Market News

The euro appears to be catching a bit of a break against the franc this week, though I'm not entirely convinced that the danger has passed just yet.

EUR/CHF was pressured late last week and tested waters below the 0.9300 level, posting its weakest daily close since July. But as we get into the new week, the pair managed to bounce off the key technical region around 0.9300 with the 100-day moving average (red line) and trendline support from the March and May lows helping to provide an additional layer of defense for buyers.

So, the question now is whether buyers can build on that rebound or if this is merely a temporary reprieve.

For now, the cluster of support levels around the 0.9300 region remains the key line in the sand. A firm break…

Gold has come under renewed pressure yesterday after oil prices surged to new weekly highs. Overall, the situation in the Middle East hasn’t changed much as the Houthis continue to attack Saudi Arabia, while the US-Iran negotiations remain at a stalemate.

This is going to continue to cap the upside in gold unless the Fed turns more dovish than market’s expectations, leading to a fall in real yields.

Looking ahead, the focus will remain on US-Iran developments, but we also have the US CPI report tomorrow as a key near-term catalyst.  

A hotter than expected core reading could raise the probabilities for a Fed rate hike in October, putting downward pressure on gold. A soft report, on …

• Eurostoxx +0.1%
• Germany DAX +0.2%
• France CAC 40 +0.5%
• UK FTSE +0.9%
• Spain IBEX +0.5%
• Italy FTSE MIB +0.2%

It's a positive start to proceedings in Europe, with modest gains across the board as we get the session underway. The broader advance suggests that investors are still finding some appetite for risk despite the cautious mood in global markets in recent weeks.

Having said that, I wouldn't read too much into the early gains just yet - even if they are carrying over from the day before.

The US bond market is back in action today and will provide a more important test for broader risk sentiment, especially after the sharp move higher in Treasury yields over the past few weeks. 10-year yields are hovering around 5.19% for now but we are still yet…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 13 October 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Asia markets were mostly bearish on Tuesday, led by a sharp technology and semiconductor selloff. Geopolitical tensions kept oil elevated near $106 per barrel and supported the US dollar. Japan’s wholesale inflation slowed but remained high enough to keep BOJ rate hikes in focus. For traders, the main instruments to monitor are Asian stock indices, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, gold and crude oil, with upcoming Chinese data and US inflation figures likely to drive the next major moves.

What does it mean for the European & US sessions?

European and U.S. traders should focus on the dollar, Treasury yields, German inflation, central bank speeches, and U.S.…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 13 October 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Oil prices rose because of Middle East supply concerns, helping push the U.S. dollar toward an 18-month high as inflation and interest-rate worries increased. Gold weakened, while U.S. stocks ended mixed, with energy shares supported and some technology stocks under pressure. Traders should watch oil and geopolitical headlines, dollar strength, and Wednesday’s U.S. CPI release for the next major market direction.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should focus on the U.S. dollar, Middle East tensions, oil prices, and Australian economic updates. A stronger dollar and rising oil prices could put pressure on Asian currencies, gold, and…

There is arguably just one key expiry level to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

And that will be for USD/JPY at the 158.00 mark, with the strike sitting just less than 25 pips away from the spot price. The expiries could be one to watch in keeping price action more anchored around the figure level in the session ahead, if we are to see a slight retreat in the currency pair.

To the upside, technical resistance from the 200-day moving average at 158.53 might help to limit any potential run higher in European trading. So, there is a sort of potential range for USD/JPY to play around with between 158.00 to 158.53 in the meantime.

That might be the case if dollar sentiment remains more muted and unassuming, with traders…

• German September final CPI +3.3% vs +3.3% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.9%
• Germany September final HICP +3.3% vs +3.3% y/y prelim
• Prior +2.9%

The headline readings are unrevised compared to the preliminary estimates, but they do reaffirm that German headline inflation has climbed back above the 3% threshold at the end of the third quarter.

Energy inflation is the main culprit, rising 3.8% within the month and is 14.9% more expensive compared to the same month last year. This marked the third consecutive month of year-on-year increases in energy prices (August 2026: +10.5%; July 2026: +8.3%; June 2026: +3.4%) and the highest since February 2023.

Core annual inflation is seen at 2.4%, keeping steady relative to August at least. So, that at least provides…

US Markets Mixed as Oil Rallies on Middle East Tensions – Nasdaq down 0.44%

US equity markets finished mixed yesterday as technology stocks came under pressure in relatively subdued trading conditions due to the Columbus Day holiday, which saw US Treasury markets closed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.38% to close at 51,850, while the S&P 500 edged 0.05% lower to finish at 7,807. The Nasdaq experienced the greatest selling pressure, declining 0.44% to close at 27,245 as investors continued to assess the implications of escalating geopolitical tensions and elevated interest rates.

US Treasury markets were closed for the holiday, with the latest available yields showing the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury at 4.787%,…

●         Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 2.06%, Shanghai Composite down 0.27% Hang Seng down 0.41% ASX up 0.19%

●        Commodities : Gold at $4,216.40 (0.61%) Silver at $60.788 (0.46%), Brent Oil at 105.38 (-1.19), WTI Oil at 92.54 (-1.28%)

●        Rates : US 10-year yield at 5.191, UK 10-year yield at 5.4482, Germany 10-year yield at 3.4752

●        (GBP)  MPC Member Mann Speak   68.3K to 6.1K  expected

U.S. stock futures were little changed on Monday night as investors prepared for a busy week of corporate earnings, with major banks and UnitedHealth scheduled to report results.

S&P 500 futures slipped 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures declined 0.2%. Dow Jones…

You can have a good trading strategy and even get most of your trades right. But as we've seen, that doesn't necessarily mean that you'll be profitable at the end of the day.

If you're constantly taking profits too early and worse still, letting your losses run wild, that's a recipe for disaster when it comes to trading. We've all been there, myself included, in letting losses consume you and give you a false sense of hope in believing that things might turn around. It's a slippery slope. Some of us are perhaps lucky enough to walk away with just a painful lesson. But for others, this is the thing that takes you out of the game entirely.

It all comes down to trading discipline at the end of the day.

Let's go back to the apple store example…