Market News

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 20 April 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Today’s Asia session was priced heavily around the U.S.–Iran escalation story, with equities on modestly divergent moves, oil and dollar‑linked assets in focus, and Asian EM FX and rates reflecting both the immediate war‑risk shock and the longer‑term drag of higher energy prices on growth and inflation.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Iran war’s ongoing volatility, including oil price surges from Strait of Hormuz tensions, mixed signals on ceasefires boosting U.S. stocks via “TINA” trades, and corporate updates like National Australia Bank’s $503 million impairment from Mideast risks. In macro data, watch U.S. retail sales…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 20 April 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The U.S. session on April 18 featured equity rallies driven by Trump’s de-escalation signals on the U.S.-Iran war, easing oil inflation fears, and spurring record Nasdaq/Dow gains, while bonds rallied on tempered rate hike worries amid stable labor data but cautious consumer trends; oil and energy-sensitive currencies like CAD saw relief, underscoring geopolitics’ outsized market sway over absent macro prints.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders face a pivotal start with the PBOC interest rate decision at 01:15 GMT, likely holding at 3.00% but poised to influence CNY pairs, equities, and commodities amid fragile US-Iran…

The brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz barely lasted a day. That before Iran's military decided to shut down passage of the waterway again as Tehran is dissatisfied with the continued US naval blockade. After that, US president Trump said that he was still optimistic that a deal could get done but not before threatening to strike Iran's civilian infrastructure if there wasn't one.

Come today, we're seeing a barrage of headlines from Iran in claiming that they will not back down from their negotiating position. Adding that there remains significant "differences" on key issues such as nuclear and that "the gaps have not narrowed". Still, one can argue that markets are taking all the latest developments in stride for the most part.

Sure,…

Weekend Updates to Flip Markets Today – Brent up 8% on the Open

US equity markets closed out last week on a strong note, with all three major indices posting solid gains as optimism grew around potential peace developments in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Dow Jones rallied 1.79% to finish at 49,447, while the S&P 500 rose 1.20% to 7,126 and the Nasdaq gained 1.52% to close at 24,468, both extending to fresh record levels. Despite the positive finish on Friday, the outlook for the new week has flipped following weekend developments, with the Strait of Hormuz now closed again. In currency markets, the US dollar was largely unchanged on Friday, edging just 0.01% higher to 98.23, holding near multi-month…

• Pakistan Army Chief Munir spoke to Trump, told him Hormuz blockade is hurdle to talks
• Trump told Munir he would consider his advice

A senior Pakistani security source has confirmed that Chief of Army Staff General Asim Munir held a conversation with US President Trump regarding the escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. During the call, General Munir reportedly suggested that the ongoing blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has become the single most significant hurdle to the success of the Islamabad-mediated peace talks. The source noted that the Army Chief conveyed a clear message that de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is a prerequisite for moving toward a meaningful diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran.

Munir argued…

• US proposals have been 'unserious', and its demands 'unrealistic'
• Tehran has clearly stated its demands and will not change them
• We do not believe in deadlines or ultimatums when it comes to safeguarding national interests

Tehran is definitely being quite vocal about the situation here to start the new week. Adding to this is that its military spokesperson has also come out to say that it is "ready to confront the US after aggression against Iranian ship". That refers to the seized Iran-linked vessel from the US naval blockade.

In any case, the message from Iran seems to be that they are looking to want to maintain a hard line in negotiations. But as mentioned earlier, being uncompromising has always been their default negotiating position…

This is almost an exact reoccurrence to what we saw in December last year, with the same sort of tsunami warning being issued for the same three prefectures above. At the time, it was also a 7.5 magnitude earthquake that struck off the coast of Aomori (northern Honshu). And 90,000 people were ordered to evacuate the affected areas in the last episode.

NHK is already reporting that tsunami waves of up to four meters is already hitting the Miyako Harbour in the Iwate prefecture. So, the episode this time around is already much bigger than the previous one. Despite a similar tsunami advisory issued in December, the actual waves that struck were only around 0.7 meters in height.

It is also being reported that there is no abnormality seen at the…

• Differences over nuclear programme remain unresolved
• The gaps have not narrowed
• Continuation of US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz undermines efforts for peace talks

At the same time, Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson is also out in saying that "there is no plan for a second round of negotiations with the US for now".

Well, Iran continuing to maintain a hard line and uncompromising stance has always been their negotiating position from the get go. So, this is very much consistent with that brand. It was the same before the first round of talks but eventually there was some form of dialogue at the end of the day. So, it could very much be the case again this time around later this week.

That being said, having a conversation and agreeing to…

It is reported that Pakistan has intensified its diplomatic contacts since Sunday so as to try and get the US and Iran to sit down for talks "as soon as Tuesday".

In case you missed the headlines over the weekend, US president Trump said that he was still optimistic about a deal. And that is despite the pushback from Iran in closing the Strait of Hormuz again, after being unhappy with the US maintaining its naval blockade. Trump added that US representatives will be heading to Islamabad today for talks. However, Iran has not confirmed its participation yet.

I still reckon we will see some form of negotiation between both sides again some time this week. It could be as early as tomorrow but I wouldn't hold my breath on it. And that…