Market News

• Eurostoxx -0.8%
• Germany DAX -0.7%
• France CAC 40 -1.1%
• UK FTSE 100 -0.5%
• Spain IBEX -1.2%
• Italy FTSE MIB -1.0%

It's rough out there in Europe to start the week, with major indices firmly in the red at the open. That is in contrast to what we're seeing in US futures, which are enjoying a decent bounce following last week's heavy losses. So, what's the deal with Europe today?

Well, the violent protests in France over the weekend are adding another layer of uncertainty to an already difficult political and fiscal situation. And that unease is also being clearly reflected in the bond market at the moment. The yield spread between French and German 10-year government bonds has widened back to around 145 bps, as investors continue to demand a hefty…

IC – Europe Fundamental Forecast | 19 October 2026

What happened in the Asia session?

Asia’s session is being driven by stronger-than-expected Chinese growth, expectations of future BOJ rate increases, falling oil prices, and weakness in technology shares. China’s data could support the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, and industrial commodities, although the weak property sector limits optimism. The yen remains sensitive to BOJ signals, while the euro faces pressure from French unrest and the dollar. Oil is under pressure from the possibility of additional Russian supply, but tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain a significant upside risk.

What does it mean for the European & US sessions?

European and U.S. traders should…

IC – Asia Fundamental Forecast | 19 October 2026

What happened in the U.S. session?

The main theme from the U.S. session on Friday, 16 October, was a weaker dollar as expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike faded. At the same time, concerns about AI-related investments increased pressure on technology stocks and raised broader market-risk concerns. Traders should focus on the dollar, Treasury yields, gold, major currency pairs, and oil prices as the new week begins. The next important U.S. releases include housing data on Tuesday and further growth and inflation indicators later in the week.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Asian traders should focus on China’s stronger-than-expected growth, elevated oil prices, Federal…

This week will start off with traders paying attention to Canada's inflation data which could provide hints on the BoC's next policy move.

On Tuesday, the U.K. will release its average earnings index 3m/y, claimant count change, and the unemployment rate. In the U.S., the main releases will be the ADP weekly employment change, building permits, housing starts, and pending home sales m/m.

Wednesday will bring the U.K. inflation data, while Thursday the focus will shift to New Zealand's inflation. The U.S. will also release unemployment claims.

Finally, on Friday, Australia, the U.K., the Eurozone, and the U.S. will publish flash manufacturing and services PMIs. Japan will release its national core CPI y/y, while the U.K. and Canada will…

Gold looks poised to make another run at the $4,200 mark to start the new week, with buyers finding some encouragement from falling Treasury yields and softer oil prices. While the bounce since the second half of last week looks encouraging, I would argue that the bond market will still have the final say on whether this recovery has more room to run.

Looking at the daily chart, we can see that gold has been trying to establish a base around $4,100 after the sharp retreat in late September. The drop is also somewhat defended by technical support from the 78.6 Fib retracement level around $4,117. And while buyers have managed to keep price action supported above that level, they haven't quite found enough conviction to firmly push back…

●         Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.73%, Shanghai Composite up 0.16% Hang Seng up 0.52% ASX up 0.22%

●        Commodities : Gold at $4,196.40 (0.36%) Silver at $57.823 (0.89%), Brent Oil at 107.87 (-1.81%), WTI Oil at 97.46 (-1.58%)

●        Rates : US 10-year yield at 5.067, UK 10-year yield at 5.3776, Germany 10-year yield at 3.4109

●        (USD)  Capacity Utilization Rate

         76.9% to 76.5%  expected

U.S. stock futures rose early Monday as investors cautiously returned to equities following last week’s sell-off in artificial intelligence-related shares.

Nasdaq 100 futures gained 1.32%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures advanced 0.53%, or…

US Stocks Slide Again – Nasdaq Drops 2.14% as Oil Surges

US equity markets finished sharply lower on Friday as investors continued to reduce exposure to technology stocks ahead of the key Q3 earnings season. The Nasdaq led the declines, falling 2.14% to close at 26,140, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.09% to finish at 7,659. The Dow Jones performed relatively better but still lost 0.34% to close at 52,002. Investors remain cautious heading into a busy period for corporate earnings, with concerns over elevated interest rates, persistent inflation and increasing geopolitical uncertainty continuing to weigh on market sentiment.

US Treasury yields were mixed across the curve as traders continued to digest last week’s stronger-than-expected…

There is just one key expiry level to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.

That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1200 level, with the strike holding roughly 30 pips from the spot price. The expiries here could offer some attraction if price action starts drifting lower during the session ahead, and that could anchor price action around 1.1200 going into the cut.

Having said that, the broader market direction will still be dictated primarily by Treasury yields and dollar sentiment for the most part. As such, it is unlikely that expiries would be able to drive a sustained move on its own.

Besides that, there isn't much else on the board for today but there will be a big one to watch for EUR/USD at the 1.1265 level. The expiries…

US futures are faring better to start the new week, taking some relief after the beating suffered last week. Tech stocks in particular were battered hard, with the Nasdaq snapping a four-week winning streak to end the week down by over 4%. The S&P 500 also fell by roughly 2%, its worst weekly showing since June.

But so far today, things are looking up again. Nasdaq futures are up 1.4% while S&P 500 futures are up 0.8% on the day. So, what's changed over the weekend?

For one, the bond market seems to be offering up more breathing room for broader markets. 10-year Treasury yields are down slightly to 5.06% now, helped by softer oil prices amid prospects of easing Russian sanctions. So, that is taking some pressure off richly valued tech…