Market News

The volatile trading continues on the week and it's tough to hold any intraday convictions. S&P 500 futures were down by as much as 0.5% earlier on but have now climbed back up to pare losses to be up 0.1% on the day.

The only plausible headline I'm seeing that ties closely is one reported by Sky News Arabia, in citing Iran's foreign ministry as to saying that they might consider abandoning its nuclear program "if the US makes an attractive enough alternative offer". Quite frankly, the odds of that are almost nil I would say. We're already seeing both sides wage a war and Trump is not going to be patient enough to go back to the negotiating table.

As US futures bounce, European indices are also now turning positive with slight gains on the…

• Prior 46.4

Residential building was the main reason for the drag in overall construction activity in February, being the weakest-performing segment (37.0) once again. That being said, there were also contractions in both commercial construction activity (46.5) and civil engineering work (41.0) with the latter slumping to its softest since September last year.

S&P Global notes that:

"A sharper downturn in house building was the main factor behind the setback for UK construction activity in February, following some signs of stabilisation at the start of 2026. Total industry activity has decreased in each month since January 2025 and the latest decline was faster than seen on average over this period. The reduction in output was largely due to…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 05 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

US markets steadied with gains in major indices on March 4, buoyed by a robust ISM Services PMI at 56.1 (highest in over three years) indicating strong services expansion despite Middle East tensions from US-Iran conflict that spiked oil and pressured stocks overnight; oil prices moderated, supporting the rebound while lifting Treasury yields and the dollar, with equities most responsive to both data beats and de-escalation hopes.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Volatile open driven by lingering Middle‑East‑linked oil‑price and inflation concerns, ongoing repricing of global bonds, and the start of China’s National People’s…

US Stock Indices Bounce Back on Peace Hopes – Nasdaq up 1.3%

US equity markets advanced solidly, brushing aside ongoing concerns surrounding the Middle East conflict after reports suggested Iran may be prepared to reopen negotiations with the United States. The improvement in sentiment saw the Dow rise 0.49% to close at 48,739, while the S&P 500 gained 0.78% to finish at 6,869. Technology stocks outperformed, lifting the Nasdaq 1.29% to 22,807. In currency markets, the DXY eased 0.27% to 98.80, surrendering some of its recent strength as risk appetite improved. US Treasury yields continued to push higher after stronger US data, with the 2-year yield rising 3.9 basis points to 3.548% and the 10-year yield climbing 3.6 basis points to…

Sky News Arabia reported that Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said "Iran is ready to abandon its nuclear program on condition that the United States presents a satisfactory alternative offer".

Yesterday, we got the news that Iran has been secretly contacting the US to reach a deal and end the conflict, although Iran dismissed those reports as fake news.

These are clear signs of de-escalation, and we might just need the US or Israel saying that they reached their objectives to see the markets cheering.

• Prior 44.7

More to come..

The main issue that market players are struggling to grasp right now is the relative uncertainty with regards to the duration of the US-Iran conflict. That mainly affects the energy security in the region, especially with regards to the Strait of Hormuz and threats to other oil and gas facilities in Gulf nations. In turn, that plays to the broader market mood such as risk sentiment and inflation fears.

From the early reaction, one can argue that we're not quite seeing a lot of fear priced in just yet. The baseline seems to be the case that Iran will slowly be incapacitated to the point where they won't be able to stir up much of a ruckus and normal operations resume eventually. But with each passing day that the status quo remains, markets…

• China five-year plan calls for more proactive fiscal policy
• China to continue 'moderately loose' monetary policy
• Iran denies that messages were sent to the US about negotiations
• China floats some tax changes
• A federal trade-court judge ordered a swift repayment of tariffs. Why it matters
• Australian January goods trade balance +2.631B vs +3.90B expected

Markets:

• Korean Kospi +8.6%
• Nikkei 225 +1.6%
• S&P 500 futures -0.2%
• WTI crude oil up $2.51 to $77.21
• US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 4.11%
• USD leads, AUD lags

Eyes were on Asian stock markets after yesterday's 11% drop in South Korean indices and they didn't disappoint with a 12% pop at the open led by Samsung. However the bids faded after the open and we're down to just +8.6% in astonishing trading for a…

It's only been a little over three trading days but markets are evidently fearful of inflation pressures returning to major economies. Even if not fully reflected in central bank pricing, in which the needle has definitely moved, then at least take caution from the bond market. 10-year Treasury yields are up 16 bps since the end of last week, keeping around 4.11% today.

With oil prices staying underpinned and the Strait of Hormuz under de facto closure, market players will slowly have to factor this short-term spike in price pressures a lot more in the weeks ahead.

It's sort of a repeat of the whole Russia-Ukraine conflict again, only with more uncertainty as to how long the disruption here might be. It could end as soon as tomorrow or…

• Will enhance the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy
• To optimise the structure of fiscal expenditure
• Will keep liquidity ample, improve sustainability of government finances
• To keep exchange rate basically stable, enhance flexibility of the yuan
• Will release the full potential of services consumption
• Will boost effective investment, balance attraction of foreign investment
• To greatly boost self-reliance in science and technology
• Will boost high quality development of real estate
• To promote healthy and stable housing market development
• Will promote high-quality and adequate employment
• To enhance advantages in rare earths, metals, and also use of strategic minerals
• Will encourage internet platforms, AI firms to expand overseas applications
• To…

This was out a few hours ago but it's important context in why oil prices are back near the post-war highs.

Previously on Wednesday, a report said that Iran had reached out the US about negotiations. They were Axios reports saying that Iranians had sent messages over the last few days but that the US didn't respond.

This report from Iran's Tasnim news agency cites an Iranian official who said:

"No ⁠message has been sent ​from Iran to the ​US, nor will any response be given to US messages. Iran's ​armed forces have prepared ​themselves for a long war."

Along those lines, Politico reports that the US has asked intelligence officers to post for 100 days. That's a much longer timeline than the 4-5 weeks that Trump floated but it could just be…