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US officials warn Iran may take months to yield under a naval blockade, despite Trump saying the war is near an end, with talks stalled and demands on uranium enrichment still far apart.

Summary:

• Trump says the Iran war is “very close to over,” but negotiations remain stalled with wide gaps between both sides.
• The US is pressing for a 20-year enrichment freeze and removal of uranium, while Iran is offering far less.
• Officials and analysts warn Iran could take months or longer to feel enough economic pain from the blockade to concede.
• The US is prepared to sustain the naval blockade indefinitely, though it may strain military resources.
• Talks via Pakistan have yielded no breakthrough, with both sides still far apart.
• Internal and…

• Fed's Beige Book: Overall activity showed slight to modest growth in 8 of 12 districts
• ECB sources report: Policymakers wary of April rate hike
• Japan's Katayama said she spoke with Bessent about currencies
• US and Iran said to be weighing two-week ceasefire extension
• US EIA weekly crude oil inventories -913K vs +154K expected
• US NAHB April housing market index 34 vs 37 expected
• Ceasefire in Lebanon will be approved tonight - report
• Fed's Hammack signals "patient policy" as Fed navigates five-year inflation miss
• Canada February manufacturing sales +3.6% vs +3.8% expected
• Empire Fed April manufacturing index +11.0 vs -0.5 expected

Markets:

• Gold down $46 to $4749
• WTI crude oil down 28-cents to $90.99
• US 10-year yields up 2.5 bps to 4.28%
• AUD leads, JPY…

I posted a preview of the Australian jobs report here:

• For the Reserve Bank: despite a softening labour outlook, inflation risks tied to the energy shock remain the dominant concern. As a result, upcoming labour data is unlikely to materially shift near-term policy expectations.

China’s first-quarter GDP is expected to show a modest pickup in growth, supported by resilient exports, though the outlook for the remainder of 2026 is increasingly clouded by external risks and weak domestic demand.

Economists broadly expect the January–March expansion to come in around 4.7–4.8% year-on-year, up from 4.5–5.0% in the fourth quarter, marking a tentative rebound after growth slowed to a multi-year low late last year. On a quarterly basis, activity is…

This is nothing really new as AP reported hours ago that a two-week ceasefire was on the table. At the moment, all the headlines are pointing towards peace.

Despite that, there are some more equity bids on this and oil is ticking lower. The Nasdaq is now up 1% in its 11th (!) day in a row of gains.

About an hour ago, Axios reported that the US and Iran made progress in talks on Tuesday, moving closer to a framework agreement to end the war.

• Prior was 38
• Single family 37 vs 42 prior
• Prospective buyers 22 vs 25 prior
• Sales expectations 42 vs 49 prior

The US housing industry is in a deep recession and rising rates following the Iran war aren't going to help. If there's any good news it's that borrowing costs have ticked down since the ceasefire. We are a long way from the Fed getting back to rate cuts though and the latest indications are that the economy is solid.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), published monthly by the National Association of Home Builders, is one of the most widely followed gauges of sentiment in the U.S. residential construction industry. Derived from a survey that NAHB has conducted for more than 40 years, the index polls roughly 900 home…

• Prior was +3081K
• Gasoline -6328K vs -2077K expected
• Distillates -3122K vs -2437K expected

The oil market has bigger things to worry about than this but there are around 100 VLCC's heading to the US Gulf, so there is going to be a very large call on US oil supplies in the next few weeks. WTI crude oil is down 17-cents to $91.10 today.

The Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, is one of the most closely watched energy data releases in the world. Issued every Wednesday, the report provides a comprehensive snapshot of the U.S. petroleum balance sheet, covering crude oil and refined product inventories, refinery inputs and utilization rates, domestic production, imports, exports, and…

Al Mayadeen cites a senior "Iranian political-security source" who says that a ceasefire in Lebanon will be approved tonight. The source also says it's "possible" that Netanyahu may move to undermine it.

The ceasefire is said to be for one week but will extend with the Iran-US ceasefire, which was reported by the Associated Press to be under discussion to extension, citing mediators.

This is another sign that everything is leading towards peace but with a 10-day rally in the Nasdaq, I'd argue that peace is +90% priced in already and note that the toughest discussions are always at the end. I can't imagine it will be a completely smooth process and every day of missing oil production hurts.

S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% and have ticked higher…

• Prior was -0.2
• New orders +19.3 vs +6.4 prior
• Prices paid +51.0 vs +36.6 prior
• Employment +9.8 vs +5.8 prior

Separately, the US was out with import/export price data:

• Import prices +0.8% vs +2.0% exp
• Export prices +1.6% vs +1.5% exp

Those numbers align with PPI data released earlier this week that were surprisingly benign.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, published monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, is one of the earliest regional manufacturing indicators released each month and is closely watched as a barometer of broader U.S. industrial activity. The survey polls approximately 200 manufacturing executives across New York State, who report changes in 11 indicators — including general business conditions, new orders,…

• Prior was -3.0% (revised to -3.1%)
• Wholesale sales vs +2.0% vs +2.3% expected
• Prior wholesale -1.0% (revised to -1.1%)

The Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (MSM), conducted by Statistics Canada, is a key indicator of the health of Canada's industrial sector. The survey covers approximately 6,500 manufacturing establishments classified under the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), tracking sales of goods manufactured, inventories, unfilled orders, new orders, and capacity utilization rates. Data are reported in current Canadian dollars and adjusted for seasonal variation, with constant-dollar estimates also provided to strip out price effects. The survey draws on both direct responses from manufacturers and modelled…

• Full report here

AP News is reporting that mediators are working to extend the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran before it expires next week on April 22. Despite a US naval blockade and renewed threats from Tehran, regional officials report that both nations have reached an agreement in principle to continue diplomatic efforts.

The primary obstacles to a lasting peace involve disputes over Iran’s nuclear program, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and compensation for wartime damages. While Trump has expressed optimism that a deal is close, other US officials remain cautious.

The markets are already looking past the war and as long as the ceasefire holds, the downside will likely remain limited. Nevertheless, the risk that the…

Headlines:

• Markets keep the calm awaiting a potential US-Iran deal
• Gold remains supported amid US-Iran deal optimism as real yields extend the drop
• US president Trump: I think the war with Iran can be over very soon
• Trump says he thinks extending the ceasefire will not be necessary
• Mediators move closer to extending US-Iran ceasefire - AP News
• US sends thousands more troops to Middle East as Trump seeks to squeeze Iran - WaPo
• IRGC warns to stop all imports and exports in the Gulf of Oman if US continues blockade
• Iran reportedly to use alternative ports to bypass US blockade of Strait of Hormuz
• Japan poised to release around 36 million barrels from its oil reserves
• US president Trump: If Powell doesn't leave, I have to fire him
• France March final CPI…

• Predicts that oil prices will drop back to or below previous levels
• China has not responded to the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz
• If Iran doesn't agree to give up nuclear weapons, there will be no deal
• Iran will not have nuclear weapons

The headline comment is pretty much a rehash of what he had to say overnight. That being: "I view it (the war) as very close to over. If I pulled up stakes right now, it would take them 20 years to rebuild that country. And we're not finished. We'll see what happens. I think they want to make a deal very badly."

He also earlier in the day went on to say that he isn't thinking about extending the ceasefire period, as he does not believe that it will be necessary to do so. That before giving markets much hope…