Prediction markets watch
Prediction markets are sending a sharper message than many traditional headlines right now
The biggest move is in rates. The market mood has turned more hawkish as energy-driven inflation risk rises, even though many economists were still recently centered on a June Fed cut. That gap matters because it shows how quickly traders are repricing the inflation fallout from the Iran war compared with the slower-moving survey consensus. Reuters reported that both Barclays and Goldman Sachs pushed their first Fed cut call to September, with Barclays now expecting only one 25 basis point cut in 2026. In other words, the market is not fully calling recession as the base case. It is first saying that the inflation shock is changing the rates story…