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Singapore’s February exports rose 4.0% y/y, missing expectations as electronics gains were partly offset by weaker non-electronics shipments.

Summary:

• Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 4.0% year-on-year in February, below expectations for a 5.5% increase in a Reuters poll.

• Export growth was driven by electronics shipments, particularly integrated circuits and disk media products.

• Non-electronics exports declined, limiting the overall expansion in shipments.

• Exports to South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong increased, while shipments to Indonesia and the United States fell.

• The data comes as U.S. authorities launch trade investigations into several partners, including Singapore, citing persistent trade surpluses.

• Singapore’s Trade…

New Zealand food prices -0.1 percent in February

• prior +2.5%

For the y/y, +4.5%

Data from Statistics New Zealand.

Food prices make up nearly 19 percent of the consumer price index.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand food prices -0.1 percent in February

• prior +2.5%

For the y/y, +4.5%

Data from Statistics New Zealand.

Food prices make up nearly 19 percent of the consumer price index.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump on his visit to China to see Xi:

"I'd love to go, but I have to be here because of the war."

"We asked to delay it a month."

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump on his visit to China to see Xi:

"I'd love to go, but I have to be here because of the war."

"We asked to delay it a month."

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• US and Iran have been in direct contact in recent days - report
• NVDA stock chops: Huang sees "at least $1 trillion" in revenue visibility through 2027
• Oil settles near the lows of the day, falling $5
• One of the greatest oil traders of all-time thinks the Treasury got involved in the market
• Trump: Not happy with the UK.
• European indices off to a positive start for the week
• Trump: Continued in full force over the past few days
• What are the TACO trades?
• US March NAHB housing market index 38 vs 37 expected
• US February industrial production vs +0.2% expected
• March Empire Fed manufacturing survey index -0.20 versus 3.90 estimate
• Canada February CPI +1.8% vs +1.9% expected
• investingLive European markets wrap: Oil off early highs, risk mood picks up for now
• <a…

Axios reports:

A direct communications channel between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been reactivated in recent days, according to a U.S. official and a source with knowledge.

Trump today said they weren't talking about a deal but it would make sense that both sides would at least want to establish some channels.

The Axios report says it's not clear how substantive the messages passed were but they're the first known communication.

The foreign min has repeatedly tweeted throughout the war.

Yesterday he wrote:

Iran has neither sought a truce nor talks. Such claims are delusional. Our Powerful Armed Forces will keep firing until POTUS realizes that illegal war he's imposing on both Americans and…

• On the Strait of Hormuz, potential coalition, Rubio will announce a countries.
• Spoke to Macron on Sunday. Rates France effort an 8 on a scale of 10.
• Very surprised with the UK
• Was not happy with the UK. I think they will be involved.
• Iran wants to make a deal.
• On Iran, I don't know if they are ready yet.
• Ship owners don't want to take a chance driving through the Strait
• We are pounding the coast hard
• We don't know if the Supreme Leader is dead or not
• We don't know if they've set any mines
• We don't know their leaders
• I don't know if they're ready yet
• They're negotiating
• I think we're going to get Strait going very soon
• We do have other nations coming in
• They weren't supposed to go after all these other countries, we were shocked
• When this is over oil…

• Continued in full force of the past few days
• USS struck more than 7000 targets
• Have hit mostly commercial and military targets.
• Have 3 missile and drone manufacturing sites today.
• Have destroyed 30 mine laying ships
• Not sure if any mines have been dropped in.
• Encourage other nations to come and help the US
• Numerous countries have told me they are on the way.
• Some nations enthusiastic, some aren't.
• Expect very few shots retaken, Iran has very few shots left
• We are double the output by 2 times of any country.
• Not sure countries want me to say if they are helping

FYI Top Producers (barrels/day)

• United States — ~13–14M bbl/day (record highs driven by Permian Basin shale)
• Saudi Arabia — ~9.6M bbl/day
• Russia — ~10.75M bbl/day (redirecting exports to India…

Trading is 90% preparation and 10% execution so let's spend some time preparing for an end to war. The market is clearly optimistic today but that could just be an unwind of fears of weekend escalation. There are so many moving parts here and iterations of how it could end but let's make one simple assumption: The free flow of oil through Hormuz is re-established. Whether that's a Trump TACO or Iran capitulation is largely irrelevant in terms of most market moves.

So let's say the oil gets moving again and the headline hits. What are the trades you want to think about?

1) Short oil

This is the obvious one and it's the big one. It's the torque on any kind of post-war trade and the clearest expression of war trades. May WTI is down $4.23 to…

Trading is 90% preparation and 10% execution so let's spend some time preparing for an end to war. The market is clearly optimistic today but that could just be an unwind of fears of weekend escalation. There are so many moving parts here and iterations of how it could end but let's make one simple assumption: The free flow of oil through Hormuz is re-established. Whether that's a Trump TACO or Iran capitulation is largely irrelevant in terms of most market moves.

So let's say the oil gets moving again and the headline hits. What are the trades you want to think about?

1) Short oil

This is the obvious one and it's the big one. It's the torque on any kind of post-war trade and the clearest expression of war trades. May WTI is down $4.23 to…

• Prior was 36

• Current single-family home sales 42 vs 41 prior
• Prospective buyers 25 vs 22 prior
• Home sales expectations over the next six months 49 vs 46 prior

The headline number has been sliding — the index fell to 36 in February, down from 37 in January, which itself dropped from 39 in December. That's now 22 consecutive months below the 50 line that separates positive from negative builder sentiment, and it came in below the consensus forecast of 38.

I'm surprised to see improvement in this survey given higher oil prices and borrowing costs.

The main culprit is affordability. High price-to-income ratios, elevated land and construction costs, and mortgage rates that — while improving — remain well above pandemic-era levels are all weighing on…