Market News

• France October flash services PMI 48.4 vs 50.7 expected
• Prior 51.2
• France October flash manufacturing PMI 49.3 vs 50.5 expected
• Prior 50.6
• France October flash composite PMI 48.4 vs 50.5 expected
• Prior 51.1

That's not a good sign as the French private sector falls back into contraction in October, amid political and financial concerns. Weighing on activity levels was the sharpest decline in demand for French goods and services since May, which surveyed businesses attributed to heightened uncertainty and economic pressures.

The only good news perhaps for the ECB is that the survey's price gauges decreased from September to signal an easing of input cost and output charge inflation rates.

Looking at the breakdown, manufacturers and service…

●         Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.85%, Shanghai Composite down 1.20% Hang Seng up 0.49% ASX down 0.13%

●        Commodities : Gold at $4,024.85 (-0.89%) Silver at $53.833 (-2.14%), Brent Oil at 113.62 (0.39%), WTI Oil at 100.02 (0.56%)

●        Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.956, UK 10-year yield at 5.3396, Germany 10-year yield at 3.3365

●        (USD)  Unemployment Claims  194K to 200K  expected

U.S. stock futures were little changed on Thursday evening after technology shares tumbled amid concerns that enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) investments may be weakening.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 52 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500…

• Eurostoxx -0.3%
• Germany DAX -0.5%
• France CAC 40 -0.6%
• UK FTSE -0.2%
• Spain IBEX -0.1%
• Italy FTSE MIB flat

European indices are opening slightly lower across the board as the more cautious risk mood carries over from yesterday. The selling pressure isn't quite as intense for now, but there's little reason for investors to be feeling too optimistic either.

The selloff in Wall Street yesterday continues to cast a shadow over broader sentiment, with concerns surrounding AI-related stocks and elevated oil prices keeping investors on edge. US futures are also looking more tepid today, with S&P 500 futures down 0.1% for the time being.

And to kick start the session, economic data isn't offering much comfort either. France's October flash PMI figures were…

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US Tech Stocks Tumble as Treasury Yields Crash – Nasdaq Drops 2.6%

US equity markets experienced another extremely volatile trading session yesterday, with technology stocks taking a significant hit as renewed concerns surrounding the AI sector weighed heavily on investor sentiment. The Nasdaq led the declines, plunging 2.60% to close at 26,008, recording its biggest one-day fall since June. The S&P 500 also came under significant pressure, dropping 1.21% to finish at 7,663, while the Dow managed to hold relatively steady, edging 0.02% higher to close at 52,867. The sharp divergence between the major indices highlighted the extent of the selling pressure in the technology sector, with investors increasingly concerned over elevated…

• Eurozone October flash services PMI 51.7 vs 52.5 expected
• Prior 53.0
• Eurozone October flash manufacturing PMI 52.4 vs 52.7 expected
• Prior 52.9
• Eurozone October flash composite PMI 51.9 vs 52.7 expected
• Prior 53.1

Details to follow...

Let's take a step back and check on the key market drivers this week. The US-Iran conflict is still raging on and geopolitical tensions remain high. So, that is underpinning oil prices once again with WTI crude breaching $100 and Brent crude hitting $114 - its highest since May.

Now, that sounds like a familiar backdrop for the bond market, doesn't it? Higher oil prices mean stronger inflation pressures, which should normally push up Treasury yields. Well, that has not been the case this week.

Instead, Treasury yields have fallen sharply, with 10-year yields even slipping back below the 5% threshold in overnight trading and holding thereabouts since. But wait a second, shouldn't falling yields then buy some relief for stocks?

You would…

• UK September retail sales -0.4% vs -0.1% m/m expected
• Prior +0.5; revised to +0.7%
• UK September retail sales +0.8% vs +1.0% y/y expected
• Prior +2.4%; revised to +2.7%
• UK September retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -0.7% vs -0.1% m/m expected
• Prior +0.6%; revised to +0.9%
• UK September retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +0.8% vs +1.5% y/y expected
• Prior +2.7%; revised to +2.9%

UK retail sales disappointed in September, falling by 0.4% on the month and missing expectations of a 0.1% decline. That comes after a stronger revision to the August number, which saw a 0.7% increase. Having said that, the quarterly picture is still holding up reasonably well as retail sales volumes rose by 0.7% in Q3 compared with the previous quarter.

Looking at the details, the…

There are just a couple of key expiry levels to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

The first one is for USD/JPY at the 157.00 level, which is keeping within less than 15 pips of the spot price. The expiries here could help keep price action anchored around the figure level in the session ahead, especially if the broader risk mood settles down.

But as things stand, overall risk sentiment remains the bigger driver at this stage and stronger yen demand once again could still override any related pull from the expiries.

Meanwhile, there is also one for USD/CHF at the 0.8245 level. The expiries here could offer some magnetic pull if trading conditions turn quieter, although broader dollar and franc flows will remain the bigger…

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