Market News

Earlier on Monday Trump did a TACO for the benefit of markets, sending oil down from its highs and boosting stocks:

• US Trump: The war could be over soon

He has since spoken at a Republican conference where he has delivered much more mixed messaging.

Summary:

• Donald Trump delivered hawkish remarks on the war with Iran at a Republican conference, signalling the U.S. intends to pursue a decisive outcome.

• Trump said the U.S. has already achieved major battlefield success but insisted the conflict will continue until Iran is fully defeated.

• He claimed Iran’s drone and missile capabilities are being “demolished” by ongoing military operations.

• Trump argued Iran had been preparing attacks against the U.S., Israel and the broader Middle East before the…

• US stocks rebound into the close as Trump signals war could be over soon
• US Trump: The war could be over soon
• Crude oil futures settle up $3.87 and $94.77
• The good news? Crude oil is -16% off the high.The bad news? It is 10% higher on the day
• Tech turmoil: Financial stocks slump while energy sees a surge
• White House is mulling releasing oil from the SPR, but no formal decision has been made.
• Aureus Greenway shares soar on Trump-backed drone merger
• S&P 500 falls below December lows, opening the door for a retest of November's trough
• The USD is higher but off the highs for the day. What next technically?
• investingLive European markets wrap: Oil prices come off the boil, eyes on G7/IEA action
• Rate cut bets evaporate amid surging oil prices but rate…

The focus is of course the warmongers, not the data. Nevertheless it's a busy data agenda.

We'll get revised GDP from Japan, for Q4 2025. The preliminary reading for this was disappointing. In brief, from the day of the flash data:

Japan eked out weak Q4 growth, but momentum remained weak:

• Q4 GDP barely positive, rising 0.1% q/q and 0.2% annualised, well below expectations.

• Private consumption slowed, up 0.1% q/q amid persistent food price pressures.

• Capex underwhelmed, increasing just 0.2% versus forecasts of 0.8%.

• Exports fell 0.3%, with external demand contributing zero to overall growth.

• GDP deflator rose 3.4% y/y, highlighting ongoing inflation pressures.

Inflationary dynamics remained firm, with the GDP deflator rising 3.4% year-on-year,…

Major US stock indices are rebounding after Trump said that the war could be over soon. He also said that he may look to lower sanctions on Russian oil.

He said he is thinking about taking over the Strait of Hormuz and he has someone in mind to replace the Supreme Leader. Pres. Trump will give a news conference at 5:30 PM>

That sent oil prices lower, and US yields lower as well. The 10 year yield which was close to 4.20% at its highest today is trading at 4.105%. Crude oil which reached the near $120 ($119.48 was the high), traded as low as $81.19. The current price is trading at $87, or -4.76% on the day

The gains are led by the Nasdaq index. A look at the final numbers shows:

• Dow industrial average +239.19 points or 0.50% at…

Pres. Trump has told CBS news: "The war could be over soon"

He says that the Iran War is very complete, pretty much"

• They have no Navy, no communications, they got no Air Force.
• The US is very far ahead of his initial 4 – 5 week estimated timeframe.
• Says that ships are moving through thet Strait of Hormuz right now, but he is thinking about taking it over

The NASDAQ is now up 300 points or 1.33%. The S&P index is up 0.83% and the Dow industrial average is up 0.60%.

Crude oil is now down $-6.60 or -7.17% at $84.67

There is a report that the White House is mulling releasing oil from the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), but no formal decision has been made.

According to Politico there is fierce opposition to tapping the SPR. Those who oppose tapping the reserve say a release would solve what they consider the underlying problem (war?).

The Trump administration was critical of the by the administration for tapping the SPR after Russia invaded Ukraine. The SPR was at 394,000 thousand barrels at the start of the Trump term. The price of oil went to $55 on a number of dips since then.

The price of crude oil is trading above and below $100 today. The price reached a high of $119.48 overnight. The current US SPR is at 415,000 thousand barrels currently…

Shares of Aureus Greenway Holdings (NASDAQ: AUGS) surged roughly 55% after the Wall Street Journalreported that the company will merge with Powerus, a drone manufacturer backed by the sons of President Trump.

According to the report, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. support Powerus through their investment vehicle American Ventures. The deal will take place through a reverse merger, allowing Powerus to become publicly traded on the Nasdaq in the coming months.

Powerus, a West Palm Beach, Florida-based drone company founded last year, has expanded rapidly, acquiring three companies in the past six months.

The three companies Powerus acquired in the past six months are:

• Kaizen Aerospace, Inc. – focuses on heavy-lift unmanned aerial systems…

Headlines:

• G7 members, IEA reportedly to discuss on joint release of emergency oil reserves
• Oil price surge relents as G7 mulls coordination with IEA to release emergency oil reserves
• Oil prices ease after record jump as G7 considers emergency reserve release. Is it enough?
• Everything that Trump hates is what is happening in markets
• Japan reportedly calls on oil storage bases to prepare for release of stockpiles
• Bahrain's major oil refinery also reportedly struck by Iranian drone attack
• European indices continue to tumble as Middle East conflict weighs further
• Eurozone March Sentix investor confidence -3.1 vs -5.0 expected
• Germany January industrial orders -11.1% vs -4.5% m/m expected
• Germany January industrial production -0.5% vs +1.0% m/m…

• Prior 4.2

No surprises there as the index drops off amid the initial impact of the US-Iran conflict. I would expect investor sentiment to worsen further if given the chance to see another survey after the latest surge in oil and gas prices. For some context, the survey here was conducted from 5 March to 7 March. Sentix notes that the decline here was the "first indication of the economic situation following the outbreak of the Iran war".

Adding that:

"This casts considerable doubt on the recent upturn in the EU. The energy price shock and geopolitical risks are dampening the previously increased optimism for the Eurozone economy."

The expectations index also fell sharply from 15.8 in February to 3.5 in March. Meanwhile, the current situation…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 6.91%, Shanghai Composite up 1.13%, Hang Seng down 2.64% ASX down 3.43%
• Commodities : Gold at $5,094.61 (-1.20%) Silver at $83.060 (-1.48%), Brent Oil at $116.13 (25.22%), WTI Oil at $114.01 (27.79%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.205, UK 10-year yield at 4.6340, Germany 10-year yield at 2.8643

• (USD) Core Retail Sales m/m  0.0%  to 0.1%  expected
• (USD) Retail Sales m/m -0.2%  to -0.3%  expected
• (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change  -92K  to 58K  expected
• (USD) Unemployment Rate  4.4%  to 4.3%  expected

Asian stock markets are tumbling on Monday following negative cues from Wall Street on Friday, as investors remain cautious…