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Trump is lamenting the lack of help in reopening Hormuz:

Without the U.S.A., NATO IS A PAPER TIGER! They didn't want to join the fight to stop a Nuclear Powered Iran. Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don't want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military manoeuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk. COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER! President DONALD J. TRUMP

There is some generally good news here:

1) The US appears to be willing to do it alone

2) Trump sounds confident it can be done

3) He sounds ready to declare victory

So despite all the unfriendly rhetoric here, this is a…

According to Bloomberg, the UAE has restarted operations at its biggest natural gas processing plant i.e. Habshan Complex after having closed down the facility last week due to Iran's attacks. That at least according to a person familiar with the situation.

That being said, the only operating LNG production plant in the country at Das Island continues to be in more or less idle state. That as shipping along the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted and the UAE cannot export its natural gas out at the moment. And the only reason why it is in idle state i.e. operating at low levels is so that it can allow for a quick restart if and when the strait eventually opens.

For now, the Habshan Complex's processing facility and fuel from Qatar via the…

For some context, the fiscal year 2025 preliminary figure was 5.46%. That was then watered down to 5.25% once we got the final confirmation of the exact average wage hike. It is a normal practice for that to happen, so expect more of the same this time around too. As such, this preliminary 5.26% will be much softer even if it is showing that it is higher than the 5.25% final figure from fiscal year 2025.

As a reminder, the average wage hike in 2023 was 3.80%. And in 2024, it was 5.10% before the 5.25% figure in 2025.

Overall, it's still a strong number relative to what we have seen in the past from Japan. And this makes it three straight fiscal years now that the average wage hike has come above 5%. That in my view and surely to many, is…

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have come out to say that they will be "determined to respond to any threat at the same level as it creates in terms of deterrence". Adding that if the US decides to "hit electricity, then we will hit electricity". And if the US plans attacks on power plants, then Iran will respond by striking Israel's power plants and regional facilities that supply electricity to US bases.

This of course is a response to US president Trump's warning over the weekend. Trump delivered a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran on Saturday, calling for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. And if not, he will order the US military to "hit and obliterate" Iran's power plants - starting with "the biggest one first".

He didn't…

It's a brand new week but the main focus in markets stay on the Middle East. The US-Iran conflict drags on further and the latest development is that US president Trump delivered a warning over the weekend for Iran to "reopen" the Strait of Hormuz. Trump gave a 48-hour ultimatum, which will run its course late in the day today.

Iran has so far responded that they will not back down and are willing to escalate things further. So, that's leaving us to where we are now as the crisis in the region extends. As we go on longer, higher oil prices continue to become more entrenched for global economies and restarting the normalisation process in energy market itself will take a much longer time.

In turn, inflation fears will just continue to boil…

• Warsh faces turbulent Fed transition as inflation, politics and oil shock collide.
• Japan weighs cutting inflation-linked bond buybacks as demand rises
• ICYMI: Fitch sees Brent at $120 if Hormuz closure persists in 2026
• IEA warns Middle East crisis worse than 1970s oil shocks, eyes stock releases
• Saudi Aramco cuts Asia oil supply as Hormuz disruption tightens market
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9041 (vs. estimate at 6.8928)
• Gold gets smashed as oil shock lifts yields, boosts dollar, and crushes rate-cut hopes.
• Japan flags FX intervention risk. Oil shock drives yen volatility and policy response.
• Saudi pipeline bypass eases oil shock, here's what’s next for global supply.
• UK calls emergency COBRA meeting as Iran war lifts…

Bearish for UK bonds (higher yields) and negative for growth outlook; supports inflation expectations and hawkish BoE repricing, with spillover risk to global fixed income markets.

Summary:

• UK PM Starmer convenes emergency “COBRA” meeting on Iran war fallout
• Finance minister Reeves and BoE Governor Bailey to attend
• Focus on energy security, inflation, and economic resilience
• UK particularly exposed due to reliance on imported gas
• Inflation risks seen rising toward ~5% amid energy price surge
• Market pricing shifts toward potential BoE rate hikes
• UK 10-year gilt yields surge above 5% for first time since GFC
• Investor concerns grow over fiscal vulnerability and support measures

The UK government is stepping up its response to the…

Fitch outlook cut puts New Zealand’s fiscal path under scrutiny and lifts yields.

Summary:

• Fitch revises New Zealand outlook to Negative, affirms AA+ rating
• Concerns centre on delayed fiscal consolidation and rising debt
• Government debt projected to peak around 56% of GDP by FY27
• Timeline for return to surplus pushed out to FY30
• Economic recovery expected but risks remain from external shocks
• Iran conflict flagged as inflation and growth risk via energy channel
• Elevated current account deficit and high household debt persist
• NZ bond yields rise to ~1-year highs following outlook downgrade

Fitch Ratings has revised New Zealand’s sovereign outlook to Negative from Stable while affirming its AA+ credit rating, citing growing challenges…

The USD is a little higher in early indications.

Pretty soon wholesale market participants will be getting active and machines will be switched on. Until then, like I said above, its thin and scatty. Take care.

I'll be back with weekend baloney news soon.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Here is the latest from Trump:

We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran: (1) Completely degrading Iranian Missile Capability, Launchers, and everything else pertaining to them. (2) Destroying Iran’s Defense Industrial Base. (3) Eliminating their Navy and Air Force, including Anti Aircraft Weaponry. (4) Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability, and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation, should it take place. (5) Protecting, at the highest level, our Middle Eastern Allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates,…

• Trump says reopening Hormuz "a simple military manoeuver" with "so little risk"
• US made detailed preparations for potential ground troops in Iran - report
• US assessment: Iran could keep Hormuz shut for anywhere from one to six months
• Iran unwilling to discuss Hormuz while under attack - report
• Canada January retail sales +1.1% vs +1.5% expected
• Canada February producer price index +0.4% m/m vs +1.1% expected
• Feds Waller: If oil stays high for months on end, at some point it bleeds into inflation
• Fed's Bowman: I am still concerned about the jobs market
• The Fed funds futures market is now pricing in a 30% chance of a US rate hike
• Trump reportedly mulls occupying Kharg Island to force Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz

Markets:

• Gold down $143 to $4502
• US…