Market News

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.37%, Shanghai Composite up 0.26% Hang Seng up 0.45% ASX down 0.41%
• Commodities : Gold at $4,465.75 (1.24%) Silver at $69.463 (2.17%), Brent Oil at $100.93 (-0.94%), WTI Oil at $93.48 (-1.06%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.425, UK 10-year yield at 4.9710, Germany 10-year yield at 3.0631

• (USD) Unemployment Claims  210K  to 211K  expected

Asia-Pacific markets declined Friday after a volatile overnight session on Wall Street, as uncertainty over a possible Middle East peace deal continued to unsettle investors. Conflicting signals from the Donald Trump administration and Iran kept sentiment cautious across regional…

• Prior +2.3%
• HICP +3.3% vs +3.9% y/y expected
• Prior +2.5%

This is the first indication that higher energy prices are starting to see an impact. The monthly inflation estimate shows a 1.0% increase, which is the highest since February 2023. That is leading to headline annual inflation in Spain rising to 3.3%, which is the highest since June 2024. That despite missing on estimates as seen above.

The good news at least is that core annual inflation is continuing to keep stable at 2.7%. And that is unchanged from the reading seen in February.

That being said, higher energy prices will eventually play a role in lifting broader prices in the economy. That especially if it sticks around for too long. We already got a taste of that from the…

US Stocks Tumble as Fears of a Longer Conflict Increase – Nasdaq down 2.4%
Global financial markets remained highly volatile through the latest sessions, as investors continued to react to fresh developments surrounding the conflict in the Middle East. US equity markets closed firmly lower across the board, reflecting the cautious tone. The Dow Jones fell 1.01% to 45,960, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.74% to 6,477. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the declines, sliding 2.38% to finish at 21,408, as investors reduced exposure to higher-risk assets heading into the weekend. In currency markets, the US dollar strengthened against the majors, with the DXY rising 0.34% to 99.94. Fixed income markets saw more pronounced moves, with US Treasury yields…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 27 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

Financial markets were shaped more by headline risk, especially tentative progress in U.S.–Iran talks, than by hard macro data, with WTI crude slipping from just below 100 toward the low‑90s and triggering a modest risk‑on rebound in U.S. equities and Treasuries. The dollar held relatively firm despite the oil pullback, while key instruments most affected included oil futures, large‑cap equity indices, and tech‑heavy NASDAQ futures, and U.S. 2‑ and 10‑year yields, which eased but remained elevated on the backdrop of still‑tight geopolitical risk and inflation concerns.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should watch for…

• Prior +1.8%; revised to +2.0%
• Retail sales +2.5% vs +2.1% y/y expected
• Prior +4.5%; revised to +4.8%
• Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -0.4% vs -0.8% m/m expected
• Prior +2.0%; revised to +2.2%
• Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +3.4% vs +2.9% y/y expected
• Prior +5.5%; revised to +5.9%

The drop here isn't as bad as estimated, and that comes despite a positive revision to the January figures. Despite the monthly drop, UK retail sales remain decent in the past few months, with the less volatile three-month reading showing retail sales up 0.7% in the three months to February.

But when compared to the pre-pandemic level in February 2020, retail sales volumes are down 0.3% as of last month.

Looking at the details, the drop in February largely stems from a marked…

And so the deadline gets pushed to 6 April now. It all started with 48 hours from the past Saturday and then another supposed 5 days from Monday. This is starting to drag on for quite a bit more than "just a couple of weeks". US president Trump is trying to calm the nerves as he delays escalating military actions and boasts "very substantial" talks with Iran.

Once again, the latest development just serves to reaffirm that we are moving on to a new phase in the war. Iran has leverage via control of the Strait of Hormuz. And that is enough to push Trump's pain points on multiple fronts in markets. So, that's resulting in the US needing to dial back or risk upsetting markets even more before any of it gets better.

The funny thing is we've seen…

• Cyclone Narelle disrupts 8% of global LNG supply from Australia
• India cuts fuel duties, increases export tax as oil volatility rises
• China industrial profits jump 15.2% as war risks threaten outlook
• RBI to hold rates at 5.25% through 2027 as oil risks cloud outlook
• New Zealand unveils fuel contingency plan amid rising Hormuz risks
• CNN: US Iran options risk heavy casualties with no clear path to victory
• China January - February Industrial profits rocket higher, +15.2% ytd y/y (prior +0.6%)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9141 (vs. estimate at 6.9083)
• Verbal intervention in the yen - Japan fin min says seeing speculative FX moves
• Pentagon weighs 10,000 troop deployment as Trump pauses Iran strikes
• Fed’s Barr warns energy shock may…

China industrial profits surge but rising costs and war risks cloud outlook

Summary:

• China industrial profits jump 15.2% y/y in Jan–Feb vs 0.6% in 2025
• Tech and electronics sectors lead gains, boosted by AI demand
• Margins remain under pressure from rising costs and competition
• Weak domestic demand reflected in ongoing producer deflation
• Middle East conflict raises risks via energy and trade channels
• Higher input costs could slow earnings recovery ahead

China’s industrial sector has started the year on a stronger footing, with profits rising sharply in the first two months, signalling that policy support and improving demand are feeding through into corporate earnings. However, this recovery is unfolding against an increasingly uncertain…

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Profits at China's industrial firms grew 15.2% in the first two months over the same period last year.

• accelerated from a 0.6% increase for the whole of last year

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand consumer confidence March 2026 91.3

• prior 100.1

• Trump has given Iran another 10 days: "Pausing ... to Monday April 6"
• Trump: Very substantial talks are going on with Iran
• Senior Iran official: No plan for talks appears realistic at this stage
• WSJ. Iran wants US to scale back demands before agreeing to any cease-fire talks
• Mexico central bank lowers benchmark interest rate to 6.75% from 7.00%
• BOC Rogers: Will have a tough job dealing with structural changes to the economy
• Israeli officials have become convinced Trump could soon try to end the war - report
• US sells 7-year notes at 4.255% vs 4.252% WI
• Trump in cabinet meeting: They are begging to make a deal
• Iran officially responded to Trump's peace plan: No deal
• JD Vance working to eliminate Netanyahu from Trump's decision-making circle - report
• <a…