Market News

• Prior month 6.946 million revised up to 7.240 million
• JOLTs job openings for February 6.882M vs 6.918M estimate
• Hires 4.849M vs 5.347M last month
• Separations 4.971M versus 5.144M last month
• Quits 2.974M vs 3.137M last month
• Layoffs and discharges 1.721M vs 1.660M last month.

The JOLTs job openings fell sharply from 7.240M last month to 6.882M this month. Prior month was revised higher from 6.946M previously reported. Lower job openings is indicative of a weakening labor picture.

Here are the February 2026 (p) changes for the major categories:

• Total: -358
• Total private: -307

Industry Breakdown (thousands) showed that all industries show declines with the exception of professional business services:

• Mining and logging: -12K
• Construction: -28K
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• Prior was 91.2 prior

Details:

• Present situation
• Expectations
• Jobs plentiful
• Jobs hard to get

US consumer confidence opened 2026 on shaky ground. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index plunged 9.7 points in January to 84.5, its lowest reading since May 2014 and well below the 91.1 level economists had forecast. The decline reflected growing anxiety over geopolitical tensions, persistent affordability pressures, and ongoing trade policy uncertainty. All five components of the index deteriorated, with the Present Situation Index dropping to 113.7 and the Expectations Index falling to 65.1 — well below the 80 threshold that has historically signaled recession risk.

February brought a modest rebound, with the headline index rising 2.2…

• Prior 1.4%
• House price M/M +0.2% vs +0.3% expected
• Prior +0.5%

House price data from the FHFA:

• Prices +1.6% y/y vs +1.8% prior (revised to +1.9%)
• Prices +0.1% m/m vs +0.1% prior

The US housing market remains weak and on continuing deceleration. This is January data, so things might have deteriorated much further after the US-Iran war broke out. Mortgage rates have risen substantially due to inflation fears and a much less dovish Fed.

What is the Case-Shiller Index:

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index is the leading measure of U.S. residential real estate prices. It tracks the changes in the value of residential real estate by monitoring the purchase price of the same single-family homes over time.

Developed in the 1980s by economists Karl Case and…

• Prior was +0.2%
• Q4 GDP was -0.6%
• Goods-producing industries expanded by 0.2% for the second month in a row
• Services-producing industries were essentially unchanged in January
• 9 of the 20 industrial sectors recorded growth in January.

Canada's economy closed out 2025 on shaky ground, and today's January monthly GDP release arrives at a moment of heightened uncertainty. Real GDP grew just 1.7% for the full year of 2025, the slowest annual pace since the pandemic-driven contraction of 2020, with lower exports to the United States acting as the primary drag. The fourth quarter proved particularly disappointing: output contracted 0.6% on an annualized basis, missing both the Bank of Canada's projection for a flat reading and the consensus call for…

Trump on Truth Social:

All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil! President DJT

Trump is basically confirming the WSJ report released in the APAC session saying that he would be open to end the war with Iran without the Strait of Hormuz opening…

• FX market still has not grasped full impact of energy shock - Goldman Sachs
• EURUSD keeps the bearish bias intact amid the US-Iran war; Focus stays on negotiations
• European stocks keep the calm today but set to cap one of the worst months in recent years
• Eurozone headline inflation picks up in March as energy prices surge on Middle East war
• ECB's Muller: Current baseline projection could be already too optimistic
• The Nasdaq bounces as Trump is reportedly open to end the war without Hormuz condition
• Germany March unemployment change 0k vs 2k expected
• Three Chinese ships confirmed to have passed through Strait of Hormuz
• Gold consolidates awaiting potential US-Iran deal; Trump's next move crucial
• France March preliminary CPI +1.7% vs +1.6% y/y expected
• <a…

The preliminary CPI report for March sees headline annual inflation come in at 2.5%, just a touch softer than the 2.6% estimate. Still, it represents a notable bump to the 1.9% reading in February last month. The main cause for the jump is higher energy prices, as a result of the US-Iran conflict. Of note, energy prices were seen 4.9% higher than it was a year ago.

Other than that, food prices were seen up 2.4% compared to the same month one year ago. Meanwhile, services inflation was seen at 3.2% so that continues to remain a key sticking point for the ECB.

When looking at core prices though, the report was less worrying - at least for now. Core annual inflation was seen at 2.3%, missing slightly on estimates of 2.4%. That is also down a…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 1.14%, Shanghai Composite down 0.3% Hang Seng down 0.52% ASX up 0.63%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,584.51 (0.20%) Silver at $72.145 (2.50%), Brent Oil at $107.71 (0.26%), WTI Oil at $103.57 (0.92%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.324, UK 10-year yield at 4.9340, Germany 10-year yield at 3.039

• (GBP) M4 Money Supply m/m  0.6%  to 0.1%  expected

Asia-Pacific markets swung sharply on Tuesday as oil prices reversed earlier gains after reports suggested President Donald Trump was seeking to avoid a prolonged Middle East conflict. Investors reacted quickly to signals that Washington may scale back military objectives, easing immediate supply…

The ministry confirms that three Chinese ships have recently sailed through the Strait of Hormuz, adding that "we would like to express our gratitude for the assistance provided by all parties concerned". They didn't go so far to name which ships they are referring to but recent reports suggest that it is likely they are vessels tied to China's state-run COSCO Shipping.

For some context, these same ships were turned back on Friday last week as Iran continues to keep a firm stranglehold of control over the Strait of Hormuz. Two ships are said to be owned by COSCO Shipping with the other believed to be Hong Kong-owned Lotus Rising. Those were the three ships turned back at the end of last week and are believed to be allowed passage this time…

• Prior 1k
• Unemployment rate 6.3% vs 6.3% expected
• Prior 6.3%

German unemployment remains unchanged in March with the jobless rate keeping steady on the month as well. The jobless figure overall remains the same as it was in February at 2.977 million. Well, this at least reaffirms the labour market has been holding up in recent months after having softened modestly in the first half of last year especially.

The labour office notes that: "As usual, the spring upturn in the labour market begins in March, however, without any significant momentum this year."

IC Markets – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 31 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. session overnight saw no fresh macro data but intense focus on the escalating U.S.-Iran war, pushing oil past $115/barrel amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and reigniting inflation via prior 1.3% import price surges, driving Treasury yields to 4.44%+ and equities deeper into corrections (Nasdaq/Dow down >10% from peaks); crude oil, stocks, and bonds bore the brunt, while gold stabilized post-plunge and USD gained on Fed hawkishness.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Escalating Iran‑Gulf tensions, which are underpinning oil volatility and safe‑haven demand, while keeping a close eye on USD/JPY near intervention‑watch levels and the…