Market News

• Iran has laid 'a few dozen' mines in the Strait of Hormuz - report
• Trump: We have no reports of Iran placing mines in the Hormuz Strait
• US intel sees signs that Iran is preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz - report
• US Energy Sec removes video saying the US Navy escorted a tanker through Strait of Hormuz
• US February existing home sales 4.09m vs 3.89m expected
• The U.S. Treasury sold $58 billion of 3 year notes at a high yield of 3.579%
• US February NFIB small business optimism index 98.8 vs 99.6 expected

Markets:

• WTI crude oil down $7.95 to $86.85
• Gold up $60 to $5196
• US 10-year yields up 1.8 bps to 4.15%
• S&P 500 down 0.3%
• Bitcoin up $1013 to $70,015
• AUD leads, EUR lags

Oil is the tail that's wagging the dog at the moment and what it mess it was…

Do you ever get the sense that someone is playing games?

CNN reported just minutes ago that Iran has placed a few dozen mines in the Strait of Hormuz. They cited "according to two people familiar with US intelligence reporting on the issue", who were unnamed but they were no doubt sourced (and not made up).

Now Trump is saying there are no reports of mines?

If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY! If for any reason mines were placed, and they are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before. If, on the other hand, they remove what may have been placed, it will be a giant step in the right direction!…

Oil prices are rising once again after a CNN report said Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

"Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint that carries about one-fifth of all crude oil, according to two people familiar with US intelligence reporting on the issue," CNN writes.

The report says that only 'a few dozen' are in place so far but that Iran is using small boats 'in recent days'. This echoes the prior report from CBS that said Iran was 'preparing' mines but takes it a step further.

The report from CNN said Iran could deploy hundreds more mines and the CBS report said it had 3-6000 mines.

The issues is that de-mining is a time-intensive task at best and that could…

• High Yield: 3.579% vs 6-month avg. 3.563%

• WI level at the time of the auction 3.568%

• Tail 1.1 bps vs 6 month average of -0.6 bps

• Bid-to-Cover 2.55X vs 6 month average of 2.69x

• Dealers 19.5% vs 6 month average of 10.5%

• Directs 20.7% versus 6 month average of 25.3%

• Indirects: 59.8% versus 6 month average of 64.3%

AUCTION GRADE: D

Not a good auction as the dealers were saddled with 19.5% while above the 10.5% 6 month average. The tail was 1.1 basis points which was also well above the -0.6 basis point average. Both domestic and international demand was well below the averages. The only reason it indicated a grade of F, is the auction did not fail. That is, there was enough bidders to buy it. However, for a 3 year note auction, the demand was tepid…

• Prior was 3.91m (worst reading since 2024 but revised to 4.02m)
• Home sales change +1.7% vs -8.4% prior
• Days on the market 47 vs 46 prior
• Inventory at months 3.8 vs 3.7 months prior
• Median prices $398,000 vs $396,800 prior

US existing home sales, published monthly by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), measure completed transactions of previously owned single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops based on closings reported through Multiple Listing Services. Because roughly 90% of home purchases involve existing rather than new properties, the series is widely regarded as one of the most important barometers of housing market health and, by extension, broader consumer spending.

The US housing market spent much of 2025 in a…

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth held a briefing at the Pentagon today and said:

• Today will be the hardest day of strikes yet
• Iran yesterday fired its lowest amount of missiles
• Iran made a big mistake by targeting neighbours
• Objectives are to destroy Iran's navy and defense industrial base
• Iran stands alone and is badly losing

Separately, a top US general said the US is looking at options if it's tasked with escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

Eyes are mostly on Trump after yesterday's re-framing of the 4-5 week timeline, saying they're far ahead of that. That was clearly a TACO due to the drop in stock markets and jump in oil. In response, we saw the mother of all reversals in the crude market. Today that's continued with WTI down…

• Nasdaq rebounds as oil prices ease and Trump suggests the war could end soon. What's next?
• US February NFIB small business optimism index 98.8 vs 99.6 expected
• ECB policymakers stress patience, assess if energy price shock is temporary or not
• French finance minister says "not there yet" with regards to release of oil reserves
• The risk mood continues to perk up as we get into European trading
• Gold remains stuck in a tight range as traders await new catalysts to trigger a breakout
• AUD/USD already looking to eye the highs for the year as the market mood picks up
• What are the main events for today?
• There is 180 million barrels of disruption so far, says Saudi Aramco CEO
• RBA policymaker Hauser says oil price and Middle East volatility is a "genuine…

• Prior 99.3
• Full report here

This is a minor setback but the index remains above its 52-year average of 98. This is not a market moving report and it certainly won't be now that the focus is solely on the US-Iran war.

NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said: "Although optimism declined slightly, small businesses report feeling more certain in February as they look toward the coming months. High sales and increased profits made February a more positive month for many owners, but competition from large businesses is putting stress on Main Street firms as they navigate the current economic climate. Labour quality and sales improved."

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is a monthly economic indicator that measures the "pulse" of small…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 10 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Asian markets traded mixed-to-higher as China’s blockbuster trade surplus ($213.62B, exports +21.8%) offset soft imports and supported risk sentiment, while Japan’s below-consensus GDP (0.1% QoQ) lifted Nikkei 225 +3.26% and yen; most impacted were JPY pairs, AUD (China trade sensitivity), Nikkei exporters, and Hang Seng tech amid global cues.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders should monitor escalating Middle East tensions, particularly U.S.-Iran conflicts, driving oil prices toward triple digits (Brent nearing $100/barrel) and boosting safe-haven demand for gold near $5,100/oz, while pressuring equities and…