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The note points investors toward the physical layer of the AI trade, with access to high-voltage power now a tighter constraint than the capital to buy chips. That favours operators that have already secured grid capacity, and it suggests power availability, more than chip supply, could set the pace of new data centre builds through 2027. In software, budgets moving toward data and cybersecurity point to a widening gap between foundational platforms and application vendors, whose pricing models could come under pressure as agents replace human users. The emphasis on core platform returns also implies investors may reward proven monetisation of compute over speculative new revenue lines.

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In Goldman’s reading of the AI boom, money can…

• US stocks close mixed
• Earnings calendar October 12–16: Big banks, ASML and TSMC take center stage
• Hammack de la Fed: Las tasas del Tesoro son “modestas” según los estándares históricos
• European stocks close higher. Spain leads while the dollar strengthens
• Gold falls toward hourly moving averages. Can sellers keep control?
• Bitcoin buyers had their shot above the 200-hour MA. They missed.
• investingLive European session wrap: Oil rebounds, dollar firms as US bond market holiday keeps traders cautious
• Morning Kickstart: Dollar higher, oil rebounds as holiday trading begins

The dollar had the stronger hand to start the trading week. EURUSD traded to a new low for the year, while USDJPY moved above its 200-day moving average and stayed above. Oil…

A two-front geopolitical premium is now embedded in crude, with traders weighing the risk that direct US involvement against the Houthis widens the conflict around Gulf export infrastructure. The multi-year timeline for Saudi pipeline expansion suggests the kingdom’s ability to reroute or offset disrupted flows will stay constrained, reinforcing the tight-supply narrative. In products, extra Russian diesel would ease pressure on middle distillates, but Kyiv’s warning of winter retaliation keeps energy infrastructure risk two-sided. With US-Iran exchanges still stalled, there is little near-term relief for the oil risk premium.

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On Monday I wrote in despair of the silly narrative doing the rounds supporting gold. And sure enough gold is…

The major U.S. stock indices closed mixed to start the week. The Dow industrial average rose 196 points, but the broader indices finished lower, led by a 0.71% decline in the Nasdaq 100.

The modest index moves masked some much larger declines beneath the surface. Ciena and Lumentum fell nearly 10%, while a number of chip, networking and data-center shares lost 4% or more. The S&P 500 was little changed, but holders of those stocks felt considerably more pain.

The session also came with the U.S. cash Treasury market closed for Columbus Day. That left equities without a fresh cash-bond yield signal. Friday’s yields should not be interpreted as a move in rates today.

U.S. stock market closes

• Dow Industrial Average: +196.00 points (+0.38%) to…

Two releases this week will shape expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next move: the minutes of its September policy meeting, due Tuesday, and Thursday’s September labour force figures. Both come out at 11:30 am Sydney time, 00:30 GMT (8:30 pm ET the previous evening).

Today we get the minutes. 

In September, the RBA’s Monetary Policy Board raised the cash rate by a quarter point to 4.60%. The decision was unanimous and widely expected, and it was the fourth increase of the cycle. The board said inflation was still too high, reflecting strain on domestic capacity as well as global shocks from the Middle East conflict and the AI investment boom. It acknowledged that the economy was slowing and the jobs market easing. Neither…

The earnings calendar gets off to the traditional start on Tuesday, with the major banks leading the way. ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor follow later in the week, giving traders another important test of the technology story.

The question is straightforward: Can the results—and the outlooks—give buyers a reason to push higher?

Tuesday, October 13: Banks lead a busy morning

Key reports scheduled before the opening bell include:

• JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

• Goldman Sachs (GS)

• Citigroup (C)

• Wells Fargo (WFC)

• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

• UnitedHealth Group (UNH)

• Domino’s Pizza (DPZ)

• Albertsons (ACI).

For the banks, watch lending profitability, deposit costs, trading revenue and provisions for potential loan losses. The commentary on consumers and businesses could be…

Buyers regain control, with $93.48 now a key level to hold.

