Market News

• China gold reserves at the end of February 2026: 74.22 million troy ounces
• In January 2026: 74.19 million troy ounces
• China gold reserves value at the end of February 2026: $387.59 billion
• In January 2026: $369.58 billion

Is anyone really surprised? China has arguably the biggest buyer out there for a while now. And that also might be evident with the kind of price action we've seen with gold in the past week.

The precious metal has been bid up in every Asian trading session all through the week, only to fall back afterwards later in the day. From yesterday: The bid for gold in Asia has been relentless this week

It still wasn't enough to see gold succumb to a 2% weekly loss though, its first weekly drop in five and only the second one so far…

• US stocks close sharply lower. Indices are down for the week.
• Fed's Hammack: Dollar dominance remains intact as Fed stays patient
• Fed's Collins: Expects the Fed rate target to hold steady for some time
• U.S. to launch $20B reinsurance facility for Gulf shipping
• Iran launches attack on US forces in Bahrain, and in Baghdad.
• ECB Schnabel: ECB is still in a good place, but war increases upside inflation risks
• Kansas City Fed Pres. Schmid: Businesses are pausing on hiring
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 estimate 2.1% versus 3.2% previously
• Fed Gov. Miran: Hesitant to read too much into one month job report
• Crude oil futures stretch toward $90 a barrel
• US business inventories for December 0.1% versus 0.1% expected
• Fed's Goolsbee: The jobs report was a tough miss.…

U.S. officials are set to launch a $20 billion reinsurance facility designed to support Gulf shipping and help restart maritime cargo coverage. The program is expected to be unveiled on Friday by DFC Chief Executive Ben Black and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

According to the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, the initiative will partner with U.S. insurance companies that have already been identified to participate in the program, helping provide additional insurance capacity for vessels operating in the region.

The problem is how many warships are available to usher the ships through the Straits of Hormuz and at what risk?

Nevertheless, oil prices have come off and trades back toward the $90 level. At the corrective…

Reports that Iran is launching attacks on US forces in Bahrain, and also attacking military base housing US diplomatic centered near Baghdad international airport. The price of crude oil is extending above the $92 level. The high price of just reached $92.61. The current price is trading at $92.20. That's up $11.19 or 13.81% on the day.

Earlier today, I highlighted the 5-minute chart and outlined levels that would tilt the bias more toward the downside and give sellers greater control. A key requirement was a move below the 38.2%–50% retracement of the most recent rally. The corrective move off the high dipped into that retracement zone but quickly found willing buyers, keeping the downside momentum in check.

Since then, the price has…

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q1 has declined to 2.1% from 3.2%.

• The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2026 is 2.1 percent on March 6, down from 3.0 percent on March 2. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.8 percent and 7.9 percent, respectively, to 1.8 percent and 6.8 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, March 12. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming…

For what it is worth, the US business and retail inventories for the month of December was released:

• Business inventories rose 0.1% versus 0.1% expected. Prior month was revised lower to 0.0% from 0.1%.
• Retail inventories rose 0.4% versus 0.2% last month.

Details:

• Total sales (manufacturers’ shipments + distributive trade): $1,965.9B in December

  • +0.5% m/m vs November 2025

  • +3.2% y/y vs December 2024

• Inventories-to-sales ratio: 1.36 in December

  • 1.39 in December 2024 (ratio declined year over year)

It is early March, so the December data is old as the Census Department continues to catch up after the government shutdown..

• Prior was 0.0%

Details:

• Ex-autos 0.0% vs 0.0% expected
• Prior ex autos 0.0%
• Ex autos and gas +0.3% vs 0.0% prior (revised to +0.1%)
• Control group +0.3%% vs +0.2% expected
• Prior control -0.1% (revised to 0.0%)
• Retail sales y/y +3.2% vs +2.4% prior

This is January data, so it's old news and it's not going to change anything for the market as the focus remains on the US-Iran war and the surging energy prices.

The NFP report is also stealing the show with the huge downside surprise in the headline jobs number and the uptick in the unemployment rate.

What does the Retail Sales report measure?

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales report, published by the U.S. Census Bureau, provides the earliest monthly snapshot of consumer spending across retail sectors.…

• Prior 130K revise to 126K
• nonfarm payroll -92K vs +50 9K estimate
• December was 48K. November was 41K
• Two month that revision:
• Unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.3% expected. Prior month 4.3%.
• Average hourly earnings 0.4% versus 0.3% expected. Prior month 0.4%
• average hourly earnings YoY 3.8% versus 3.7% expected. Prior month 3.7%.
• Participation rate 62.0% versus 62.1% (revise from 62.5%)
• U6 unemployment rate 7.9% versus 8.1% (revised from 8.0%)

There was some weather. There was some strike effects of around -30K (which will come back).

Headlines:

• Oil prices resume climb to start European morning trade
• Qatar warns that the Middle East conflict could disrupt energy exports for weeks to months
• Qatar reportedly offers to lease LNG tankers as Ras Laffan plant stays shut
• What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
• Japan reportedly mulls releasing national oil reserves amid Middle East conflict
• Japan finance minister says will respond nimbly to latest market movements
• BOJ policymaker Himino: Underlying inflation gradually accelerating to 2% target
• ECB policymaker Sleijpen: We can tolerate a small inflation overshoot
• Eurozone Q4 final GDP +0.2% vs +0.3% q/q second estimate
• UK February Halifax house prices +0.3% vs +0.3% m/m expected

Markets:

• WTI crude oil up 6% at $86.15, Brent…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 06 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Markets opened amid ongoing Middle East tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict escalation, with no major new macroeconomic data releases specifically highlighted for that day, though ongoing China National People’s Congress meetings influenced sentiment. Escalating geopolitical risks drove oil prices higher toward $80 per barrel and boosted safe-haven demand for gold and the US dollar, while Asian equities extended declines following Wall Street’s prior drop.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Traders should closely monitor the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, entering its sixth day, which has driven oil prices higher,…