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Trump yesterday hinted that France would ultimately get involved in a Hormuz operation and now we're seeing signs that's true, though with some strange caveats:

• Once strikes have stopped, we are read to take the responsibility of an escort system in Hormuz
• Any role in Hormuz would be only if there is an end to hostilities
• Any such Hormuz mission would need Iranian coordination

This is a tough position to make sense of as it implies Iran would be involved rather than fighting it. Perhaps that makes sense if Iran splinters and a central government seeks peace while commanders near Hormuz continue to wage war? Or maybe it's Macron trying to walk a fine line where he doesn't really want to get involved while not directly rebuking Trump.

Oil is…

• Prior was -0.8%
• Index vs 70.9 prior

This is the lone notable US economic release today and with the Fed in blackout, all eyes are on Iran today.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), published monthly by the National Association of Realtors, tracks signed contracts on existing homes and serves as a leading indicator of closed sales, which typically follow one to two months later. The index is benchmarked to 100, representing the average level of contract activity in 2001.

In January 2026, pending home sales fell 0.8 percent month over month to an index reading of 70.9 — the lowest level in the history of the series. The decline also marked a 0.4 percent drop from a year earlier and came as a disappointment to forecasters, who had expected a…

We may be seeing the first real signs of opposition to the Iran war, and it's coming from a Trump-appointed official.

National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent -- a former Green Beret -- announced his resignation today. Before his nomination, he was chief of staff to Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard..

What's notable about him is that Democrats strongly opposed his nomination as he was called an "extremist" due to America First leanings and frequent appearances in right-wing podcasts. His wife was killed in the previous Trump administration by a suicide bomber in Syria.

His resignation underscores a growing rift within the MAGA movement about US military involvement and alliances.

In a letter on twitter, he…

J.P. Morgan is hosting its Industrials Conference today and airlines are at an interesting cross section of competing factors.

On the upside, demand appears to be booming. Delta CEO Ed Bastian repeatedly highlighted strength in bookings.

"We are seeing strength in every market that we look at," he said and emphasized that last week's sales were up 25% year-over-year. This quarter the company had eight of the 10 best sales days ever and five of those came after the war started. The strong demand spans corporate, international, premium leisure, main cabin and domestic, he said.

On the downside, the jump in oil prices punched a hole in the company's cost structure. Airline stocks have sunk since the start of the conflict as fuel typically…

J.P. Morgan is hosting its Industrials Conference today and airlines are at an interesting cross section of competing factors.

On the upside, demand appears to be booming. Delta CEO Ed Bastian repeatedly highlighted strength in bookings.

"We are seeing strength in every market that we look at," he said and emphasized that last week's sales were up 25% year-over-year. This quarter the company had eight of the 10 best sales days ever and five of those came after the war started. The strong demand spans corporate, international, premium leisure, main cabin and domestic, he said.

On the downside, the jump in oil prices punched a hole in the company's cost structure. Airline stocks have sunk since the start of the conflict as fuel typically…

As North American traders enter the session, markets are relatively mixed. U.S. equities are showing modest divergence in pre-market trading, yields are little changed, and oil prices are higher by roughly $3. The USD initially moved higher before giving those gains back, and is now trading near unchanged levels.

However, as is often the case ahead of a major event, price action is telling the real story. Traders are positioning cautiously ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision, where the central bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged.

On the economic calendar today, pending home sales will be released at 10 AM ET, with expectations at -0.5% versus -0.8% last month (index previously at 70.9).

Geopolitically, tensions remain elevated. The…

• Investors are most long commodities since April 2022; stock market sentiment turns bearish
• Iran's Supreme Leader says "not the right time for peace", US and Israel must be defeated
• Germany March ZEW economic sentiment index -0.5 vs 39.0 expected
• Strait of Hormuz disruption keeps oil prices supported; de-escalation is the only fix
• Italy February final CPI +1.5% vs +1.6% y/y prelim
• Military escorts not a sustainable solution to opening up Strait of Hormuz, says IMO chief
• Gold remains stuck in a tight range as traders await new catalysts to trigger a breakout
• Switzerland February producer and import prices -0.3% vs -0.2% m/m prior
• What are the main events for today?
• One down, six more to go on the week..
• FX option expiries for 17 March 10am New York cut
• <a…

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• Global investors turn bearish as Iran and private credit concerns end "frothy bull" sentiment
• Net 45% of investors expect higher global CPI in the next 12 months, up from 9% a month ago
• Net 17% of investors expect lower short-term rates, lowest since February 2023 and down from 46% a month ago
• Measure of risk sentiment drops to 5.6 from 8.2 a month ago, but well above April 2025's 1.8
• Investors are most long commodities since April 2022 with a net 34% overweight
• Net 53% of investors were overweight emerging-market equities, the highest since February 2021
• Participants had the lowest allocation to consumer discretionary stocks since December 2022
• USD positioning swung rapidly from record underweight a month ago to neutral levels
• Geopolitics and…

• Iran's new Supreme Leader in foreign policy session rejects proposals for 'reducing tensions or seek peace with the US'
• Supreme Leader rejected proposals that were sent to Iran's foreign ministry by two intermediary countries
• Supreme Leader told foreign policy session 'not the right time for peace', US and Israel must be defeated, pay compensation

Iran’s new Supreme Leader has rejected proposals aimed at de-escalating tensions with the United States and Israel, according to a senior Iranian official who spoke to Reuters. During his first foreign policy session, the leader dismissed diplomatic roadmaps delivered to the Iranian Foreign Ministry by two intermediary countries, asserting that now is not the right time for peace.

The official told…

• Prior 58.3
• Current conditions -62.9 vs - 67.3 expected
• Prior -65.9

I had to double check the number because of the huge deviation. This is much lower than expected as the lowest forecast was 30.0. The US-Iran war and the surge in energy prices has certainly played a major role here.

WHAT IS THE ZEW INDEX

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is an influential monthly survey that gauges the economic expectations of financial experts in Germany. It is considered a "leading indicator," meaning it is used to gauge the future health of the German economy, the largest in the Eurozone, about six months in advance.

Unlike the Ifo Business Climate Index (which surveys company managers), the ZEW surveys up to 350 institutional investors and financial…