Market News

The slowdown to an 11.2% annual pace, well below the 18.7% clip logged in the first half, will raise questions over whether the AI-driven turnaround in Chinese industrial profitability is starting to fade rather than merely normalizing off a strong base. Traders positioned for continued strength in China-exposed cyclicals and commodity demand may reassess given the clear deceleration trend across both the July print and the seven-month cumulative figure. The data adds to a broader mosaic of Chinese economic indicators markets are using to gauge the durability of the recovery from the 2021 to 2024 profit downturn, particularly given how central the AI and electronics manufacturing boost has been to this year's rebound. A continuation of…

The household spending beat is likely to firm up market pricing for an RBA rate hike, with the acceleration in annual growth to 7.0% suggesting consumer demand is running hotter than the central bank's forecasts had assumed. A move of this size relative to the 0.4% consensus is the kind of surprise that typically pulls forward rate expectations and lends support to the Australian dollar. That said, the same day's private capital expenditure data complicates a purely hawkish read, with the 3.6% quarterly contraction pointing to real weakness in business investment even as households keep spending. Traders will likely weigh the two releases together rather than trading off the spending number in isolation, since a hike delivered against a…

Himino's remarks read as a clear reaffirmation of the BOJ's tightening bias, with his explicit statement that the bank should continue raising rates and adjusting the degree of accommodation likely to keep September hike expectations firmly in play. His comment that the board must be more mindful of upside price risks than ever before, paired with his framing of both AI-driven demand and yen weakness as inflationary forces, strengthens the hawkish read markets had been positioning for ahead of the speech. The acknowledgment that supply disruption risk from the Middle East conflict has diminished, thanks to near complete alternative crude procurement, removes one of the more dovish caveats that had previously tempered rate hike conviction.…

Just a heads up post as the news is widely circulating. 

UKMTO clearly state the attack was a couple of days ago. 

Oil prices little changed. 

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this.

• PBOC injected 103 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at 1.40%, unchanged
• injected 503.5bn yuan through overnight reverse repos

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The move lands in line with market pricing, with 18 of 35 economists surveyed by Reuters having called for the hike, limiting the scope for a sharp won or bond market reaction on the decision itself. Attention now shifts to Governor Shin Hyun Song's press conference, where any signal on the pace of further tightening will likely carry more weight than the widely anticipated move. The unchanged 2026 inflation forecast at 2.7% suggests the board sees current price pressures as persistent rather than accelerating, which could temper expectations for a third consecutive hike in the near term. Traders will also weigh the growth forecasts, with 2026 GDP seen at a solid 3.3% before slowing to 2.9% in 2027, against the BOK's stated concern over…

Traders are treating Thursday's Himino address as a live test of September rate hike pricing, given his standing as one of the board's more hawkish voices. Any emphasis on upside inflation risk or the danger of falling behind the curve would likely reinforce yen strength and push JGB yields higher, tightening the case for a 25bp move at the September 17 to 18 meeting. Conversely, a more measured tone focused on data dependence could see hike bets pared back and add pressure back onto the yen, which has been trading in the high 158 range against the dollar with the 160 level watched as an intervention line. The speech also lands in the same week as the Jackson Hole symposium, raising the risk that Fed commentary competes with Himino's…

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader…

Schmid's television appearance lands squarely within the week the Fed itself has put centre stage, with the Kansas City Fed's own Jackson Hole symposium running Thursday through Saturday and drawing the world's central banking community to Wyoming. Given Schmid's role as host of the event and his recent public comments arguing that policy is not currently restrictive and that further tightening is needed, any repetition or hardening of that stance on air could reinforce hawkish rate expectations and put modest upward pressure on short end yields and the dollar. The symposium's own theme this year, financial innovation and its implications for payments and policy, means the week's formal sessions may not directly address the inflation…

The shift among major bank economists toward a near certain RBA hike this year materially changes the near term outlook for Australian rates markets. With CBA's move, six of the seven institutions covered in this post now expect at least one more increase, with the main point of debate now the timing rather than the direction, split between a September and a November move. That should keep upward pressure on short end bond yields and the Australian dollar into the September 28 to 29 meeting, with markets likely to treat every piece of data between now and then, including August labour force figures and GDP, as a live input into whether the RBA moves early or waits for the fuller picture from the August CPI print (30 September),…

Westpac's call puts it at odds with banks that have already shifted to a September or November hike, framing the July inflation beat as noisy rather than a genuine signal of reacceleration. The bank's focus on softer labour market and wage outcomes as the key offsetting factor suggests it sees the RBA weighting employment data more heavily than the headline CPI surprise in the lead up to the next meeting. By pointing to stable housing cost inflation and constrained developer pricing power, Westpac is effectively arguing the hottest components of the July print, durable goods and discretionary services, reflect one-off timing quirks rather than broad-based price pressure. A continued hold call from a major bank should temper some of the…

Nvidia's results underline how sensitive the stock has become to the gap between beating expectations and beating already sky-high ones, with an initial drop reflecting investor disappointment even after a solid quarter. The reversal came once management put concrete numbers behind the AI demand narrative, an unusually early and specific full-year guide that markets read as a strong signal of confidence. The suggestion that supply constraints, not demand, are the binding factor on growth points to continued tightness across the AI chip supply chain, with implications for suppliers and customers alike. The swing from a 3% loss to a 5% gain in the same after-hours session shows how quickly sentiment can turn on forward-looking commentary…