Market News

Headlines:

• No guidance from Jackson Hole?
• USD/JPY extends gains as focus turns to Fed Chair Warsh's speech
• Gold stays locked in ahead of Warsh's Jackson Hole speech
• How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?
• France Q2 final GDP +0.0% vs +0.2% q/q prelim
• France August preliminary CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y expected
• Spain August preliminary CPI +4.3% vs +4.2% y/y expected
• German unemployment rises a little less than expected in August
• Month-end fixing to be mildly supportive of the dollar - BofA
• Some slight dollar selling likely to be the case for this month-end - Credit Agricole

Markets:

• USD little changed
• Gold flat at $4,599
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures flat
• WTI crude oil up 0.4% to $83.22
• US 10-year yields up 1.2 bps…

The precious metal isn't up to much so far today, with traders largely waiting on Fed chair Warsh's appearance in Jackson Hole later. We're seeing price mostly stick around the $4,600 mark today, much like it has the day before. And so the same backdrop remains: Gold hopes to keep early week momentum ahead of Warsh showdown

Similar to yesterday, near-term price action continues to see gold hold in between its key hourly moving averages.

"The short-term chart is more mixed as buyers are now doing battle around the 100-hour moving average (red line). They have to keep above that to maintain a more bullish near-term bias. However, there is some fallback potential to around $4,580-00 for now with dip buyers stepping in overnight."

With all eyes…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 28 August 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Japan’s hotter Tokyo inflation strengthened the case for another BOJ rate hike and supported the yen, while Australia’s unexpectedly sharp 3.6% fall in business investment weighed on the AUD. China’s industrial profits remained strong overall but showed signs of slowing momentum. Meanwhile, traders remained cautious ahead of Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, keeping the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields supported and creating downside pressure for gold.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

European traders will begin with Eurozone sentiment data and recent signs of improving German consumer confidence, while Canadian GDP could create…

US Tech Stocks Higher on AI Optimism –Nasdaq up 1.6%

US stocks pushed higher in trading yesterday as renewed optimism around artificial intelligence helped drive another strong session for technology stocks. Nvidia remained at the centre of attention, with its earnings outlook broadly meeting the market’s elevated expectations. The Nasdaq led the gains, rising 1.57% to close at 26,541, while the S&P 500 added 0.72% to finish at 7,730. The Dow Jones also moved higher, gaining 0.20% to 53,569.

Treasury yields pushed higher ahead of today’s keynote speech from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium, with markets looking for further guidance on the outlook for interest rates. The 2-year yield rose 2.3 basis points to…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 28 August 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Sticky July PCE inflation, stronger-than-expected durable-goods orders, and resilient consumer spending reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to keep rates higher for longer, supporting the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields while weighing on gold and rate-sensitive assets. At the same time, Nvidia’s exceptionally strong earnings and bullish forward guidance reignited the AI/technology trade, lifting Nvidia and supporting Nasdaq futures into the Asian session.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should focus primarily on China’s weaker economic data, Japan’s disappointing GDP, oil’s reaction to the Iran/Hormuz situation,…

• August final consumer confidence -15.5 vs -15.5 prelim
• Prior -15.9
• August economic confidence 98.4 vs 97.5 expected
• Prior 96.9; revised to 97.1
• August industrial confidence -5.3 vs -5.2 expected
• Prior -6.1
• August services confidence 5.8 vs 4.9 expected
• Prior 4.7; revised to 5.1

The recovery continues for euro area economic sentiment at the tail end of the summer, bolstered by better confidence levels in both manufacturing and services. That is some good news at least despite it still being a testing time for major economies in the region, that especially in the battle against inflation.

In that lieu, there is a bit of a warning indicator from the latest price data accompanying the survey report here. Of note, consumer inflation expectations have…

●         Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.72%, Shanghai Composite up 0.08% Hang Seng up 0.33% ASX up 0.43%

●        Commodities : Gold at $4,634.04 (-0.64%) Silver at $68.847 (-0.85%), Brent Oil at 88.35 (-0.19%), WTI Oil at 83.26 (-0.32%)

●        Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.686, UK 10-year yield at 5.0326, Germany 10-year yield at 3.2493

●        (USD)      Unemployment Claims

  203K to 208K  expected

U.S. stock futures were largely unchanged early Friday as investors digested corporate earnings and awaited Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s closely watched speech at the central bank’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

S&P 500 futures were flat, while…

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US dollar has been mixed in the last couple of days, with traders likely taking profits and hedging ahead of today’s Fed Chair Warsh speech at Jackson Hole. He’s not expected to give forward guidance, but what traders will be more focused on is whether he leans against the easing in financial conditions following the Treasury buyback announcement and Bessent’s “verbal” intervention to suppress long-term yields

If he doesn’t, the US dollar will likely come under renewed pressure from further easing in financial conditions and the dovish repricing in near-term interest rate expectations. On the other hand, if he pushes back saying things like "recent…

The main event for markets today will come from Jackson Hole later, with all eyes on Fed chair Warsh's keynote speech.

He will be put under the microscope in needing to provide more clarity on how the Fed would look to deal with inflation pressures, that especially if things continue down this path. Last month, he did suggest that he wanted markets to take the lead but the US Treasury intervention has definitely made things more complicated.

With long-term bonds being pressured, Warsh will be under heavy scrutiny in communicating how the Fed views that. And if not, what the Fed response will be on the Treasury's intervention and if said action will interfere with the central bank's policy path and/or monetary policy transmission.

From…

• Germany August unemployment change 4k vs 5k expected
• Prior 6k
• Germany August unemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.4% expected
• Prior 6.4%

More to come..

• Prior +3.6%
• HICP +4.5% vs +4.6% y/y expected
• Prior +3.9%
• Core CPI Y/Y +2.9% vs +3.0% prior

Spain's annual inflation rate accelerated sharply in August, with rising fuel costs pushing headline inflation to its highest level in more than a year. The main factor behind the acceleration was the fuel and lubricants component, where prices increased compared with declines recorded in August 2025. The comparison with last year's weakness in energy prices generated a significant upward base effect, making fuel costs the largest contributor to the rise in headline inflation.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages also added to inflationary pressures. Although prices in this category declined during the month, the decrease was smaller than that seen in the…