Market News

The latest business and household confidence data released today:

• France September consumer confidence 86 vs 85 expected
• Prior 86
• France September business confidence 101 vs 102 expected
• Prior 103

More to follow...

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 24 September 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

The dominant theme is higher yields + geopolitical uncertainty + mixed Australian data. The Australian employment headline was strong, but the rise in unemployment and decline in full-time jobs triggered selling pressure in the AUD. Japan’s softer PMI contrasts with sharply higher JGB yields, keeping JPY crosses volatile. At the same time, elevated oil prices and strong U.S. yields are maintaining pressure on equities and gold, while supporting the U.S. dollar.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

A combination of hawkish U.S. monetary-policy expectations, elevated Treasury yields, Middle East tensions, and important European/North American…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 24 September 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

During the previous U.S. session, Federal Reserve tightening expectations, stronger U.S. economic data, and geopolitical developments affecting oil prices were the main market themes identified in available reports. These factors are relevant to the U.S. dollar, gold, crude oil and equity markets.

For today’s trading session, Australia’s employment report showed stronger-than-forecast job growth but a slightly higher unemployment rate. The Swiss National Bank decision, Canadian retail sales, and U.S. unemployment claims are among the economic events on your calendar that may introduce volatility.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders…

The SNB is widely expected to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0% later today, but the more interesting part will be what goes beyond the decision itself.

The latest survey of economists by Reuters show that a call for the SNB to hold today is unanimous, leaving the bigger focus to be on what the central bank says about inflation and the Swiss franc.

On the surface, there is at least some reason to talk about inflation again. Swiss inflation jumped in August, with the headline figure touching 0.8% - its highest since 2024. But when you dig beneath the surface, that number is much less worrying. Much of the increase came from energy, while core inflation remains at just 0.4%.

And that's where Switzerland arguably continues to stand…

There are a couple of key expiry levels to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

The first is for EUR/USD at the 1.1400 level, with the spot price sitting just below the strike and within a 20 pips range currently. The currency pair has been tracking lower all through the week, with the dollar finding strong bids especially as 10-year Treasury yields break the 5% mark to race to 5.11% - its highest since 2007.

But if price action continues to stick around here in the session ahead, that could see the 1.1400 level act as a short-term magnet and contribute to stickier price action in the heading into the cut.

A clean move away from the 1.1400 level would naturally reduce the influence of the expiries. And at this point, any…

The Patient NQ Futures Trader Today | September 24, 2026 | NQ December 2026

If I were watching Nasdaq futures today, I would have alerts near 30,900-30,935 and 30,380-30,420, with 30,640-30,675 as an important nearer support area.

These are places where I would become more interested in what price does next. Readers can use them as a heads-up, compare them with their own analysis, and bring their own entry and risk-management methods to the decision.

With NQ near 30,705 in this analysis snapshot, my focus is on letting the opportunity come to me. If price never reaches an area I like, I am comfortable leaving it alone.

Before diving into the areas of interest on Nasdaq futures today, pleased keep in mind that the macro landscape is facing…

The latest shipping numbers out of the Strait of Hormuz are offering a timely reminder that the oil market is still a long way from getting an all-clear signal.

The preliminary shipping data from Reuters indicated that only ten commodity vessels transited the strait on Wednesday, up from seven a day earlier. That still leaves traffic well below the 10-day moving average of around 17 vessels.

Just keep in mind that the usual caveat applies here, as some ships are travelling with their transponders switched off. That means the visible count may not capture everything moving through the waterway.

Still, it does provide some indicative feel of shipping flows through the strait. And I would argue that matters when looking at the latest swings in…

This week has basically revolved around two questions for broader markets. The first being can oil prices keep below $100? And the second being can 10-year Treasury yields stay below the 5% mark?

Today, we are starting to get an answer to both. And by the looks of it, neither is going in the direction that markets would have preferred.

Brent crude is back above $102 after a push higher in overnight trading, while 10-year Treasury yields have broken through 5% to hit 5.11% - the highest since 2007. And the moves here definitely did not go unnoticed. Stocks fell in Wall Street, with the S&P 500 dropping by 0.8% and the Nasdaq falling by 1.1%.

Earlier this week, I argued that the important thing wasn't simply whether Brent crude could trade…

• From 500 jets to salvage mode: Boeing's China hopes shrink ahead of summit
• Google readies Gemini 4 launch as it seeks to regain ground in the AI model race
• AUD little changed: Australia jobless rate hits 4.6%, highest since 2021, participation outpaces jobs beat
• Australian jobs data for August 2026. Unemployment rate 4.6% (expected 4.5%, prior 4.5%)
• Heads up: China markets shut Friday for Mid-Autumn Festival, with week-long Golden Week break ahead
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7489 vs. estimate at 6.7184)
• Japan flash PMI: growth slows to four-month low as price pressures stay intense
• Bangladesh orders 11 more Boeing jets as Dhaka courts US to ease tariff risk
• Explainer: why Japan may trim bond supply as scarcity in the JGB…

India's Nifty 50 slipped almost 1% in pre-open trade, while the rupee came under pressure. Traders said the Reserve Bank of India was likely selling US dollars to cap the currency's losses, suggesting authorities remain keen to smooth volatility as domestic markets open on a weaker footing.

For Boeing shares, the downside is largely expectations management: the chief executive had already played down a big new order, which limits the scope for disappointment. Confirmation of even part of the 200-jet deal could be taken as a modest positive, given the scepticism now built into the story. Airbus retains its structural advantage in China through local assembly, keeping its market share lead intact for now. The broader read-across is that commercial deals are secondary to strategic issues in US-China talks, so traders should not expect order announcements to drive sentiment around the summit.

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Earlier:

• Bangladesh orders 11 more Boeing jets as Dhaka courts US to ease tariff risk

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Boeing arrived at this year's China summits…