Market News

• Prior 52.3
• Composite PMI 49.2 vs 52.1 prior

Key findings:

• Fresh declines in output and new business
• Highest rate of cost inflation in over three years, driving a steeper hike in charges
• Confidence among weakest in more than five years

Comment:

Eleanor Dennison, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

"The Italian services economy showed signs of fragility in March, as challenging external conditions due to war in the Middle East weighed on demand and activity. The sector contracted at the strongest pace in nearly two and-a-half years, marking just the fourth monthly fall in output seen over this period.

"Hikes to fuel, energy, raw material as well as wage costs placed additional pressure on operating expenses, with the rate of input price…

• Prior -3.1

That's the softest reading since April 2025 as euro area investor sentiment plunges amid the US-Iran conflict. The surge higher in energy prices and supply chain disruptions are two major factors in dragging down investor morale with Sentix noting that "investors realise that recession is once again on the table".

Adding that "the attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to shipping in the Persian Gulf are weighing even more heavily on people's minds than they did four weeks ago".

Besides that, the expectations index also dropped drastically to -15.5 from 3.5 last month. Meanwhile, the current situation index also fell to -22.8 from -9.5 in March. All of that are also the lowest readings since April last…

• Prior 53.9
• Final Composite PMI 50.3 vs 51.0 prelim
• Prior 53.7

Key findings:

• Output growth eases amid renewed decline in new work
• Input price inflation highest since April 2025 due to surge in fuel costs
• Business optimism falls to its lowest for nine months

Comment:

Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

"UK service providers experienced a marked slowdown in output growth in March as the war in the Middle East encouraged greater risk aversion among clients and postponed investment decisions. Cutbacks to business and consumer spending meant that the rate of business activity expansion was the weakest seen since April 2025.

"Stagflation risks appear to have increased, with the final Services PMI data signalling…

Markets Cautious on Middle East Developments – S&P up 0.4%
US equity markets began the week on a cautiously positive note, with all three major indices closing higher as investors continued to assess the evolving situation in the Middle East. Hopes of a potential ceasefire provided some underlying support; however, recent commentary from both sides suggests the conflict is likely to persist, particularly with a US-imposed deadline fast approaching, keeping a degree of caution in play. The Dow rose 0.36% to close at 46,669, while the S&P 500 gained 0.44% to finish at 6,611. The Nasdaq outperformed slightly, climbing 0.54% to settle at 21,996, as risk sentiment held relatively steady despite the geopolitical backdrop. In currency markets,…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 07 April 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

U.S. markets overnight grappled with subdued macro releases like the NY Fed GSCPI and Treasury auctions amid dominant Iran war headlines, where Trump’s escalation threats drove oil (Brent >$111/bbl) sharply higher on supply fears, while stock futures edged mixed (S&P +0.1%) on flickering ceasefire hopes; the lingering strong March jobs beat (178k added, 4.3% unemployment) reinforced Fed pause expectations but heightened inflation risks from energy shocks.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian markets remain on edge for Trump-Iran developments that could spike oil further, disrupt Gulf shipping, and trigger retaliatory volatility,…

• Prior 49.6
• Composite PMI 48.8 vs 48.3 prelim
• Prior 49.9

The readings might be revised higher in the final report but they are still much softer than in February. A sharper decline in new business weighed on business activity with the war in the Middle East also reportedly hit order books. As such, it is once again demand-side weakness that is plaguing French services activity as we wrap up Q1.

Besides that, the most prominent impact of the US-Iran conflict was on prices as input cost inflation rose to a 20-month high. Ouch.

HCOB notes that:

"The resolution of the budget deadlock earlier this year has failed to provide France's economy with a springboard into higher growth during the first quarter, according to the latest PMI numbers. That said,…

• Prior 53.5
• Final Composite PMI 51.9 vs 51.9 prelim
• Prior 53.2

Key findings:

• New business falls for first time since last September
• Output price inflation eases despite spike in cost pressures

Comment:

Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

"The war in the Middle East has put the brakes on growth in the service sector. Higher prices at the fuel pumps and heightened levels of uncertainty have weighed on spending and caused business activity growth to slow sharply to its weakest for seven months in March.

"Inflows of new business have fallen for the first time since last September in a clear sign of the Middle East war's immediate impact on demand, whilst a notable drop in business expectations underlines how…

• Prior 51.9
• Composite PMI vs 50.5 prelim
• Prior 51.9

More to come..

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 25 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

U.S. import/export prices ticked higher modestly while the current account deficit narrowed, offering some relief on inflation but highlighting persistent trade frictions amid tariff reversals and global tensions; this spurred a weaker dollar, gold rally, and yield softening, with equities mixed and oil choppy as the primary movers.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

US-Iran developments for volatility in oil, equities, and FX, as Trump’s de-escalation comments fuel regional rebounds but skepticism persists amid fragile peace hopes; oil’s plunge eases inflation fears, supporting risk assets like Kospi and Nikkei, while gold and USD…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 25 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

China’s medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation stands out as a key event for gauging liquidity and interest rate signals amid ongoing regional tensions. Broader headlines were dominated by lingering effects of the Middle East conflict, including President Trump’s prior threats over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s denial of de-escalation talks, which continued to fuel oil price volatility and inflation fears, alongside a cautious rebound in equities tracking Wall Street’s mixed close.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Oil prices are dropping over 5% amid uncertainty over U.S.-Iran talks and President Trump’s signals on…

• Prior 51.9

Well, don't let the headline estimate fool you. Spain's services sector increased solidly last month owing to a further rise in new business received by companies. However, new order growth softened to its lowest level in nine months as the latest Middle East developments start to give rise to uncertainty. Of note, new export sales declined again, whilst confidence in the outlook was the lowest since September 2023.

Besides that, higher energy prices are also starting to be a factor as overall operating expenses rose at a rate not seen since April 2023. That comes as input price inflation surges and is going to become more and more of a problem in the months ahead.

HCOB notes that:

“Spain’s service sector expanded at a solid rate…