Market News

With all that is happening in the Middle East, let's not forget that there is also an ongoing trade war between the US and the rest of the world. The Supreme Court shooting down Trump's reciprocal tariffs has changed the landscape here dramatically. And that is making for a bit of an awkward setting ahead of Trump's visit to Beijing at the end of this month.

The latest news via Bloomberg is saying that US and China trade negotiators will be scheduling to meet some time in mid-March. That suggests that the Trump-Xi summit will be moving forward despite the situation in the Middle East.

Of note, US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent and China vice premier He Lifeng are reported to meet in Paris at the end of next week. The two are expected to…

The latest update from the US Central Command:

"US forces have destroyed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command and control facilities, Iranian air defense capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and military airfields during sustained operations. We will continue to take decisive action against imminent threats posed by the Iranian regime."

At first read, this should mean that Iran's threats would be severely incapacitated. However, everyone likes to play up their victories in a time of war. So, we'll see in time I guess.

The conflict continues to rage on but barring any further major escalation, markets might already be eager to move on. The social media revolution has created such an echo chamber that the world becomes largely…

The latest update from the US Central Command:

"US forces have destroyed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command and control facilities, Iranian air defense capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and military airfields during sustained operations. We will continue to take decisive action against imminent threats posed by the Iranian regime."

At first read, this should mean that Iran's threats would be severely incapacitated. However, everyone likes to play up their victories in a time of war. So, we'll see in time I guess.

The conflict continues to rage on but barring any further major escalation, markets might already be eager to move on. The social media revolution has created such an echo chamber that the world becomes largely…

The market is trying to suss out what the plan is for Iran.

Yesterday there was an interview with John Bolton that emphasized that Trump is impulsive and likes to improvise. Trump himself also outlined a 4-5 week timeline, which suggests there is a plan.

What's less clear are the goals of the mission, which might be as simple as wrecking Iran's military infrastructure. But what if Iran keeps on firing drones and missiles? What if it continues to threaten or attack its neighbours?

War can always go sideways, much like it has for Russia in Ukraine. So far Iran doesn't appear to have much support for foreign powers so maybe this turns out differently but it's also hard to see any regime change in Iran without changing anything on the ground. It…

• Expected was +5.0% (some at 5.5%)
• Prior was -14.9%
• Private house approvals +1.1% vs +0.4% prior
• Building approvals +8.7% y/y vs +13.3% prior

This is a sharp two-month drop in construction activity but think of it more as a normalization. Australian dwelling approvals were characterised by significant monthly volatility through 2025, driven almost entirely by the multi-unit segment. The headline seasonally adjusted series swung from +12.0% in September to -6.4% in October, then surged 15.2% in November — reaching a near four-year high of 18,406 dwellings — before reversing sharply with a 14.9% decline in December to 15,542 units.

The pattern reflects the lumpy nature of apartment and higher-density project approvals, which can swing 25-35% in a…

• Prior was 2.6%
• Jobs-to-applicants ratio 1.18 vs 1.19 expected
• Prior ratio 1.19

Japan's unemployment rate held at 2.6% for four consecutive months through December, up from 2.4% in June and a cycle low of 2.2% in mid-2024. While 2.6% remains low by international standards, the gradual upward drift represents a notable shift in a labour market that had been tightening steadily since the pandemic and that continued in January with a 2.7% reading.

The jobs-to-applicants ratio reinforces the picture of modest cooling. The December reading edged up to 1.19 from 1.18 in October and November — the lowest level since January 2022. The ratio peaked above 1.30 in late 2023 and has declined steadily as employers grow more cautious amid elevated input…

New Zealand building consents rose 1.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, clawing back some of December's 4.5% decline. The monthly number is fine but the real story here is in the annual figures — and for the first time in a while, there's something constructive to talk about.

In the year ended January 2026, 36,944 new homes were consented, up 9.3% from a year earlier. That's a meaningful turn after two years of relentless declines that took the pipeline from nearly 50,000 consents down to the mid-33,000s. We're not back to boom-era levels but the bleeding has clearly stopped and the recovery is gaining traction.

Multi-unit homes are doing the heavy lifting. Townhouses and flats rose 14% on the year to 16,175 consents while…

• S&P and NASDAQ indices erase war declines and close higher on the day
• Reports of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz is sending oil prices back higher
• Trump; US continues to carry out large scale combat operations in Iran
• Gold’s "Blow-off Top": Geopolitical Spike Meets Technical Resistance
• ISM Manufacturing PMI for February 52.4 versus 51.8 estimate
• S&P Global manufacturing PMI for February 51.7 versus 52.0 estimate
• What are the central bankers talking about as war rages
• US Sec of War Hegseth: Iran cannot have nuclear weapons and takes guts to enforce that
• investingLive European markets wrap: Oil stays bid, dollar firms on US-Iran conflict
• Swiss franc tumbles after SNB warning earlier

Stocks recover as war headlines collide with strong data and…

• Iran refused to cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons
• Regime ballistic missile program was growing rapidly
• Would have soon had missiles capable of reaching America
• Ensuring they cannot obtain nuclear weapon
• Ensuring cannot fund or direct armies outside their borders
• We are ahead of our time projections
• An Iran with nuclear weapons would be intolerable to US
• We projected 4 – 5 weeks but can go longer

Trump, transitions from war to the bit beautiful ballroom ... and goes off the rails.

• Iran refused to cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons
• Regime ballistic missile program was growing rapidly
• Would have soon had missiles capable of reaching America
• Ensuring they cannot obtain nuclear weapon
• Ensuring cannot fund or direct armies outside their borders
• We are ahead of our time projections
• An Iran with nuclear weapons would be intolerable to US
• We projected 4 – 5 weeks but can go longer

Trump, transitions from war to the bit beautiful ballroom ... and goes off the rails.

• Prior month 52.6
• ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.4 vs 51.8 estimate

DETAILS:

• Manufacturing PMI®: 52.4 vs 52.6 last month

• New Orders: 55.8 vs 57.1 last month

• Production: 53.5 vs 55.9 last month

• Employment: 48.8 vs 48.1 last month

• Supplier Deliveries: 55.1 vs 54.4 last month

• Inventories: 48.8 vs 47.6 last month

• Customers’ Inventories: 38.8 vs 38.7 last month

• Prices Paid: 70.5 vs 59.0 last month

• Backlog of Orders: 56.6 vs 51.6 last month

• New Export Orders: 50.3 vs 50.2 last month

• Imports: 54.9 vs 50.0 last month

Summary:

• 7 components were above the 50 expansion level, signaling growth:

  • Manufacturing PMI®

  • New Orders

  • Production

  • Supplier Deliveries

  • Prices

  • Backlog of Orders

  • Imports

• 3 components were below 50, indicating contraction:

  • Employment

  • Inventories

  • Customers’ Inventories

• <p data-start="455"…

• Prior month 51.2 revise from 52.4
• S&P Global manufacturing PMI 51.6 versus 51.2 expected