Market News

Middle East Conflict Rocks Markets – Brent Crude up 7%

Global markets experienced elevated volatility overnight as tensions in the Middle East continued to intensify, driving sharp intraday price swings across asset classes. Despite the unstable backdrop, US equity markets proved relatively resilient by the close. The Dow Jones slipped just 0.15% to finish at 48,904, the S&P 500 edged up 0.04% to 6,881, and the Nasdaq outperformed modestly, gaining 0.36% to close at 22,748. Currency markets delivered less conventional risk-off dynamics. Rather than benefiting from safe-haven demand, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc weakened, while the US dollar did rally as expected, with the DXY up 0.96% to 98.59. Fixed income markets came under…

IC Markets Global – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 03 March 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

The main driver was the continued escalation of Middle‑East tensions involving Iran, which pushed oil prices notably higher and reinforced a risk‑off tone in equities while boosting traditional safe‑haven assets. Japanese 10‑year yields rose slightly as the conflict stoked inflation‑risk concerns, and the dollar edged up versus a broad basket of Asian currencies, including the Korean won and Indian rupee, which saw the heaviest FX losses on the session.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

As European and U.S. trading sessions commence, traders face a risk-off environment fueled by Middle East conflicts boosting oil above…

IC Markets Global – Asia Fundamental Forecast |03 March 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

U.S. markets reacted defensively overnight to resilient ISM Manufacturing data highlighting inflation risks (prices at 70.5) combined with U.S.-Iran conflict escalation, causing stock index futures to drop over 1%, oil to spike 8-13% on supply fears, and gold/USD to rally as safe havens, amplifying volatility ahead of the Monday open.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders face a volatile open amid escalating US-Iran conflict, driving oil prices toward $80 per barrel and boosting safe-haven gold, with regional equities like Tokyo’s Nikkei already down sharply. Key data includes the US ISM Manufacturing PMI releasing early…

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 2.37%, Shanghai Composite down 0.07%, Hang Seng down 0.39% ASX down 1.41%
• Commodities : Gold at $5,377.01 (1.24%) Silver at $90.275 (1.65%), Brent Oil at $79.37 (2.06%), WTI Oil at $72.36 (1.64%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.045, UK 10-year yield at 4.3710, Germany 10-year yield at 2.7081

• (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI  52.4  to 51.7  expected

Asian stock markets are trading mostly lower on Tuesday, tracking mixed cues from Wall Street and rising concerns over the escalating Middle East conflict. While early losses reflected caution, some investors used the dip to accumulate stocks at lower levels. Crude oil prices have surged…

With all that is happening in the Middle East, let's not forget that there is also an ongoing trade war between the US and the rest of the world. The Supreme Court shooting down Trump's reciprocal tariffs has changed the landscape here dramatically. And that is making for a bit of an awkward setting ahead of Trump's visit to Beijing at the end of this month.

The latest news via Bloomberg is saying that US and China trade negotiators will be scheduling to meet some time in mid-March. That suggests that the Trump-Xi summit will be moving forward despite the situation in the Middle East.

Of note, US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent and China vice premier He Lifeng are reported to meet in Paris at the end of next week. The two are expected to…

The latest update from the US Central Command:

"US forces have destroyed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command and control facilities, Iranian air defense capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and military airfields during sustained operations. We will continue to take decisive action against imminent threats posed by the Iranian regime."

At first read, this should mean that Iran's threats would be severely incapacitated. However, everyone likes to play up their victories in a time of war. So, we'll see in time I guess.

The conflict continues to rage on but barring any further major escalation, markets might already be eager to move on. The social media revolution has created such an echo chamber that the world becomes largely…

The latest update from the US Central Command:

"US forces have destroyed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command and control facilities, Iranian air defense capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and military airfields during sustained operations. We will continue to take decisive action against imminent threats posed by the Iranian regime."

At first read, this should mean that Iran's threats would be severely incapacitated. However, everyone likes to play up their victories in a time of war. So, we'll see in time I guess.

The conflict continues to rage on but barring any further major escalation, markets might already be eager to move on. The social media revolution has created such an echo chamber that the world becomes largely…

The market is trying to suss out what the plan is for Iran.

Yesterday there was an interview with John Bolton that emphasized that Trump is impulsive and likes to improvise. Trump himself also outlined a 4-5 week timeline, which suggests there is a plan.

What's less clear are the goals of the mission, which might be as simple as wrecking Iran's military infrastructure. But what if Iran keeps on firing drones and missiles? What if it continues to threaten or attack its neighbours?

War can always go sideways, much like it has for Russia in Ukraine. So far Iran doesn't appear to have much support for foreign powers so maybe this turns out differently but it's also hard to see any regime change in Iran without changing anything on the ground. It…

• Expected was +5.0% (some at 5.5%)
• Prior was -14.9%
• Private house approvals +1.1% vs +0.4% prior
• Building approvals +8.7% y/y vs +13.3% prior

This is a sharp two-month drop in construction activity but think of it more as a normalization. Australian dwelling approvals were characterised by significant monthly volatility through 2025, driven almost entirely by the multi-unit segment. The headline seasonally adjusted series swung from +12.0% in September to -6.4% in October, then surged 15.2% in November — reaching a near four-year high of 18,406 dwellings — before reversing sharply with a 14.9% decline in December to 15,542 units.

The pattern reflects the lumpy nature of apartment and higher-density project approvals, which can swing 25-35% in a…

• Prior was 2.6%
• Jobs-to-applicants ratio 1.18 vs 1.19 expected
• Prior ratio 1.19

Japan's unemployment rate held at 2.6% for four consecutive months through December, up from 2.4% in June and a cycle low of 2.2% in mid-2024. While 2.6% remains low by international standards, the gradual upward drift represents a notable shift in a labour market that had been tightening steadily since the pandemic and that continued in January with a 2.7% reading.

The jobs-to-applicants ratio reinforces the picture of modest cooling. The December reading edged up to 1.19 from 1.18 in October and November — the lowest level since January 2022. The ratio peaked above 1.30 in late 2023 and has declined steadily as employers grow more cautious amid elevated input…

New Zealand building consents rose 1.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, clawing back some of December's 4.5% decline. The monthly number is fine but the real story here is in the annual figures — and for the first time in a while, there's something constructive to talk about.

In the year ended January 2026, 36,944 new homes were consented, up 9.3% from a year earlier. That's a meaningful turn after two years of relentless declines that took the pipeline from nearly 50,000 consents down to the mid-33,000s. We're not back to boom-era levels but the bleeding has clearly stopped and the recovery is gaining traction.

Multi-unit homes are doing the heavy lifting. Townhouses and flats rose 14% on the year to 16,175 consents while…