Crude oil pushed to its highest level since late September, with reports of increased Middle East tensions helping fuel the rally. A technical break above a key swing area gave buyers another reason to push higher.

On the hourly chart, the price moved above resistance between $92.29 and $93.48, reaching a high of $94.36 before rotating lower. The current price is near $93.56, with the pullback so far holding above the top of that former resistance area.

That makes $93.48 the immediate risk-defining level for buyers. When resistance is broken, traders want to see it hold as support. Stay above, and the upside remains the path of least resistance. Move back below, and the breakout…

The EURUSD has extended below last week’s low of 1.11603, reaching 1.1155 today—its lowest level since May 2025. The pair is currently trading near 1.1159.

The sellers got their opening earlier today when the rally stalled at 1.1217, near the falling 100-hour moving average at the time (see blue line on the chart above). The buyers had their shot, but they could not get above that technical ceiling. The subsequent move to a new low keeps the sellers in control.

What comes next on the downside?

The next key target is 1.11296, the 50% midpoint of the rally from the January 2025 low to the January 2026 high. A swing low from mid-May is also near that level, making it an important area to watch.

For beginner traders, that convergence matters: two…

Comments from the Fed’s Hammack cross the wires:

• Treasury rates right now are “modest” by historic standards.
• If the economy were to return to a 3% home mortgage it would likely mean something had gone wrong in the economy.
• The neutral rate is likely higher but it is hard to pin down.
• Hearing “early warning signs” of a possible problem with inflation expectations.
• Need to “cool the economy at the margins.”
• Higher interest rates won’t dissuade hyperscalers, but might influence firms in other industries.
• The question for the Fed now is how fast to make policy more restrictive.
• Don’t want to threaten the jobs side of the Fed’s mandate.
• There is more restraint that is needed; if monetary policy does nothing market conditions would change.
• Comments from…

The NZDUSD is one of the biggest movers in trading today, with dollar strength and NZD weakness keeping the sellers in control.

Since the August 21 high at 0.5985, the pair has trended lower, reaching 0.5579 last Monday. That low came within four pips of the November 2025 low at 0.5575.

Since then, the price has waffled up and down, with a corrective high at 0.56256. That puts the recent trading range at less than 50 pips. After a sustained decline, that consolidation tells us the selling has paused. It does not, by itself, signal that the trend has reversed.

Sellers are back near the floor

Today’s decline has taken the price to around 0.5584—just five pips above last Monday’s low.

For traders, the support area at 0.5575–0.5579 is the next key…

As London and European traders head home, the major European stock indices have closed higher across the board. Spain’s Ibex led the gains with a rise of 1.33%, followed by the UK’s FTSE 100, up nearly 1%.

The closing levels showed:

• German DAX: +190.41 points, or +0.76%, at 25,277.69.

• France’s CAC 40: +29.55 points, or +0.38%, at 7,832.89.

• UK FTSE 100: +104.24 points, or +0.99%, at 10,656.28.

• Spain’s Ibex 35: +252.69 points, or +1.33%, at 19,285.79.

• Italy’s FTSE MIB: +288.69 points, or +0.58%, at 50,034.99.

Stocks move higher despite European 10 year yields moving higher

Benchmark 10-year yields also moved higher, with France leading the increase:

• Germany: 3.476%, up 1.1 basis points.

• France: 4.896%, up 5.0 basis points.

• UK: 5.444%, up 0.5 basis…

The broader US stock indices are trading lower today, with the S&P modestly lower, the NASDAQ Composite down 0.33%, and the NASDAQ 100 down 0.65%.

Recall that all three closed at record levels last Tuesday before retreating on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday’s rebound improved the technical picture, but today’s declines are taking some of that bullish momentum away.

The key reference remains the rising 100-hour moving average. Last week’s lows held at or near that moving average for each index, giving buyers a level to lean against and keeping them in control.

Today, however, the technical stories are starting to diverge:

• S&P: The 100-hour moving average is at 7738.18. Today’s low reached 7802.58, with the index currently at 7809.96. Buyers…