Market News

As London/European traders exit for the day, the major European stock indices are mostly higher. The UK’s FTSE 100 leads the gains, followed by France’s CAC. Italy’s FTSE MIB bucks the trend with a decline.

The closing snapshot shows:

• German DAX: +38.71 points or +0.15% at 25,298.62.

• France’s CAC: +45.48 points or +0.58% at 7,873.12.

• UK’s FTSE 100: +74.53 points or +0.70% at 10,724.87.

• Spain’s IBEX: +20.02 points or +0.10% at 19,230.71.

• Italy’s FTSE MIB: -303.32 points or -0.61% at 49,753.85.

For the German DAX, the buyers had their shot. The index extended above its 100-day moving average at 25,416, reaching a high near 25,448. However, the break could not sustain any meaningful upside momentum, and the price rotated back below the moving…

The US dollar is broadly stronger today and that briefly pushed it to the highest against the Canadian dollar since April 2025. The peak was 1.4299 (or 0.6993 CAD). The 70-cent level is a sensitive one domestically and a clean break of it could give Canadians another reason not to travel south this winter.

The loonie had made strong gains yesterday as the post-jobs report weakness reversed. Friday's data saw Canada unexpectedly shed jobs but a closer look showed it was driven by government job losses in healthcare and education. The latter is a category that's particularly hard to seasonally adjust for in September due to school restarting while neither is indicative of underlying economic strength. That said, there have been mixed…

US stocks fall after CPI. Sellers make a play, but key support remains intact.

Nasdaq 100 is closest to a key downside break as buyers defend support across the broader indices.

The higher-than-expected CPI data has US stocks on the defensive:

• S&P 500: Down approximately 0.65%

• Nasdaq Composite: Down approximately 0.90%

• Nasdaq 100: Down approximately 1.05%

All three indices reached new record highs last Tuesday, but those breaks failed to sustain momentum. Buyers had their shot to extend higher. They missed.

Now sellers are making a play. However, the declines have yet to establish a definitive bearish bias across all three indices. Key moving average support remains in play, giving traders clear levels to measure whether sellers can take more…

One of the biggest challenges for new traders is knowing which economic releases deserve the most attention. Economic calendars typically classify indicators as low, medium or high impact, but these labels can be misleading. A release marked as high impact can sometimes pass without moving markets much, while a low impact indicator can trigger a significant reaction.

The impact of economic data depends not only on the indicator itself, but also on the current economic environment, central bank focus and what the market has already priced in.

Why impact ratings on calendars are useless

Economic calendars generally assign impact ratings based on how much volatility an indicator has historically generated. However, historical volatility does…

The US CPI came in higher than expectations and that has stocks lower, yields higher, and the dollar moving to the upside.

Where are the problem areas?

• Energy is the immediate problem. Gasoline jumped 9.1% in September, following 3.9% in August. Fuel oil rose 15.3%, following 10.1%. Energy’s June and July declines have given way to substantial increases. Electricity and piped gas were much more contained in September.

• Services inflation is becoming firmer. Services excluding energy progressed from +0.2% in July to +0.3% in August and +0.4% in September. That steady acceleration is a concern because it suggests the underlying pressure is broader than volatile energy prices.

• Shelter has picked up again. Monthly increases moved from +0.1% in…

The stakes around the October Federal Reserve meeting suddenly got much higher. 

Today's US CPI report was hot across the board, including in core measures that are less volatile than the energy-driven headline. The bond market quickly repriced on the data, with US 2-year yields now up 15 basis points on the day to 4.94%.

In the Fed funds futures market, pricing is now right at 50/50 for a hike or hold this month. It's also critical to note that the Fed goes into the blackout period on Saturday.

That leaves just three days to shape the narrative if the Fed doesn't want to go into the meeting with raised stakes. That starts today with a 1:30 pm ET speech from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin. I'm a fan of Barkin's level-headed style and…

S&P 500 futures: CPI selloff threatens the recovery channel, with a lower support test in view

S&P 500 E-mini futures have turned lower following the US CPI report, with the four-hour chart showing a potentially important deterioration in the short-term technical picture. About half an hour before the US cash market opens, futures are trading near 7,828, having fallen sharply from the 7,870 area. Let's jump into my simple 4h chart S&P 500 futures chart:

Three observations stand out.

