Market News

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast |02 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

U.S. markets reacted negatively to mixed labor data showing rising jobless claims and tariff hikes on South Korea, pressuring major indexes like the Dow and Nasdaq, while oil surged on Iran tensions and the dollar weakened to multi-year lows, highlighting trade policy and geopolitics as dominant drivers over macro releases.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders face a packed Monday with key manufacturing PMIs across the region and escalating geopolitical risks driving commodities. Gold has surged to around $5,300 per ounce amid US-Iran tensions, boosting safe-haven demand, while oil prices are poised to climb above $90 on…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast |02 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

U.S. markets reacted negatively to mixed labor data showing rising jobless claims and tariff hikes on South Korea, pressuring major indexes like the Dow and Nasdaq, while oil surged on Iran tensions and the dollar weakened to multi-year lows, highlighting trade policy and geopolitics as dominant drivers over macro releases.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders face a packed Monday with key manufacturing PMIs across the region and escalating geopolitical risks driving commodities. Gold has surged to around $5,300 per ounce amid US-Iran tensions, boosting safe-haven demand, while oil prices are poised to climb above $90 on…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 02 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Today’s Asia session was dominated by US-Iran escalation, driving oil up 13%+ and gold higher, while equities like Nikkei (-1.5%) and Hang Seng (-2.5%) fell on risk aversion; Japan’s strong PMI (53.0) provided a positive counter-note for JPY, setting a volatile tone ahead of more PMIs.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders face a pivotal day with China’s Manufacturing PMI and especially the US ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 EST), poised to dictate USD strength and risk sentiment, following January’s rebound to expansionary levels above 50. Markets open on a sour note, Dow futures plunging amid US-Iran escalations spiking…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 02 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Today’s Asia session was dominated by US-Iran escalation, driving oil up 13%+ and gold higher, while equities like Nikkei (-1.5%) and Hang Seng (-2.5%) fell on risk aversion; Japan’s strong PMI (53.0) provided a positive counter-note for JPY, setting a volatile tone ahead of more PMIs.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders face a pivotal day with China’s Manufacturing PMI and especially the US ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 EST), poised to dictate USD strength and risk sentiment, following January’s rebound to expansionary levels above 50. Markets open on a sour note, Dow futures plunging amid US-Iran escalations spiking…

A Reuters source is reporting that Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery, which is the largest oil refinery in the Middle East, was hit by a drone attack and forced to shut down as a precautionary measure. The source did note that the "situation is under control" though.

However, the strike continues to highlight the kind of disruption that is hitting the oil market at the open. It's not just all about the Strait of Hormuz. There's tension and fears all over the region and oil refineries and tankers everywhere have to be mindful about the situation.

I would say it still isn't clear what is Iran's playbook in all of this. You would expect them to hit back at countries with US presence but they seem to be just trying to create a disruption…

Markets Under Pressure as Middle East Conflict Escalates – Dow down 1%
Traders are expecting a very busy start to the week today after hostilities increased dramatically over the weekend in the Middle East. US markets closed out last week on the back foot, and traders are expecting more pressure across financial products in the days ahead. The Dow declined 1.05% to finish at 48,977, while the S&P 500 fell 0.43% to 6,878, and the Nasdaq underperformed, shedding 0.92% to close at 22,668. Fixed income markets saw strong demand, with Treasury yields moving sharply lower. The US 2-year yield fell 5.3 basis points to 3.375%, while the benchmark 10-year yield declined 6.7 basis points to 3.937%, slipping back below the 4% threshold as investors…

• Prior +0.3%

UK house prices were seen steady, growing slightly again in February. That brings the average price of a dwelling in the UK to £273,176. The annual house price growth keeps unchanged as in January at +1.0%. Nationwide notes that:

"This reinforces the view of a modest recovery after a dip at the end of 2025, most likely reflecting uncertainty around potential property tax changes ahead of the Budget. Nevertheless, the number of mortgages approved for house purchase remain close to the levels prevailing before the pandemic...

Housing market activity is likely to recover in the coming quarters, especially if the improving affordability trend seen last year is maintained as expected."

• Prior +0.1%; revised to +1.2%

The drop here needs to be put into context a little more, as it comes after a major bump up in the December 2025 retail sales jump. That figure was seen revised from +0.1% to +1.2% on the month. So, the miss on estimates in the headline isn't as bad as what it might imply at first glance.

Looking at the details, the decline in January 2026 stems mostly from a fall in the non-food retail sector. Sales there fell by 1.7% on the month while food store sales were unchanged in real terms for the first month of the year.

There's plenty to digest as we get the new week/month underway in trading today. The main story is that the US, alongside Israel, finally decided to launch military attacks against Iran. Reports are saying that the strikes were supposed to be carried out last week but were delayed due to operational and intelligence reasons.

Nonetheless, the escalation in military conflict is the key thing driving markets with Iran also fighting back. What is notable is that Iran is not only hitting back at US-based targets but is stirring up conflict in other places in the Middle East too.

Oil prices have surged higher on the weekend developments, with WTI crude opening with a gap up to above $75 before settling back down now to be around $71 as the…

• BOJ's Himino: GDP is tracking okay
• Trump floats lifting sanctions against a new Iranian regime
• Bolton warns Trump may not have thought past the trigger on Iran
• OPEC+ hiked oil production by 206,000 bpd in Sunday's meeting
• Trump: We have hit hundreds of targets

Markets:

• WTI crude oil up $3.74 to $5.6%
• US 10-year yields up 1.7 bps to 3.98%
• Gold up $80 to $5355
• S&P 500 futures down 0.7%
• USD leads, GBP lags

The whole market was holding its breath as oil futures opened to start the week and the initial price action was explosive with WTI hitting $75.33 and brent rising to $82.37. Those levels didn't last though as both stayed at the peaks for mere seconds and are now trading $5 from the peaks. Both are still around 5.5% higher though in a significant…

When the market hears bombs, it buys bonds.

Or at least that's usually the case. This time, the market is weighing whether the war in Iran is inflationary due to the 4.5% rise in oil prices so far. Notably, the gains in the oil market have been halved since the open but yields are at the highs of the day.

US 10-year yields are up 1.3 bps to 3.975% after falling below the big figure late last week. You could argue there is some profit taking ongoing on a "sell the fact" trade but it's still surprising to see yields higher.

Looking at the chart, yields are trying to bounce off the autumn lows.

The worry I have is that Iran is better-equipped to fight back than expected. There is also the semblance of a surprise strategy unfolding:

• They are…