop the runaway rise in crude prices.

Notably, gold remains strongly bid as it has all week in Asia-Pacific hours. It just hit a session high, up $31 to $51.06.

S&P 500 futures are fractionally higher but the Nikkei's early bounce has given way to selling and it's down 1.3%, falling below the initial opening levels.

As for the Australian dollar, it's been a challenging week to trade as it's mostly been bounced around by war and oil sentiment. Early this week,…

The clock is ticking on the USMCA joint review and Scotiabank just released a comprehensive report that's worth a read.

"The future of [USMCA] is the single most consequential macro uncertainty facing the Canadian economy this year," the report says.

The good news first: Scotiabank's baseline is that USMCA gets ratified or extended with limited adjustments that don't materially change the macro trajectory. They're explicit about this — the agreement is mutually beneficial and much of the recent US rhetoric looks like bargaining posture rather than a genuine signal to blow the deal up.

But "low probability" isn't "no probability," and the report's scenario analysis shows why even a small chance of a bad outcome demands attention. Their…