Market News

WTI crude oil futures are settling at $85.01, down $2.05 or 2.35% on the day. The low reached $84.36, while the high extended to $86.57.

Fundamentally, several factors helped pressure crude prices today.

First, there was some profit-taking following last week's gains, particularly ahead of the U.S. announcement of additional sanctions against Iran.

Second, although the U.S. announced a new campaign aimed at further isolating Iran economically, the initial measures stopped short of immediately imposing tougher secondary sanctions on countries continuing to trade with Iran. That appears to have reduced fears that significant amounts of Iranian crude would suddenly disappear from the global market. Iran also continues to export oil to China…

The EURUSD is testing a key short-term support area after buyers failed to sustain a break above an important retracement level last week.

Last week, the EURUSD moved above the 50% retracement of the decline from the January 28 high to the June low. That midpoint level comes in at 1.1702. Buyers had their shot, with the price reaching near 1.1710 on both Thursday and Friday, but each attempt above the midpoint failed. The inability to extend higher ultimately helped push the pair back below the 50% level, with the price moving lower into Friday's close.

That failure has carried over into trading today, with the EURUSD extending to the downside and now testing an important cluster of support.

The first key area comes between 1.1655 and…

Trump is upset about comments from Doug Ford, who is the Premier of the province of Ontario (the largest province and home to much of Canada's manufacturing sector).

Trump writes:

Lots of “bluster” from Doug Ford, who is the Premier of the Canadian Province of Ontario, but who is better known as the less charismatic, intelligent, and overall unimpressive brother of the late, great, Rob Ford. America has been carrying Canada for decades, but no longer! The U.S.A. will always be far bigger, richer, and stronger than Canada. Without the United States, Canada couldn’t survive — It’s where they get all of their money and, because of their current bad leadership, primarily Governor Carney, and his Flunky, Ford, they will not be allowed to…

• Trump is calling leaders to ask them to cut ties with Iran
• Wants 'zero leakage' on sanctions
• Countries will ahve a finite timeline to shut down activities we have identified, if they don't we will use Treasury authorities
• Will not set specific timelines for cutting ties, we don't have infinite patience
• Every country should be prepared to face US sanctions if they support Iran
• I expect a major financial institution to be sanctioned this week
• Do not take use of secondary sanctions lightly
• Would like Canada to come to the table and negotiate in good faith

I'm surprised to see oil lower today. There is a real debate on how much oil Iran is blocking in the Strait but eventually it's a number that matters and the US has entered some kind of war of…

The price of Bitcoin is up $2,300, or 3.0%, at $79,765, with the high for the day reaching $79,989 — just short of the natural resistance at the $80,000 level. Since bottoming at $57,735 at the end of June, Bitcoin has now rallied more than 36%.

Technically, the move higher follows an extended period of consolidation. From July 4 through August 18, Bitcoin traded above and below its 100- and 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (blue and green lines on hte chart above) as buyers and sellers battled for control. Since then, however, the buyers have taken a firmer grip.

The move higher has taken the price above both its 100-day moving average, currently at $66,113, and its 200-day moving average at $69,092. Those breaks helped shift the…

European shares are closing mixed on Monday, with Spain's Ibex (+0.69%) and UK FTSE 100 (+0.35%) leading the gains while France, and Italy lagged. The broader European market was little changed as investors continued to monitor geopolitical developments surrounding Iran and the potential for additional U.S. sanctions.

European closing levels:

• German DAX, -0.07% at 26,118.98

• France's CAC, -0.37% at 8,453.02

• UK's FTSE 100, +0.35% at 10,854.33

• Spain's Ibex, +0.69% at 20,098.59

• Italy's FTSE MIB, -0.24% at 52,542.17

There was little in the way of economic data to drive trading today, leaving geopolitical developments, movements in commodities and positioning ahead of events later this week as the primary influences.

As European traders head for the…

Bloomberg reports that Trump will impose a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods ahead of talks next month.

I'm imagine the report could scuttle the talks, which cites people familiar. 

The move would restore Trump’s second-term duties on China to around 20%, though that would still be consistent with a level China has previously tolerated.

Trump and Xi are due to meet in Washington on Sept. 24.

Ultimately, this might be more of a technical move in response to the Supreme Court striking down some US tariffs. In July, Trump imposed a 12.5% tariff on Chinese goods, citing inadequate efforts to address forced labor practices. In response Beijing said Washington had agreed to cap any additional duties on Chinese exports at 20%.

“We hope that the US…

Gold is higher by another $65 to $4668 in the third large gain in the past four trading days. That's helped to lift gold to the highest since May 17 and up more than $600 since the start of the month.

Familiar themes are driving the gold bid, namely the US effectively abandoning the 'strong dollar' policy by pursuign intervention in the yen. In addition, the Treasury is attempting to intervene in the bond market to drive yields lower. That somewhat backfired last week as yields went right back up despite an Operation Twist type move. 

A new report says the Treasury may tap its cash account to fund buybacks, something that could allow them to buy the long end without issuing more bills. Normally, buybacks are meant to be neutral and this…

The AUDUSD based last week just ahead of its 100-day moving average and the 50% retracement near 0.7070. Holding that key support gave buyers the go-ahead to push higher.

The first move to the upside last week revisited the August 17 high near 0.7129 before the pair consolidated. The second push was supported by the rising 100-hour moving average, and a break to new weekly highs was helped by sharply higher commodity prices, including gold. The AUDUSD ultimately reached 0.7180, stopping short of the next key target area between 0.71936 and 0.7200.

Today, the price action has turned more corrective, with the AUDUSD trading lower amid an up-and-down session. However, the trading range is only around 23 pips, suggesting sellers have yet to…

The USDCHF fell sharply last week, breaking below its 100-day moving average at 0.79753. The selling extended toward the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the May low to the July high at 0.79519. The low reached 0.7950 before buyers stepped in, pushing the pair back above the 100-day moving average.

On Friday, the rebound extended higher, helped in part by comments from SNB Board Member Petra Tschudin, who said the CHF had weakened amid higher inflation expectations abroad and relatively low inflation expectations in Switzerland.

After an early dip in Asia-Pacific trading today, buyers returned and pushed USDCHF toward its next key technical target. That area is defined by the lower end of a broader trading value area that had contained…

USD/CAD is a few pips higher on this but we knew that some retaliation was coming and this isn't exactly a nuclear bomb. It leaves plenty of time to TACO.

Canada has been ripping off the United States of America for years. Their ridiculously high tariffs on our Farmers and farm products has made life impossible for these great American Patriots, and has long created a 60 Billion Dollar Deficit between our two Countries. Not sustainable, and NOT ANYMORE! On January First, 2027, Tariffs on all Cars, Trucks, both large and small, Automotive Parts, and Steel, will be increased to 50%. Build in the U.S. and there are ZERO TARIFFS. Canada will be treated like a State no longer! On Trade, and in other ways, also, they are among the worst…

The chip and AI sectors are under heavy selling pressure today, with some of the biggest names being hit particularly hard. In my list of AI and semiconductor stocks, Sandisk is leading the declines, down 10.16%. The weakness is broad-based across the chip sector, adding to the pressure on the technology-heavy indices.

That selling is weighing heavily on the broader market, particularly the Nasdaq indices:

• Nasdaq 100: -1.30%
• Nasdaq Composite: -0.90%
• S&P 500: -0.37%

In the video above, I take a technical look at each of those indices, using the same tools to define the bias, risks and targets — three things every trader should be aware of.

The technical picture is a little different for each index. The Nasdaq 100 is the most bearish,…