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A Venezuelan exit would carry limited immediate supply implications given the country currently sits outside OPEC's production quotas following years of steep output decline. The more significant risk for markets is reputational and structural: any departure would renew questions about the cohesion of the Saudi-led group and its capacity to manage prices effectively. A deeper US-Venezuela energy relationship aimed at expanding Venezuelan output over time would add a further source of potential supply growth to a market already facing forecasts of a widening surplus in coming years.

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Earlier:

• Iran says it is preparing list of conditions for reopening Strait of Hormuz
• Oil catch up post: Snaps losing streak as Trump rules out reviving Iran…

The near flat August reading gives the RBNZ little fresh signal either way ahead of its September 2 Monetary Policy Statement, where economists are broadly split between a hold and a further 25 basis point hike to 2.75%. Household inflation expectations held at 4.7%, still elevated relative to target and unlikely on its own to sway the Committee. The softer current conditions index points to lingering strain from earlier oil price shocks, even as the five year outlook hit its best level since May 2021, suggesting households see current pressures as temporary rather than structural.

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New Zealand households are still cautious but increasingly optimistic about the years ahead, a steadier backdrop for the RBNZ as it weighs a hold or hike on…

The pause signals growing internal caution at Nvidia about how far it can go in using its balance sheet and market position to engineer demand for its own chips. Coming so soon after the company also scaled back a proposed financial backstop for OpenAI's Ohio data centre project, this reinforces a pattern of Nvidia stepping back from arrangements that could expose it to antitrust scrutiny or investor concern over concentrated liability. With $36 billion already committed under the programme's six year agreements, any prolonged pause or restructuring could affect how markets price the durability of Nvidia's newer, non-hardware revenue streams, even as the company frames this as normal evolution of a still-developing initiative.

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Yesterday:

• <a href="https://investinglive.com/education/what-nvidia-earnings-teach-investors-about-p-e-peg-margins-and-growth" target="_blank"…

The comments add a layer of specificity to the Iran-Oman track without resolving the broader uncertainty markets have been pricing around Hormuz. Confirmation that Iran and Oman have settled on a shipping corridor, split between each country's territorial waters, supports the narrative of incremental progress that has weighed on crude this week. However, Rezaei's insistence that full use of a central channel depends on a separate memorandum with Washington, and that ending the regional war is among Iran's conditions, keeps a meaningful risk premium in place. Traders are likely to continue treating the Oman agreement as a technical, partial step rather than a signal that normal Hormuz traffic volumes are imminent, particularly given the…

Thursday's remarks did little to resolve the market's core uncertainty heading into Friday, namely whether the Fed leans toward a September hike or continues to hold. Hammack's (and more here) explicit call to act sits at odds with Schmid's reluctance to commit and Goolsbee's more balanced, watchful tone, while Collins added a note of relative reassurance by attributing part of the hot headline print to technical factors rather than genuine demand pressure. Futures markets continued to lean against a September move while pricing strong odds of a hike by year end, a split that mirrors the divide among the officials themselves. With Warsh known for withholding forward guidance, this scattershot of pre-speech commentary may end up carrying…

Brent and WTI both broke a three-session losing run, with traders scaling back bets on an imminent diplomatic breakthrough that would ease flows out of the Gulf. The move came after reporting that the Trump administration has repeatedly told mediators it has no interest in reverting to the terms of the June memorandum with Iran, pushing the market to price in a longer stretch of restricted Hormuz traffic rather than a near-term resolution. Fresh Iranian threats toward vessels breaching its transit rules, and warnings of retaliation against US-linked shipping and energy interests, added a further layer of risk premium. Diplomatic efforts continue on the margins, including a visit from Qatar's prime minister to Tehran, but the market…

Tokyo area inflation the focus today. Meanwhile, expectations of a Bank of Japan September rate hike are firming up:

• BOJ's Himino signals more hikes, flags growing upside inflation risk
• BOJ policymaker Himino says won't comment on market expectations on rate hike

Where July's Tokyo print landed

Tokyo's July inflation data set the tone for what's expected today. Core CPI (ex fresh food) accelerated to 1.90% in July from 1.60% in June, marking a six-month high and beating expectations. The move extended a run of acceleration, with data showing core consumer prices up 1.9% year-on-year in July 2026, following a 1.6% rise the previous month and exceeding expectations of 1.7%, the second straight month of acceleration and the fastest pace since…

The major US stock indices closed higher, led by the Nasdaq, as strong earnings from Nvidia, Salesforce and CrowdStrike reignited enthusiasm for the AI and technology trades.

The closing levels show:

• Dow industrial average rose 104.99 points, or 0.20%, to 53,574.35
• S&P 500 rose 55.15 points, or 0.72%, to 7,730.86
• Nasdaq Composite surged 411.16 points, or 1.57%, to 26,541.35
• Russell 2000 gained 8.44 points, or 0.28%, to 3,014.34
• Nasdaq 100 rose 417.04 points, or 1.43%, to 29,641.56

Technology shares dominated the session following another strong quarter from Nvidia. The chipmaker easily beat expectations, issued revenue guidance above Wall Street forecasts and projected approximately 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028. Nvidia shares…

• Fed's Collins: Absent new tariff and oil shocks, there is reason to believe inflation will ease
• Trump signs executive order renaming Lake Ontario to Lake America
• Fed's Hammack: Next year inflation might ease to around 2.5% at best
• U.S. Treasury sells $44 billion of 7 year note that a high yield of 4.512%
• Fed's Hammack: It's appropriate to put some restraint into rates
• Canada Q2 current account +$8.84B vs -$2.00B expected
• US July advance trade balance -118.8B vs -100.5B expected
• US initial jobless claims 203K vs 208K estimate
• US Wholesale inventories (advanced) for July 1.3% vs 0.2% estimate
• Fed's Goolsbee: Biggest short run fear is that inflation isn't under control

Markets:

• Gold up $15 to $4607
• US 10-year yields up 0.8 bps to 4.67%
• WTI crude oil up…

Crude oil futures settled at $83.53, up $1.30, or 1.58%. The session high reached $84.27, while the low extended to $80.65.

Today’s rebound carried the price back above its 100-hour moving average at $83.39 and briefly above its 200-hour moving average at $84.06. However, the price could not sustain the move above the higher moving average and rotated back between the two levels into the settlement.

That leaves buyers and sellers battling for control within a well-defined technical area. Holding above the 100-hour moving average keeps buyers in the game, but a sustained break above the 200-hour moving average would be needed to strengthen the bullish bias and give the rebound more momentum. Conversely, a move back below the 100-hour moving…

• Recent PCE report didn't change modal outlook that mon pol is restrictive and will lead to gradual disinflation
• Portfolio management had an outsized influence on headline inflation, with market-based prices more in line with Fed's target
• Recent inflation data mixed with headline figure stronger but promising signs in the details
• Recent increase in bond yields not a sign inflation expectations are increasing

This is what she's been saying for awhile.

Trump says the order is effective immediately.

We live in the stupidest timeline.