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On Monday evening, a commander from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps declared that the Strait of Hormuz was “closed” and warned that any vessel attempting to pass through would be attacked. As expected, on Tuesday oil, gas, and gold prices all jumped higher, while shipping traffic in the region only worsened.

Yet there’s still no sign of panic, why?

One of the main reasons is that the market does not seem to believe that Iran has either the incentive or the capacity to impose a total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

First, closing such an important energy route would not really benefit Iran or its key partners, such as India and China. Second, from a military standpoint, Tehran likely lacks the resources necessary to maintain a total…

• Prior +1.0%
• HICP +1.6% vs +1.1% y/y expected
• Prior +1.0%

Slight delay in the release by the source. That's a sharp increase in price pressures and one that is also reflected in core prices. Of note, core annual inflation shows an increase from 1.7% in January to 2.4% in February. That as services inflation accelerated on the month from 2.5% previously to 3.6% last month.

The overall Eurozone CPI estimates here are what will matter more for markets, and they're also running hotter than expected. It's a bit untimely for the ECB amid the US-Iran conflict. That now shifts the narrative away from rate cuts and opens the door in asking the question of perhaps the central bank needing to think about rate hikes instead.

• Prior +1.7%
• Core CPI +2.4% vs +2.2% y/y expected
• Prior +2.2%

Well, this sort of reading won't do well to ease the nerves amid the US-Iran situation. Amid fears of a temporary spike in inflation pressures, market players have even started to weigh up a rate hike by the ECB before the end of this year. Traders priced that at a probability of around 25% before the inflation numbers.

And with price pressures keeping more stubborn now, the balance of the scales looks to have firmly shifted to the other side. That being markets are instead having to anticipate when the ECB will have to raise interest rates instead of reducing them next.

It will be interesting to see what policymakers make of the latest data alongside the higher energy price…

There was a bit of profit-taking at the onset yesterday but given time to digest the Middle East situation, we're starting to see oil prices surge higher again today. The jump on the day now sees prices move back up to contest the highs from the opening gap higher yesterday. WTI crude oil is now up well over 5% and is knocking on the door of the $75 level once more:

In times like these, technical levels don't work too well as headline risks and market emotions take over trading sentiment. Still, the technical levels will factor into any potential slowdown in the momentum amid profit-taking triggers and perhaps acting as psychological barriers.

The talk of the town is that if the US-Iran conflict is prolonged and the Strait of Hormuz remains…

Middle East Conflict Rocks Markets – Brent Crude up 7%

Global markets experienced elevated volatility overnight as tensions in the Middle East continued to intensify, driving sharp intraday price swings across asset classes. Despite the unstable backdrop, US equity markets proved relatively resilient by the close. The Dow Jones slipped just 0.15% to finish at 48,904, the S&P 500 edged up 0.04% to 6,881, and the Nasdaq outperformed modestly, gaining 0.36% to close at 22,748. Currency markets delivered less conventional risk-off dynamics. Rather than benefiting from safe-haven demand, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc weakened, while the US dollar did rally as expected, with the DXY up 0.96% to 98.59. Fixed income markets came under…

Middle East Conflict Rocks Markets – Brent Crude up 7%

Global markets experienced elevated volatility overnight as tensions in the Middle East continued to intensify, driving sharp intraday price swings across asset classes. Despite the unstable backdrop, US equity markets proved relatively resilient by the close. The Dow Jones slipped just 0.15% to finish at 48,904, the S&P 500 edged up 0.04% to 6,881, and the Nasdaq outperformed modestly, gaining 0.36% to close at 22,748. Currency markets delivered less conventional risk-off dynamics. Rather than benefiting from safe-haven demand, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc weakened, while the US dollar did rally as expected, with the DXY up 0.96% to 98.59. Fixed income markets came under…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 03 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

The main driver was the continued escalation of Middle‑East tensions involving Iran, which pushed oil prices notably higher and reinforced a risk‑off tone in equities while boosting traditional safe‑haven assets. Japanese 10‑year yields rose slightly as the conflict stoked inflation‑risk concerns, and the dollar edged up versus a broad basket of Asian currencies, including the Korean won and Indian rupee, which saw the heaviest FX losses on the session.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

As European and U.S. trading sessions commence, traders face a risk-off environment fueled by Middle East conflicts boosting oil above…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast |03 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

U.S. markets reacted defensively overnight to resilient ISM Manufacturing data highlighting inflation risks (prices at 70.5) combined with U.S.-Iran conflict escalation, causing stock index futures to drop over 1%, oil to spike 8-13% on supply fears, and gold/USD to rally as safe havens, amplifying volatility ahead of the Monday open.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders face a volatile open amid escalating US-Iran conflict, driving oil prices toward $80 per barrel and boosting safe-haven gold, with regional equities like Tokyo’s Nikkei already down sharply. Key data includes the US ISM Manufacturing PMI releasing early…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 2.37%, Shanghai Composite down 0.07%, Hang Seng down 0.39% ASX down 1.41%
• Commodities : Gold at $5,377.01 (1.24%) Silver at $90.275 (1.65%), Brent Oil at $79.37 (2.06%), WTI Oil at $72.36 (1.64%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.045, UK 10-year yield at 4.3710, Germany 10-year yield at 2.7081

• (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI  52.4  to 51.7  expected

Asian stock markets are trading mostly lower on Tuesday, tracking mixed cues from Wall Street and rising concerns over the escalating Middle East conflict. While early losses reflected caution, some investors used the dip to accumulate stocks at lower levels. Crude oil prices have surged…

With all that is happening in the Middle East, let's not forget that there is also an ongoing trade war between the US and the rest of the world. The Supreme Court shooting down Trump's reciprocal tariffs has changed the landscape here dramatically. And that is making for a bit of an awkward setting ahead of Trump's visit to Beijing at the end of this month.

The latest news via Bloomberg is saying that US and China trade negotiators will be scheduling to meet some time in mid-March. That suggests that the Trump-Xi summit will be moving forward despite the situation in the Middle East.

Of note, US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent and China vice premier He Lifeng are reported to meet in Paris at the end of next week. The two are expected to…