Market News

Prediction markets are sending a sharper message than many traditional headlines right now

The biggest move is in rates. The market mood has turned more hawkish as energy-driven inflation risk rises, even though many economists were still recently centered on a June Fed cut. That gap matters because it shows how quickly traders are repricing the inflation fallout from the Iran war compared with the slower-moving survey consensus. Reuters reported that both Barclays and Goldman Sachs pushed their first Fed cut call to September, with Barclays now expecting only one 25 basis point cut in 2026. In other words, the market is not fully calling recession as the base case. It is first saying that the inflation shock is changing the rates story…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.36%, Shanghai Composite down 0.71% Hang Seng up 1.14% ASX down 0.34%
• Commodities : Gold at $5,024.21 (-0.73%) Silver at $80.505 (-0.96%), Brent Oil at $104.56 (1.38%), WTI Oil at $97.75 (0.92%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.262, UK 10-year yield at 4.8270, Germany 10-year yield at 2.9768

• (USD) Prelim GDP q/q 213K  to 214K  expected
• (USD) Core PCE Price Index m/m 213K  to 214K  expected

Asia-Pacific markets declined on Monday as investors reacted to rising oil prices and the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran. Concerns about supply disruptions pushed crude prices higher, increasing uncertainty across global…

It is reported that a call is being arranged between Japan foreign minister Motegi and US secretary of state Rubio for later today, according to sources familiar with bilateral relations. Among what will be discussed is likely the topic of the Strait of Hormuz, after US president Trump has called for ally countries to dispatch warships to the region to act as escorts. I mentioned earlier here why that won't go down too well.

As a reminder, Japan is arguably one of, if not, the most impacted third-party by the US-Iran conflict. And it is in part complicating things domestically, not least with a struggling currency. From earlier: Tokyo intervention looms large as USD/JPY nears 160 mark

Besides that particular topic, it is reported that…

It is reported that a call is being arranged between Japan foreign minister Motegi and US secretary of state Rubio for later today, according to sources familiar with bilateral relations. Among what will be discussed is likely the topic of the Strait of Hormuz, after US president Trump has called for ally countries to dispatch warships to the region to act as escorts. I mentioned earlier here why that won't go down too well.

As a reminder, Japan is arguably one of, if not, the most impacted third-party by the US-Iran conflict. And it is in part complicating things domestically, not least with a struggling currency. From earlier: Tokyo intervention looms large as USD/JPY nears 160 mark

Besides that particular topic, it is reported that…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 16 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Geopolitical escalation in the US-Israel-Iran conflict overshadowed U.S. data releases like the Empire State Manufacturing Index and February Industrial Production on March 16, 2026, triggering a WTI oil price spike to $119/bbl before retreat, boosting energy stocks but pressuring broader equities (S&P 500, Nasdaq down ~1%), lifting DXY to 99.73, and heightening VIX to ~27 amid inflation fears curbing Fed rate cut hopes.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders face a volatile open, driven primarily by escalating Middle East tensions impacting oil prices and regional equities. Key developments include surging crude oil prices…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 16 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Geopolitical escalation in the US-Israel-Iran conflict overshadowed U.S. data releases like the Empire State Manufacturing Index and February Industrial Production on March 16, 2026, triggering a WTI oil price spike to $119/bbl before retreat, boosting energy stocks but pressuring broader equities (S&P 500, Nasdaq down ~1%), lifting DXY to 99.73, and heightening VIX to ~27 amid inflation fears curbing Fed rate cut hopes.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders face a volatile open, driven primarily by escalating Middle East tensions impacting oil prices and regional equities. Key developments include surging crude oil prices…

US Stocks Drop into Weekend as War Continues – Nasdaq down 0.9%
US markets closed the week on a softer note on Friday as the conflict in the Middle East entered its third week, with little indication that tensions are about to ease. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty kept investors cautious, with all three major US equity indices finishing the session lower. The Dow slipped 0.26% to close at 46,598, while the S&P 500 fell 0.61% to 6,632, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.93% to end the week at 22,105. Currency markets saw the US Dollar continue its recent run higher, with the DXY climbing 0.76% to reach 100.50 and mark fresh annual highs. US Treasury yields were mixed on the session. The 2-year yield eased by 2.4 basis points to 3.717%, while the…

As a reminder, US president Trump is scheduled to make a visit to China from 31 March to 2 April. Beijing has not officially confirmed the dates but it seems like the visit will still take place regardless. After all, it's now a case of Trump needing to do so or risk losing face. That especially after the US Supreme Court shot down his tariffs, which now gives China more leverage on their end.

Top officials from both sides met in Paris over the weekend, with reports suggesting that talks were "remarkably stable" and that they were "candid and constructive".

With Trump and Xi set to meet for the first time since October last year, both sides will want to lay out more "progress" on both trade and economic ties surely. But as mentioned before,…

But no one will answer.

In a desperate attempt to try and "fix" this whole mess of a situation, US president Trump has called for allies to step in and help with the Strait of Hormuz de facto closure. His suggestion is for the countries affected to send their own warships to help escort ships through the strait.

In particular, he calls on Japan, China, South Korea, and the UK to do so since they are the ones who are the most impacted by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. However, here are two key reasons why that just won't do. And even so, the practicality of the whole situation also might not make much sense.

The first being that no other country wants to get involved in a war that they have no business with. It's wild to think that Trump…