1. The earlier breakout was meaningful, but its momentum has faded.

After approximately five attempts, S&P 500 futures finally broke above the descending purple resistance line in early October. That breakout was subsequently tested around October 8-9, when price…

• Building permits: +8.8% MoM vs +2.0% expected. Prior revised to -15.8% from -17.3%.
• Total permit value: $13.6 billion, up $1.1 billion.
• Residential permits: $8.5 billion, up $1.1 billion.
• Multi-unit permits: $5.8 billion, up $1.1 billion.
• Single-family permits: $2.6 billion, essentially unchanged.
• Non-residential permits: $5.1 billion, down $29.8 million.
• Inflation-adjusted permit value: +8.6% MoM and +12.4% YoY.
• Housing units authorized: 25,800, up 12.8% MoM.

Canadian building permits rose 8.8% in August, well above the 2.0% increase expected, according to Statistics Canada. July’s decline was also revised to 15.8% from 17.3%, adding to the stronger headline picture (but it was still down -15.8% of course).

Residential construction intentions…

• Prior was 3.4%
• Unrounded +3.738% vs +3.397% prior
• CPI m/m +0.6% vs +0.6  exp
• Prior CPI was +0.4%

Core readings:

• Core y/y 2.6% vs 2.5% expected
• Prior core was 2.4%
• Core unrounded +2.564% y/y vs +2.446% prior
• Core m/m +0.33% vs +0.2  expected
• Prior m/m +0.3%
• Unrounded m/m vs +0.318% prior
• Core goods +0.3% m/m vs +0.11% prior
• Real weekly earnings -0.5%  vs +0.2% prior
• Supercore y/y +3.13% vs +3.022% prior

Ahead of the report, the market was pricing in a 21%  chance of a rate hike in October and 27  bps in hikes this year. The October number is up to 47% and there are now 36 bps priced in this year. USD/JPY was trading at 158.46  ahead of the report and 158.82 afterwards.

Key sub-components:

• Owners’ equivalent rent: +0.3% vs +0.2% prior
• Rent of primary…

It is CPI day, and the next shove for the dollar, Treasury yields and stocks could arrive at 8:30 AM ET.

In the morning video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs—EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD—from a technical perspective. For each pair, I outline the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either the buyers or sellers more control.

The setup ahead of the release is mixed. The dollar is posting modest changes against most major currencies, with the Australian dollar the clear outperformer. Treasury yields are lower by around 1–2 basis points. Dow and S&P 500 futures are pointing higher, but Nasdaq 100 futures are lower. Meanwhile, crude oil is approaching $96, keeping the energy-inflation story firmly in…

It is CPI day, and traders are waiting for the next shove.

In the morning video above, I take a look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective, outlining the bias, risk-defining levels and targets ahead of the 8:30 AM ET inflation report. With the currency ranges still relatively contained, there is room for the data to get prices moving.

The US dollar is mixed ahead of the release. Treasury yields are modestly lower, while US stock futures show gains for the Dow and S&P 500 but a decline for the Nasdaq 100. Crude oil is moving higher toward $96, keeping energy costs firmly in the inflation discussion.

US CPI: Will core inflation stay contained?

The September CPI report will be released today at 8:30 AM ET. Expectations…

It is CPI day, and traders are waiting for the next shove.

In the morning video above, I take a look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective, outlining the bias, risk-defining levels and targets ahead of the 8:30 AM ET inflation report. With the currency ranges still relatively contained, there is room for the data to get prices moving.

The US dollar is mixed ahead of the release. Treasury yields are modestly lower, while US stock futures show gains for the Dow and S&P 500 but a decline for the Nasdaq 100. Crude oil is moving higher toward $96, keeping energy costs firmly in the inflation discussion.

US CPI: Will core inflation stay contained?

The September CPI report will be released today at 8:30 AM ET. Expectations…