Market News

The U.S. has launched sweeping Section 301 probes into manufacturing overcapacity across 16 trading partners, opening the door to a new wave of tariffs.

Summary:

• The U.S. has launched a Section 301 investigation into 16 trading partners over excess manufacturing capacity.

• Targeted economies include China, the EU, Japan, India, Mexico, Vietnam and Taiwan.

• The probe could lead to new tariffs if unfair trade practices are confirmed.

• The investigation comes after courts struck down elements of Trump’s earlier tariff programme.

• Section 301 gives the U.S. president authority to impose trade penalties after an investigation.

• A second Section 301 probe into goods linked to forced labour could launch soon and may cover around 60 countries.

• The move…

An oil tanker near Iraq’s Umm Qasr port erupted in flames, with preliminary reports pointing to a possible direct attack on the vessel.

Some reports say its multiple tankers on fire.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

An oil tanker near Iraq’s Umm Qasr port erupted in flames, with preliminary reports pointing to a possible direct attack on the vessel.

Some reports say its multiple tankers on fire.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• Stocks finish mixed as energy surges and yields rise
• EU warns that the US war on Iran could push EU inflation above 3%
• Bitcoin continues to waffle up and down,, but the bias is to the upside
• Trump: US military is way ahead of schedule
• Iran's President sets maximalist conditions for ending the war
• US February monthly budget -307.5B vs -75.85B expected
• Iran has threatened to strike the US west coast - report
• U.S. Treasury sells $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.217%
• Trump administration will announce new trade investigations - report
• Macron said it will take a "few weeks" to coordinate Hormuz ship escorts
• EIA weekly US crude oil inventories +3824K vs +1055K expected
• Trump suggests there's "practically nothing left" to target in Iran,…

EU officials warn a sustained energy shock from Middle East tensions could push inflation above 3% in 2026 and slow economic growth across the bloc.

Summary:

• EU warns inflation could exceed 3% in 2026 if oil and gas prices remain elevated.

• Brent crude near $100 per barrel would significantly worsen the inflation outlook.

• EU economy chief Valdis Dombrovskis says growth could fall 0.4 percentage points below the 1.4% forecast.

• Energy shocks and supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict could weigh on activity.

• The International Energy Agency plans to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves to ease oil prices.

• Higher inflation risks may force the European Central Bank to consider further rate hikes despite weaker growth.

The…

There is nothing on the schedule of events to move around markets too much.

As for the war, this raises more questions than answers:

• Trump suggests there's "practically nothing left" to target in Iran, war will end soon

Q1 is why the Strait of Hormuz is not yet safe if this is the case. Anyway, this guy is not known as a straight shooter, best ignored.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

• Says oil will be coming down
• Says the US has hit 28 mine ships
• They've hit Iran's leadership twice

We've heard all this before, just announce the end already. Try to make some kind of peace deal where ships can get through.

At the end of the day, what will this have really accomplished? Forcing Iran to build a new generation of weapons? Them realizing that Hormuz is their real leverage point?

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• Says oil will be coming down
• Says the US has hit 28 mine ships
• They've hit Iran's leadership twice

We've heard all this before, just announce the end already. Try to make some kind of peace deal where ships can get through.

At the end of the day, what will this have really accomplished? Forcing Iran to build a new generation of weapons? Them realizing that Hormuz is their real leverage point?

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

This is from Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian:

Talking to leaders of Russia and Pakistan, I reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to peace in the region. The only way to end this war—ignited by the Zionist regime & US—is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int'l guarantees against future aggression.

Those are certainly some aspirational demands, similar to the kinds of things that Ukraine has asked for. The US counter offer is likely "we'll stop dropping bombs on you" and Iran will almost certainly take it.

That said, there is always the risk that Iran wants to keep fighting and senses leverage in the Hormuz.

Also notable is a separate report that said Pezeshkian has had no contact with Mojtaba Khamenei. So it's not…

• Prior was -95.0B
• Last Feb was -137B
• The fiscal year-to-date deficit is $1.004 trillion vs $1.147 trillion a year earlier
• Outlays $621B vs $603B a year earlier
• Receipts $313B vs $296B a year earlier
• Net customs receipts of $26.59B

When you factor in the tariff refunds that are coming, the deficit is on track to break the prior year. The war expense won't help either, though it's fairly negligible in the US scale. There could be some positive accounting around the SPR release but it will eventually need to be refilled.

The Monthly Treasury Statement, published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, provides a detailed accounting of federal government receipts, outlays, and the resulting surplus or deficit for each month. It serves as the primary…

Iran has threatened to strike the US west coast with offensive drones in retaliation for American military operations, according to an FBI warning issued to California police departments.

This is an ABC News report and it reads to me like the kind of standard thing that police dept's would send out at a time like this, not some kind of imminent operation.

There is some risk-off trading on this and that kind of attack is the kind of thing that could draw the US into a long, messy ground war.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

• High-yield. 4.217%
• WI level at the time of the auction 4.210%
• Tail 0.7 basis points versus 6 month average of 0.3 basis points
• Bid to cover 2.45X versus 6 month average of 2.48X 6 month average of
• Directs 12.8% vs 6 month average of 20.3%
• Indirects 74.5% versus 6 month average of 69.3%
• Dealers 12.7% versus 6 month average of 10.3%

Auction Grade: C-

The 10-year note auction came in with below-average demand, though it was not as weak as the 3-year auction held yesterday.

The auction tailed by 0.7 basis points above the six-month average, indicating investors required a slightly higher yield to take down the supply. The bid-to-cover ratio was roughly in line with the six-month average, suggesting overall participation was steady but not particularly…